Raising the Target on Criteo

 

Although you wouldn’t know it from its stock action, Criteo continues to knock the cover off the ball. A squeamish stock market sent the shares down almost 6% on a fabulous earnings report. I am pounding the table on this stock and raising my price target from $59 to $64 based on higher estimates for 2016 and 2017.

The company continues to benefit from the skyrocketing trends of e-commerce and mobile device transactions. Fears that ad-blocking software would depress revenue growth have proven totally off-base with revenue growth accelerating to 37% in the most recent quarter, up from 31% and 30% in the two previous quarters.

Earnings for the first quarter grew 34%. Although there are still three quarters to play out until year end, estimates for annual earnings growth of only 24% look low. It is rare to find a company growing revenue and earnings 25% to 30% trading with a PE in the high teens. Criteo’s earnings should grow 28% to 30% yet the stock trades at 18 times 2017 numbers.

Concerns that the mid-point for second quarter revenue guidance is $1 million less than current estimates of $161 million seem completely misplaced. Criteo has routinely outperformed guidance. Case in point is the just reported quarter where revenue came in at $162 million versus guidance of $153 million to $158 million.

Revenue from Criteo’s Universal Match software, which pairs consumer activity from laptops and computers to ads delivered on mobile devices, is exploding. Revenue from this product made up 40% of revenue in the first quarter up from 25% in the previous quarter.

All of Criteo’s metrics are moving in the right direction. Unlike most fast growing tech stocks, Criteo earns serious profits and trades at a dirt cheap valuation.


Target: $64

Stock Talk

Phil

Phil

Linda, I read your July issue about Criteo…

“We initiated a buy on Criteo on March 8 and have already raised our price
target three times due to increasing estimates. We currently have a $70 target
on Criteo, up from $64 one month ago and $59 when we first brought it into
Profit Catalyst Alert’s portfolio.”

However, I looked at the chart and the stock has been trading between $35 to $50 since March to now. So, I can’t get it right about your $64 and $59 up from a month ago. It’s CRTO ticker symbol, right? I hope I didn’t look at the wrong chart.

Thanks.

Phil

Phil

Oh Linda, I think you meant the target price raised from $59, and $64. I misread it as trading price. If so, sorry for my ignorant confusion. Thanks.

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Yes Phil you are correct. The stock has not yet hit either target but as the earnings estimates increased I increased the target. Please ask any questions you have. Love the interest!
Linda

Melody Pfingsten

Melody Pfingsten

Do you no longer answer these, Linda? I posted a question a couple of weeks ago but no reply so what is the purpose of the comment section?
Thanks,
Melody

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Melody,
I apologize. I have been traveling this week and had some difficulties logging on to the site but happily that is all now fixed! I do try to respond to each and every question- I will look back and try to find your previous question and do apologize for not getting to it right away. I enjoy corresponding with all of you and love your interest in the stocks. Thanks for being a subscriber.
Best,
Linda

Dr. C

Dr. C

I’m getting killed here.

I bought at-the-money Oct. calls at the beginning of Aug. and I’ve watched the underlying go down 6 bucks.

What is your near-term outlook on this one???

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Dr. C,
CRTO reported a very strong quarter earlier this month. Earnings beat estimates by $.05 and increased over 100%. The stock traded off because the lower end of revenue guidance for the third quarter was just below estimates. I note that management has always been conservative and has almost always beaten the high end of its own guidance. It is always frustrating to get the news you are looking for but not the stock action. I do expect the stock to move up and begin to reflect its strong earnings profile.
Best,
Linda

Richard Gillman

Richard Gillman

please comment on today’s CRTO earnings

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Richard,
Criteo does not report earnings until mid-February. I know the stock is weak today and am looking into reasons for that. I’ll let you know what I find out.
Best,
Linda

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