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Marketpulse

Market Pulse

It is tempting to blame recent market volatility on politics. Trade tensions, Mideast missile strikes, White House turnover, scandals – who could blame the market for needing a little Prozac. But any role politics plays in torpedoing market calm is a supporting one. What’s really propelling the action are dynamics reconfiguring the world’s economy in […]

Market Pulse

In coming months we’ll be watching three things especially closely: the yuan, the price of oil, and market leadership. Best-case scenario would be a rising yuan, relatively steady oil, and leadership shifting to smaller-cap stocks. A yuan rising relative to the dollar might resolve various trade irritants by making Chinese exports more expensive and U.S. […]

Market Pulse

The investment world is complex, which is why analysts and technicians look for data points from different areas to confirm one another. Dow Theory, for instance, asserts a bull or bear market comes only when the industrial and transportation indexes are in sync. Today multiple data points from multiple areas confirm inflation is headed higher. […]

Market Pulse

The most cursed phrase in investing is “this time it’s different.” But this time, it really is different. I’m not referring to the spectacular rise in cryptocurrencies, which I expect will follow well-trodden paths and end badly. Rather, I’m talking about the commodities uptrend (see right). It has the underpinnings to keep going with no […]

Market Pulse

In 2018, led by developing countries, global growth should tick up to 3.7%. U.S. growth should rise too, though to a more tepid 2.5%. Still, along with tax cuts that’s enough to ensure considerably higher corporate profits. And the biggest worry isn’t a worry. While forecasters continue to warn about excessive corporate debt in China, […]

Market Pulse

The holidays are coming just when we need them most. Seasonal strength may serve to cushion political and economic jitters that are starting to translate into a bit more market volatility. If so, the market should see nothing worse than a 3 to 5 percent setback over the next couple of months. True, 2016’s rough […]

Market Pulse

We mostly agree with the bullish case. While P/Es are above average, inflation is well below average, and growth, if anything, is picking up steam. You have to go back to the 1920s to find a comparable period of decent growth and very low inflation. Remember, stocks go up either when P/Es expand – which […]

Market Pulse

Though we think the market’s uptrend is intact, we’ll note some caveats. First, the background for stocks is almost too good, with growth accelerating and inflation absent. After all, as the saying goes, markets climb a wall of worry. If there are no worries – no background conditions that can improve – the market is […]

Market Pulse

For markets, boring isn’t bad. Since the November election, while the S&P 500 has climbed about 16 percent, there have been only four days when the market changed by as much as 1 percent up or down. By contrast between May 1999 and March 2000, which marked the last 15 percent of the tech bubble, […]

Market Pulse

Maybe it has always been the way of the world that the big get bigger and the rich get richer. But it seems even more pronounced today.

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