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Hot Takes

    1/07/26 11:38am - If the across-the-board strength reflected by the ADP jobs survey for December is evident in this Friday's civilian employment numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Fed may have a hard time justifying another rate cut when it meets in three weeks.

    12/23/25 9:46am - The big jump in Q3 GDP changes the narrative regarding the likelihood for a rate cut next month since a resurgence of inflation may now be viewed as a bigger threat to the economy than rising unemployment.

    12/18/25 9:05am - Today's CPI data for November greatly increase the odds of a rate cut by the Fed in January. Also, this report bolsters the argument for additional rate cuts in 2026, especially after the new Fed chair appointed by the White House takes over in June.

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