Harsco Sees Strong Demand, Abbvie Goes Dutch and more…

As the market continues to churn, I am doing my best to find trading ideas that will deliver attractive returns. Traditional stock recommendations allow for an extended holding period and are more forgiving. Options trade suggestions are less forgiving when the market trend is not clear due to their expirations.

Many money managers that I talk with are frustrated with the churn in the market. Outside of the averages moving a lot but never making any progress is the frustration that no industry group is leading the way.

This uncertainty means that I’ll be looking at further out expirations for new options recommendations and working even harder to discover stocks with actionable events.

There is much to do so I am keeping this week’s update short on market commentary and long on company-specific details.

On deck for earnings this week:

May 7: After the close: Air Transport Services (NSDQ: ATSG), Carbonite (NSDQ: CARB)

May 8: Before the open: ANI Pharma (NSDQ: ANIP)

May 8: After the close: Ichor Systems (NSDQ: ICHR), Jazz Pharmaceuticals (NSDQ: JAZZ)

May 10: Before the open: Smart Sand (NSDQ: SND)

Around the Portfolio:

Abbvie (NYSE: ABBV) announced a Dutch tender offer coincident with my recommendation last week. This offer is a way for a company to execute a planned stock repurchase or buyback. Instead of repurchasing the shares on the public market, a company provides a price and time range for the repurchase.

The benefit is that the repurchase typically is completed in a shorter period within management’s preferred price range. Abbvie is offering to purchase $7.5 billion worth of stock or 70 million shares at the midpoint of its $99-$114 offer range. The buyback would reduce Abbvie’s outstanding shares by 4%, a significant cut which would boost earnings per share.

Interesting enough, Abbvie’s $106.50 average price is just above the $105 strike that I suggested on the June calls. If the deal receives good supply at the upper end, the calls should jump in price.

The company presents at an industry conference this Wednesday where I expect it will provide more color on the strength of its Hep C drug franchise.

Carbonite, who reports earnings this week, showcased new data protection products at the Dell Technologies World conference. Carbonite purchased Mozy, an online backup service from Dell in March and this showcase is a chance for Carbonite to elaborate on its roadmap as it integrates the Mozy service into its portfolio.

Celgene (NSDQ: CELG) continues to be a thorn in my side. The company reported a quarter, that by all accounts, was quite strong. Total revenue, and revenue from its lead cancer drug, Revlimid, beat expectations. The filing date to resubmit data on its multiple sclerosis drug, Ozanimod, will be in the first quarter of 2019, as opposed to a 2020 date that was floated by a bearish Morgan Stanley analyst last week. Earnings were also better and guidance for the year is now $8.95 versus prior estimates of $8.70- $8.90.

The stock rallied Friday, but closed off the high and is down today.

I often talk about reading the tea leaves. The tea leaves are screaming that the street doesn’t want to own pharma. This stock is cheap but that fact is irrelevant in this market. Perhaps investors are worried about the President’s drug pricing speech scheduled for this Tuesday (although that date may change). It’s anyone’s guess what his tack will be.

I am keeping a tight leash on Celgene with my $83 stop loss. We have news coming this week on Abbvie, but I will be closely watching that stock to perhaps exit if the stock does not respond well to good news.

Harsco (NYSE: HSC) reported a robust quarter and increased earnings guidance for the balance of the year.  Earnings were $.22, $.03 better than expected and double last year’s level. Part of this massive jump is due to a change in accounting, but even without that change, profits rose 75%.

Interestingly CEO Grasberger noted that increased demand is not reliant on the administrations’ trade policies. Specifically, he noted,

“First, the core services business of M&M is pursuing new relationships at a pace not seen in the past. We are adding commercial resources to these efforts and expanding our investments in innovation, mostly around solving customers’ environmental challenges and improving productivity.”

Jazz Pharma filed with the FDA for a revised label for Xyrem® oral solution, CIII, to include an indication to treat cataplexy and EDS in pediatric narcolepsy patients.

The stock was named Alpha Generator Pick at B. Riley where analyst David Buck has a $206 price target on the stock and views the company’s product growth as attractive.

Old Dominion Freight (NSDQ: ODFL) saw its price target raised from $136 to $145 by Cowen. The analyst noted that one of the most favorable environments had driven results in three years. The tug of war on these stocks rests on the worry that these are peak earnings. I disagree and think they offer good upside to investors.

SAIA (NSDQ: SAIA) was upgraded to Buy by an analyst at Stifel. Although analyst David Ross lowered his price target for the shares to $78 from $83 he noted that the less than load market remains strong, and Saia appears to be executing well. I don’t have access to the note but find the lowering of the target odd based on his commentary that current estimates are too low. It sounds like he is making a call on industry valuations, and his concerns are not as stock specific as the headline reads.

Systemax (NYSE: SYX) declared a cash dividend of $0.11 per share. The dividend is one penny higher than the $.10 dividend that the company has been paying for the past three quarters and is a good sign of its healthy cash flow.  

Stock Talk

Asjad Shamim

Asjad Shamim

Hi Linda,
Thank you for the update 🙂

Curious to see whats your recommendation on DG PUT order?

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Asjad,

Unless there is a significant drop in the stock before then, my original plan for these puts (and the WMT and BIG ones) is to lever off the news from earnings from the discount retailers. Walmart reports first on May 17 followed by BIG on May 25 and DG on May 31.

If I issue a sell, you will see an alert.

Best,
Linda

Bruce Demko

Bruce Demko

Linda
In regard to the Dutch offer, is it correct that you believe those of us who currently hold the stock in Abbvie should not accept the offer?

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Bruce,
I suggested the June 105 calls on Abbvie so I do expect the stock to move higher over the next month.
Best,
Linda

Freddie

Freddie

Hi linda what are your thoughts on SND?

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Freddie,
ARGH. I am so frustrated with the action in SmartSand (SND). Part of the problem is that company’s financials are very complicated. Revenue has many different components. It’s not as simple as volume and price, which were actually quite good. There are transportation fees and also some contracts at fixed prices. The culprit this quarter was fewer shipments with high transportation fees and higher expenses as the company expands. I still like the fundamentals and think these are growing pains as the company grabs more share. That said, I fear I may have to put a stop loss on the stock soon. I’m working through some of the new estimates to make a final decision.
Best,
Linda

Freddie

Freddie

Thanks for the qiuck reply- i originally bought snd when it was recomended over a year ago and after it bottomed out i added to my position. I was near breakeven before earnings. I just hope we can get out alright. On a better note though, thank you for all of the other successful trade that you provide us with?

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