Powering the Video Craze

Ambarella’s chips are flying high. Literally. These systems-on-a-chip power the sophisticated video drones use, as well as wearable cameras, flying cameras and security cameras.

And now is a great time to buy Ambarella (NSDQ: AMBA). The stock hit a speed bump in mid-2015 because GoPro, one of Ambarella’s largest customers, had a series of missteps and because an earthquake in Japan cut supplies of a key component. Together, they caused revenue to drop 21% the first half of this year. However, GoPro now makes up a tiny portion of revenue, and components from the Sony factory are starting to arrive.

Based on my analysis, the damage GoPro’s order cutting caused is over, and huge gains from Ambarella’s new drone customers will set the stock soaring at least 30% to my $75 target.

Current estimates assume flat earnings for the second half of fiscal 2017 (ends January 2017) and 17% growth the following year. A bounce in demand should allow the company to beat these estimates handily.

Meanwhile, the demand for video is a market tsunami. YouTube estimates that 300 hours of video are uploaded to its site every single minute and 5 billion videos are watched on its website every day.

That helps Ambarella, sure, but relatively simple, bargain-basement chips can power the average camera that produces a YouTube video. Ambarella’s strategic advantage is that it has a full menu of chips from the 4K ultra-high-definition ones used for research, commercial filmmaking and equipment inspection, to the less expensive mass-market chips used in helmet-mounted sports cameras.

So Ambarella is on the verge of exiting a difficult year. Revenue and earnings should take flight as strong demand for drones and flying cameras soars. Our current $75 target assumes a slow rebound in components from Sony. As component shipments and orders to Ambarella pick up, we expect the target to move higher.

Ambarella Markets

Here’s a breakdown of Ambarella’s market segments:

Wearable cameras record everything, from your dog’s perspective when chasing a tennis ball to the free fall of a snowboarder at Tuckerman’s Ravine. This trend of wearable action cameras hit a fever pitch in 2014, when stores couldn’t keep enough in stock and GoPro’s share price soared. Fast forward to mid-2015, when early adopter demand was sated and GoPro failed to attract new customers with slightly tweaked new models.

GoPro accounted for almost one third of Ambarella’s revenue in the year ending January 2015 and 20% for the year ending January 2016. Orders from GoPro began to drop off in October 2015 and are down 66% in the first six months of this fiscal year (ends January 2017). With GoPro accounting for just 10% of revenue, any further deterioration in its business will have little effect on Ambarella’s top line.

Drones are the new frontier of consumer demand for high-definition video capture. Ambarella will benefit this holiday season as retailers such as Best Buy and Target strive to fill their shelves with popular drones made by GoPro competitors, such as Asian producer DJI. In fact, one Wall Street analyst said that DJI’s Mavic Pro drone, powered by an Ambarella chip, is already seeing stronger-than-expected demand before the hard-core shoppers hit the malls.

Feng-Ming Wang, one of Ambarella’s co-founders, expects a surge in demand for drones as prices drop and become affordable for the mass market. A drone with 4K video will sell this holiday season for as little as $300, versus more than $1,000 last year. The company is constantly improving its technology to keep profits high in a market where chip prices drop continually. Ambarella is able to introduce higher-grade technology for its most expensive chips while pushing down prices for mass-market use.

Business may become the biggest drone market. Energy companies like Chevron and British Petroleum use drones and super-high-definition flying cameras to inspect ocean rigs for potential problems. Some of the most hawkeyed drones help identify potential energy deposits at a fraction of the cost of manual exploration. Others inspect microwave towers.

Farmers use drones as mini crop dusters. Architecture and building firms use aerial shots from drones to create more accurate models. Of course, the most famous use of drones is Amazon’s plan for Jetson-like home delivery, in which a drone drops your order by your front door.

Security is another high-growth area. Ambarella’s chips are also used in corporate and consumer security products and for wearable cameras like the ones many police forces use.

p4 ambarella chart

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