Options Deliver on Abbvie and Walmart, Carbonite Rockets and more…

Like many of you, I happily noted the market’s quiet move upward last week. As we exit earnings season, I will use that breathing room to find you some new trade suggestions.

I begrudgingly sold Celgene (NSDQ: CELG) when the stock closed below my stop-loss limit two days in a row. And just like the problem child that suddenly becomes a responsible adult, the stock immediately headed higher.

Sometimes it feels like a personal battle with a stock and Celgene feels like one of those examples. As I noted in my alert, this is not a flashing signal that the stock will continue to fall. Instead, it is an admission that the stock has not behaved as I would have expected based on the fundamentals and I feel my efforts are better spent finding ideas that will hopefully generate profits for you sooner than later.

In the past week, I suggested selling two of our options positions. I suggested selling the Walmart (NYSE: WMT) puts when the stock dropped on news of its $16 billion investment in Flipkart. Below I detail my thoughts on this purchase.

Just today I suggested selling the Abbvie (NYSE: ABBV) calls as the stock rose above our strike price. Positive commentary from management at a recent investor conference and the lack of any bite to President Trump’s speech on drug pricing helped to buoy the stock.

This scenario is precisely how the Profit Catalyst Alert system works when the stars are aligned. I find both bullish and bearish trade scenarios for you that are often linked to a specific event. When we have a targeted event, that helps to time the expiration date that I suggest.

With Walmart, the targeted event is earnings, which will happen this week. But I got lucky with the drop due to its expensive acquisition announcement and thought it prudent to book the gain in the calls.

Abbvie worked just as I expected with the stock moving higher on bullish commentary.

I expect that Big Lots (NYSE: BIG) and Dollar General (NYSE: DG) will trade lower with Walmart’s earnings this Thursday. Big Lots announces earnings on May 25 and Dollar General is expected to announce on May 25. Also, more press regarding the President’s refusal to sign a farm bill without stricter work requirements for food stamp recipients should pressure the stocks.

I haven’t sold the Omnicom (NYSE: OMC) puts despite the earnings event passing. I am analyzing whether there might be more news to weigh on the stock but may have to recommend selling these at a loss.

As always, there is a bundle of news to review.

Around the Portfolio:

ANI Pharma (NSDQ: ANIP) reported earnings of $1.32 per share, $.04 higher than expected but missed revenue estimates slightly. Guidance for annual numbers is at the upper end of earnings and revenue estimates.

Although the company is moving forward with its commercialization plan for Corticotropin, there is a slight delay in its timeline for producing demo batches of the drug while it awaits correspondence from the FDA. This delay is frustrating but does not change my bullish stance on the stock.


As a reminder, Corticotropin is a generic drug that currently generates $1.25 billion in sales and is sold by just one company. Taking only a portion of that market will dramatically increase ANI Pharma’s $220 million base of revenue.


Air Transport Services Group (NSDQ: ATSG) reported earnings and revenue that beat expectations. While the stock bounced a bit, it remains kind of a dud. I am not sure if it the new accounting standard, which lowers reported revenue going forward, but the stock fails to attract a lot of buyers.

This new accounting standard requires companies to net out any revenue whose cost is controlled by a particular customer. For example, ATSG used to report a fuel charge in its gross revenue line and then the contracted fuel expense would be subtracted with the rest of expenses.

The new rule requires the income statement to exclude both the revenue and the expense part of that equation. This adjustment leaves revenue lower but has ZERO impact on earnings.

The company continues to move forward retrofitting planes for cargo delivery, and demand remains strong. I’m revisiting the numbers to make sure I’m not missing anything but still like the fundamentals of this name.

Carbonite (NSDQ: CARB) has been our resident rock star. It beat earnings by $.05 and guided to a higher than expected number for the year.

Analysts were most interested in discussing the company’s plans to “move upmarket” to small enterprise and business customers. With its March purchase of Mozy, Carbonite gained informal access to Dell’s network of resellers.

Analysts at Craig Hallum and Lake Street Capital raised their targets on the stock to $34 and 40 respectively. I am reviewing our $37 target.

 Shares of Old Dominion Freight Line (NSDQ: ODFL) moved higher after merger speculation made the rounds that Amazon (NSDQ: AMZN) may be interested in acquiring the shipper.

Smart Sand (NSDQ: SND) reported strong revenue but higher than expected expenses, which weighed on earnings. Management is still extraordinarily bullish and is making investments to satisfy booming demand.

I am so frustrated with the action in the stock. Part of the problem is that company’s financials are very complicated. Revenue has many different components. It’s not as simple as volume and price, which were actually quite good. There are transportation fees and also some contracts at fixed rates. The culprit this quarter was fewer shipments with high transportation fees and higher expenses as the company expands.

I still like the fundamentals and think these higher expenses are growing pains necessary as the company grabs more share. That said, I fear I may have to put a stop loss on the stock soon. I’m working on some of the new estimates to make a final decision.

Walmart acquired a 77% stake in Indian retailer Flipkart for $16 billion. This deal is a massive one for even a giant like Walmart. If you recall, its headline purchase of U.S. e-commerce player Jet, amounted to just $3 billion, so this deal is five times higher in price.

Although investors may get more excited about the possible return if Walmart spins off Flipkart as an IPO within four years (as is laid out in some of the SEC filings), the company will absorb $.30 of losses this fiscal year and $.60 next year from Flipkart.

One secondary repercussion from the deal is that instead of focusing on weaker demand from food stamp recipients or the general health of its grocery business during its earnings call this week, investors may be more interested in focusing on this deal. Luckily we still have the company specific earnings for Big Lots and Dollar General to influence those stocks.

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