Futures market speculators are a favorite scapegoat for politicians looking to assign blame for rising oil and energy prices. But data released on Friday by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) backs up what I’ve been saying for a long time: Futures market speculation is not the main driver of oil prices over the longer term. Read More

The depressed crude oil prices at the end of 2008 and early 2009 were the real aberration--not the current quote. Those depressed prices reflected unusually weak near-term fundamentals and historic imbalances in the futures curve. Much of the subsequent rally has simply been an unwinding of those imbalances. Read More

Far too many investors ignore the role that improving credit markets have played in the recent rallies in stock and commodities markets. Read More

Consumer and producer behavior from 2004 through mid-2008 is not consistent with artificially high oil prices. The speculation argument has little basis in reality. The real cause of rising prices is unusually strong demand growth coupled with sluggish supply response despite record spending. Read More

I reiterate my outlook for crude oil, in addition to analyzing Iraq's failed auction of oilfield production contracts and the real prospects for alternative energy in the US. Read More

The catalyst for the next upturn in global stock and commodity markets will be a realization that the US has exited the recession and the Chinese economy is reaccelerating again. I am looking for the rally to resume in the final months of the year. Read More

Oil's rally was a major topic in the financial media on Tuesday and Wednesday, and a long list of pundits have attempted to explain the recent rally in crude prices. Many analysts asserted that oil's run-up has little to do with fundamentals of supply and demand, citing murky arguments related to the weaker US dollar and speculative fervor. But fundamementals are still at the heart of oil's recent move. Read More

If history’s any guide, we should see some impressive gains in energy-related stocks over the next 12 to 18 months. The turn in this cycle is predicated on two basic facts: Global demand is stabilizing, and global production declines are accelerating. Read More

As always, one of the most enjoyable and useful aspects of the show from my perspective has been the question and answer (Q&A) sessions that follow each of my presentations and panels. These questions give me a window into what investor sentiment is toward energy and various sub-sectors. Read More

The US economy is still shrinking, and the recession that began in December 2007 continues. Nevertheless, there’s been an important change for the better in recent weeks as the economy is no longer shrinking at as fast a pace. Read More