Standing Pat on Options; Brunswick Throws a Strike

Acuity (NYSE: AYI) got hit hard last week due to an analyst downgrade. Roth Capital downgraded the stock to a sell based on President Trump’s threat of a 20% tariff  on imports from Mexico. The analyst noted that a large portion of Acuity’s parts would be affected. It is impossible to know if this tariff will be implemented and while Acuity has a short leash due to its soft quarterly report earlier this month, I don’t think it’s wise to sell the stock on speculation regarding future tariff possibilities.

Ambarella (NSDQ: AMBA) may get a boost from some positive developments in the drone world. Key Banc analyst Brad Erickson raised his estimates for Ambarella customer GoPro and noted that holiday demand was not nearly as bad as feared. I’ve noted before that Ambarella’s trading is correlated fairly tightly to GoPro, despite the fact that the company is diversifying its sales with new customers.

Brunswick (NYSE: BC) reported a solid fourth quarter last week. Revenue grew 9%, slightly less than expected, primarily due to the stronger dollar which lowers the value of foreign sales. Earnings however, grew 19% to better profit margins, a lower tax rate and lower shares due to share repurchases. I’m working through my model to see if Brunswick can move much higher. It’s been a fabulous performer for us, up 40% and I’m loathe to let those gains slip away.

Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), a stock for which we hold puts, reported a mixed quarter last week.  Adjusted earnings were 85c versus an estimate of 67c. However, these adjusted numbers were boosted by a much higher than anticipated restructuring charge.

Revenue dropped 13% and was $200 million less than expected. Guidance for 2017 was weak- $2.90 versus current estimates of $3.07 and sales of “less than $38 billion versus expectations of $38.3 billion.

Management pointed out that guidance is dependent on a more dramatic improvement in the second half of the year. This means that current demand levels remain punk and that estimates may come down further if demand does not reignite in the second half of the year.

It also warned that more restructuring charges may be on the horizon above and beyond the $500 million currently expected. As a point of reference, Caterpillar recorded $1 billion in restructuring charges in 2016 and $900 million in 2015. These charges have equaled almost half of all profits in the two-year period.

I suggest holding on to the puts with the expectation that the stock will drift lower.

Masonite (NYSE: DOOR) and Gypsum Management & Supply (NYSE: GMS) received some bullish news from DR Horton, the largest home builder in the U.S. DR Horton reported last week that first quarter sales increased 17%, slightly higher than expected. It noted that January sales were trending strong. Prices crept higher with the average home price increasing 2% from last year. Higher priced homes are typically larger and include more bells and whistles, good news for Masonite’s high end doors and Gypsum’s dry wall product.

Masonite competitor Jeld Wen had a successful IPO last week, increasing 13% from its $23 initial price. When comparing its financials, I like Masonite better. More than 80% of Masonite’s revenue is domestic versus 60% for Jeld Wen. Both are growing revenue high single digits but Masonite has shown greater improvements in its profitability and holds significantly less debt. Jeld Wen is burdened with a debt equal to three times its equity versus Masonite whose debt/equity ratio is less than one.

PayPal (NSDQ: PYPL) a stock for which we hold calls, reported a solid fourth quarter last week. Revenue grew 19% and earnings grew 17% to 42 cents. The stock traded down a bit after hours due to a news report that guidance was weak. In fact, guidance is right on target with Wall Street projections. Management’s outlook for 16% revenue and earnings growth for 2017 is higher than prior guidance and frames Wall Street numbers.

PayPal continues to sow the seeds of locking in consumers with its mobile payment systems. Its Venmo person to person payment app, which is taking the market by storm, processed $5.6 billion in transactions in the fourth quarter along, up 156% from the prior year. The company has not incorporated any earnings from Venmo into its 2017 projections, leaving room for upside to earnings.

I recommend holding the call for the moment but am well aware of the time value that will erode the call’s value as we get closer to the February expiration.

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