Discount Food Gets Ugly- Buy Puts on Walmart, Dollar General and Big Lots
The Trades:
Buy to open the June 15, 2018 put on Walmart (NYSE: WMT) with a strike price of $85 at $3.00 or lower. Symbol (WMT180615P85)
Buy to open the August 17, 2018 put on Dollar General (NYSE: DG) with a strike price of $95 at $5.30 or lower. Symbol (DG180817P95)
Buy to open the July 20, 2018 put on Big Lots (NYSE: BIG) with a strike price of $42.50 at $3.00 or lower. Symbol (BIG180720P42.5)
I suggest a $.05-.10 range on my suggested prices. Each company has an earnings event before the end of May.
The Rationale:
Each of these retailers relies on the financial stability of lower-income consumers to help grow sales. Any reduction in the government’s SNAP program (supplemental nutrition assistance program, sometimes known as food stamps) takes a bite out of revenue.
SNAP funding, which is part of the agriculture bill, will likely suffer further cuts as the President looks for ways to shift funding dollars directly to the farmers. Even the addition of work requirements to SNAP recipients will result in an overall reduction in funding for this population.
Each one of these companies has noted prior cuts in SNAP as a reason for weak sales. Starting five years ago Big Lots and Dollar General added coolers to their stores as a way to bring SNAP customers into their stores. (A retailer must offer certain refrigerated food staples to qualify for SNAP acceptance). Walmart has catered to this population for many years and offers full grocery shopping.
Not only does a reduction in food sales hurt these retailers but the higher margin products sold via this foot traffic and less disposable income available reduces the sales of other products.
Amazon recently introduced a discounted Prime membership for customers on government assistance, adding another competitor to a shrinking field.
Each one of these companies has already seen pressure on profit margins due to heightened competition for consumer dollars.
The Dates:
May 10: Big Lots reports first-quarter earnings
May 17: Walmart reports first-quarter earnings
May 31: Dollar General reports first-quarter earnings
Stock Talk
Asjad Shamim
BIG – Buy to open PUT @ strike price of $42.50 executed at $3.00 via Fidelity
WMT – Still working on it
DG – Not planning to participate this time
Is there a guidance on when would be the last day to execute the above alerts? Is it by this Friday?
Linda McDonough
Asjad,
There is no fixed date as to when to get the trades done by. Earnings will start rolling mid-May so I would say by the end of April as a target. Of course, market gyrations between now and then will make me a hero or a fool!
Best,
Linda
Asjad Shamim
Hi Linda,
It helps to have date in mind to get into trades 🙂 Appreciate prompt reply.
First time trading with PCA so just asking to get some understanding.
Thanks.
Linda McDonough
Keep the questions coming! I love having engaged subs.
Best,
Linda
Steve S.
Hi Linda,
Quick question from a guy who literally just hit the “Yes” button to subscribe to your service. Is there a “valid through” date associated with your recommended trades (like Jim issues with OFI)? Or do you issue an Alert terminating the recommendation at some point? I have not yet read all the website info about PCA, so my apologies if the answer lies there.
Thank you,
Steve Shoop
Linda McDonough
Hi Steve,
Welcome aboard and thanks for the question.
I do not offer a valid through kind of date on each trade. However, most of my option trade suggestions are tied to an event. On the original recommendation, I refer to the May earnings dates for these three companies. Also, two of these (DG and WMT) are trading below my buy limit price so they are at good entry points. I hope that is helpful.
Best,
Linda
Steve S.
Most helpful, and thanks also for your speedy reply, Linda.
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
Howard
WMT filled @ $2.95
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
Frank S.
DG filled @ $5.1
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
JoeJB
WMT filled @ $3.00
DG filled @ $5.10
BIG filled @ $2.99
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
Toro
DG filled 5.10
WMT filled 2.91
BIG filled 2.89
Fidelity
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
Maria R
BIG filled 2.85
WMT @ 2.77
Thanks
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
Curtis
Hello, joined the party late. Was only able to get DG at $5.10 so far. Thanks, Curt
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
Howard
DG filled at $4.90
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
MODERATOR: Lisa G
WMT filled at $2.80. The others are simmering. I set the strikes a little lower due to the volatility in this market thinking I might catch a better price over time. I will see how that works on the other two.
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
Jeffrey J
WMT filled at $2.80, at TradeStation.
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
MODERATOR: Lisa G
2 out of 3. BIG filled at $2.85.
Asjad Shamim
New to PCA so i put order yesterday with recommended prices and all of them eventually got filled.
Good call that you waited a bit 🙂 Part of the learning. Hoping these stocks will move up soon.
MODERATOR: Lisa G
These are puts so we will want the stock price to go down, not up. Sometimes I won’t get fills by lowering the strikes but with the current volatility in the market patience can pay off.
Asjad Shamim
What i means is the limit price to go up. Perhaps i am lost then lol
Below is my understanding using WMT as an example.
–> Buy to open the June 15, 2018 put on Walmart (NYSE: WMT) with a strike price of $85 at $3.00 or lower. Symbol (WMT180615P85)
So to make 100% profit on WMT PUT, wouldn`t you want the limit price to go to $6.00 if you bought at $3.00?
Am i totally off here? Please educate me if i am mistaken 🙂
MODERATOR: Lisa G
You are lost, yes. 🙂
First, from the buying side. When buying a put or a call, one would want to spend as little as possible. So how does that happen? It happens if the stock price goes up for a put and down for a call. So if WMT were to go UP over the next few days, say to $90 as an example, the cost of the put would go down.
But once you own the put, you do not want the stock to continue to go up because we bought a put. With puts and calls, the upside potential is theoretically unlimited. The downside is that your loss is 100% of what you paid. If you bought WMT at 3 and sell at 6 then yes you have a 100% return, but it can also go higher or Linda would issue a sell alert at a probably lower number. But the “limit price” is just something you set up when establishing trade instructions. What you really want to pay attention to is the stock price and the time value remaining on the option contract.
You should go and read some basic stuff on puts and calls. Your broker should have information, or Investopedia, or just Google it. It is not a good idea to trade without some basic understanding of things.
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
Linda McDonough
Hi Asjad,
Options can be confusing as they are not totally intuitive. However, once you wrap your mind around them, they will make much more sense. I suggest you read the Investing Daily Guide to Options, link below, or can be found in the FAQ section above.
While I do offer detailed instructions, options are very volatile and risky and you do want to understand the underlying risks and know what movement you are rooting for in a stock.
Best,
Linda
(https://investingdaily.com/res/downloadablePremiums/IDIntrotoOptions.pdf)
Asjad Shamim
Hi Linda,
That document helped alot 🙂
Thank you.
Linda McDonough
Happy to help. And please post any other questions you have.
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
MODERATOR: Lisa G
DG filled at $4.70.
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
Rick
WMT filled at $2.99
DG filled at $4.65
Both yesterday and on Fidelity.
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
Howard
BIG filled at $2.70
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
Asjad Shamim
Funny 🙂
Tried to lower down the average price for WMT and DG and today it went down further.
Currently my positions are:
WMT: $2.68 (2 contracts)
DG: $3.97 (3 contracts)
BIG: $3.06 (1 contract)
This is my first time participating in PCA so was not sure if avg down is recommended here or not.
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
Steve S.
WMT filled @ $2.45, DG @ $4.60, on Schwab just after market open .
Thanks Linda.
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
Abhi A
Bought WMT for 2.10 and sold for 3.10 today. Nice profit there. Will try to get in on them again.
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
Phil Ash
BIG is moving in the right direction. I’m up 41% so far…may unload a few contracts now. Linda, I assume you’re expecting more carnage in the next two days.
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
Abhi A
Linda. Walmart seems to be on a recovery trajectory today. Do you still e pact the stock to take a dip when earnings come out next week?
Linda McDonough
Abhi,
I do think WMT will react poorly when it announces earnings. If you recall, last quarter it fell hard due to higher e-commerce expenses. Those costs are not going down anytime soon and the Flipkart deal will only add to that pile. If investor sentiment changes, the stock could rise but that is very hard to predict.
Best,
Linda
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
Abhi A
Hi Linda, interested in your analysis of WMT earnings. Your primary reasoning for puts was that it’s grocery business may be hit hard due to changes in the snap program which may affect bottom line if I interpreted correctly. However, WMT earnings came in strong and the grocery business did quite well. I am also seeing bullish trends on DG stock. What’s your take?
Linda McDonough
Hi Abhi,
See my comments in the weekly update today (just posted). I wasn’t overly impressed with the WMT numbers, especially in the U.S. but agree it wasn’t a disaster. I don’t understand why DG is so strong, numbers for them come out May 31.
Best,
Linda
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk
Add New Comments
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk