Canada’s Trade Numbers Show Pockets of Emerging Growth

Although crude’s collapse has continued to dampen Canadian trade, there are new signs that a lower exchange rate is boosting other sectors of the economy.

According to Statistics Canada (StatCan), the country’s trade deficit widened in December, to USD562.2 million, nearly double the revised November deficit of USD295.6 million.

But it could have been a lot worse. The latest number actually beat the consensus forecast by a wide margin. According to a survey by Bloomberg, economists had expected the trade deficit to balloon to USD953 million in November.

Also important, November’s preliminary number for the trade deficit came in at USD568.3 million, so the aforementioned revision for that month nearly halved what was initially reported.

Still, there’s no question that with energy products accounting for about a quarter of Canada’s total exports by value crude’s bear market has had a deleterious effect on the country’s trade balance. While export volumes actually increased by 3.5% from November, prices declined by 1.9%.

That was enough for the total value of Canada’s exports to stage a modest 1.5% rebound from the prior month, to USD38.2 billion. But the drop in crude prices coupled with the lower exchange rate have caused the value of Canada’s total exports to fall by 10.1% from their recent high in July, which had been a record high when expressed in Canadian dollar terms.

StatCan reports that in December energy exports declined by 10.3%, to USD7.5 billion, the seventh consecutive monthly decrease. While exports of crude oil and natural gas fell by 12.0% and 19.7%, respectively, refined petroleum products jumped 13.7%. Prices for the overall energy sector declined 12.3%, while volumes were up 2.3%.

Though the energy sector is clearly taking a beating, the good news is that there were gains in eight other sectors, particularly in mining.

Exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products increased 13.1%, to USD4.9 billion, a record high when expressed in Canadian dollar terms. A 10.4% rise in volumes drove the gain, while prices climbed 2.4%. The primary factor in this performance was a 28.2% month-over-month jump in exports of unwrought precious metals and precious metal alloys.

So it looks like there’s still a bit of oomph left in at least one pocket of Canada’s resource sector, even if energy is flagging. Indeed, the total value of exports for Canada’s metal and non-metallic mineral products category was up a staggering 31.8% year over year, by far the strongest performance among all the exporting industries.

Outside of the resource area, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has been keen on reviving the country’s beleaguered manufacturing sector, and it believes a lower exchange rate is the key to unlocking growth.

On that front, there was promising news. Exports of Consumer goods rose 5.2%, to USD4.5billion, on higher volumes. In Canadian dollar terms, the total value of exports in this category has climbed 17.7% year over year, the third-strongest performance over that period among Canada’s exporting industries.

On the import side, one of the areas we’ve been monitoring as a gauge of future economic growth is machinery and equipment. While the lower exchange rate helps exporters, some economists are worried that it could offset some of those gains by making the import of machinery and equipment more expensive in Canadian dollar terms.

The Canadian dollar currently trades just below USD0.80, down 15.2% from its trailing-year high in July.

The value of imports of machinery, equipment and parts declined by 0.4% month over month, though it’s up 9.7% year over year. Over that same period, the U.S. dollar appreciated by 8.6%, so much of the year-over-year growth in the value of imports in this category is likely derived from a higher exchange rate, as more Canadian dollars now purchase fewer U.S. goods.

Though the BoC’s recent rate cut was nominally undertaken as an insurance policy for the broader economy against fallout from the energy sector, it also put further downward pressure on the exchange rate. And that should have a bonus effect for exporters that will become more apparent in the months ahead.