Titanium-Strength Earnings

Considering all of the bad news we have been subjected to lately – slow global growth, a weak European economy and plenty of geopolitical risk – it would be easy to take a rather dim view of the markets. Considering the Dow Jones is back to about where it started the year, after what seemed like months of making almost daily new highs, someone might even accuse you of not paying attention if you aren’t dispirited. Needless to say, it’s nice to get good news and, every now and then, there is some.

The latest good news came from Carpenter Technology Corporation (NYSE: CRS), which makes an array of specialty metals and alloys used in wide variety of industries, ranging from drill heads for the energy business and jet engines to high-end consumer electronics and artificial knees and shoulders. If the application requires metals that can withstand high temperatures and stresses or resist corrosion, there’s a good chance Carpenter made it.

Unfortunately for Carpenter, though, the industries it serves tend to be very cyclical. Aside from metals for medical applications, oil and gas drilling tends to slow when energy prices drop and aircraft orders crash along with the economy. While the company has had some production problems at two of its facilities recently, its share price is off by more than 20% so far this year as the consensus economic view has become more pessimistic.

While it’s true the first quarter had its challenges – production issues at its two facilities in Pennsylvania, negative free cash flow as the company develops a new plant in Georgia and a less profitable mix of product sales – when the company reported its results for the first quarter of its fiscal 2015 earlier this week, it looked like the pessimism might be a bit overdone.

Net sales for the quarter, while down sharply on a sequential basis, were up 7% compared to the year-ago period to $549.8 million while shipments were up 11%. Sales blew analyst expectations out of the water, as the consensus expected revenue of just $477.5 million. Carpenter also turned in a solid beat on the earnings front, coming in at $0.25 versus the expectation of $0.20.

While sales were down in each of the end markets the company serves on a quarter-over-quarter basis, with aerospace and defense (A&D) down a big 15%, year-over-year every sector was up except for A&D. When you take a longer view, sales to the transportation end market were up 20% thanks to higher automotive production, while sales to the energy and the industrial and consumer sectors were up 15%. Energy gains were obviously driven by booming production here in the US, while demand for high-end electronics and premium steel for tools were the drivers in the latter sector. The year-over-year decline in the A&D sector also wasn’t nearly as bad, down just 1%.

Considering how far Carpenter has fallen, this looks like an excellent entry point for those who would like to pick up some shares. For one thing, the operational issues in Pennsylvania look to be behind it as production in the two facilities has resumed. Production at its new Athens plant is also ramping up, with 1,000 tons of salable product produced in the facility in the last quarter. In its second quarter, Carpenter expects production there to reach at least 2,000 tons, especially since it recently closed a 5-year deal with Rolls Royce to supply it with super-alloys to be used in the production of jet engines. The contract is worth about $100 million over its life.

The company also recently began production at a new finishing facility located near Shanghai, China. While the Chinese economy has been slowing, sales of automobiles, high-end electronics and other goods requiring specialized metals remain strong. The new facility will allow Carpenter to be more responsive to the needs of its Chinese customers, while at the same time lowering transport and production costs in the Asian market.

Largely thanks to the additional capacity created with the two new facilities and the new opportunities they have created, the company’s backlog is up 14% just compared to the prior quarter.

Carpenter has also paid a steady $0.18 quarter dividend for the past six years, with its shares now yielding 1.5% after this year’s sell-off. The company’s also just approved a new share repurchase program valued at up to $500 million over the next two years, provided further support to per-share earnings. So while Carpenter’s share price may be volatile in the coming months depending upon the economic news, even in today’s somewhat weak environment analyst still expect earnings to grow by at least 6.5% over its full fiscal year.

One of just a handful of companies capable of producing highly specialized metals, it’s a great value up to $57.