Earnings Week for Bearish Options and Many Others

Fasten your seatbelt it’s going to be a busy week. We are right in the heart of earnings season. While all of our positions are dependent on good results, many of our option positions are timed on news coming out of this first quarter cycle.

I will be covering all the news and be filling you in on updates. Most of the updates will be found here, on the weekly update. However, when a stock moves dramatically, as it did with Mueller Water last week (see details below), and if it inspires a buy on the dip or a sell recommendation, I will issue an alert, delivered to you via email and/or text.

Here’s how the week is shaping up:

Monday (after the close): Integrated Device Technology (NSDQ:IDTI) and Chemours Company (NYSE:CC)

Tuesday: Spectrum Brands (NYSE:SPB), Edgewell Personal Care (NYSE:EPC) and Big Five Sporting (NSDQ:BGFV) before the open.  

Wednesday: Air Transport Services (NSDQ:ATSG) and Criteo (NSDQ:CRTO) both before the open.

Thursday: ANI Pharma (NSDQ:ANIP) and Church and Dwight (NYSE:CHD) before the open and Carbonite (NSDQ:CARB) and Imping (NSDQ:PI) after the close.

Option put positions in Spectrum Brands, Edgewell Personal Care and Church and Dwight were placed as a bet that sales this quarter will disappoint. Conference call information for Spectrum and Church and Dwight, including what information to listen for can be found here.

Edgewell will host a conference call on May 2 at 10 AM (EST). A webcast of the call can be accessed via this link. Please be sure to leave a few moments to register your name for the call. You do not have to be an institutional investor to listen to this call.

What to Listen For: Edgewell derives 63% of its revenue from its wet shave products, including Schick razors. The razor category is under massive assault from low priced home delivery razor firms like Dollar Shave. What is Edgewell’s plan to get some of that business back? Look for terms like promotions and “planogram” adjustments, a fancy term for losing shelf space.

In other news around the portfolio:

Ambarella (NSDQ:AMBA) jumped a bit last week when large customer GoPro announced bullish sales results. GoPro’s first quarter revenue grew 19% and second quarter growth is expected to accelerate to 22%. This growth is a huge jump from the 7% decline GoPro suffered in the prior six months.

According to industry source NPD, GoPro’s drone, Karma with HERO5 camera, was the #2 best-selling drone priced over $1,000 in the U.S. in March. Also, global consumer research firm GfK noted that unit and dollar sell-through of Karma drones in Japan was up 140 percent year over year.

Also, Ambarella won a coveted spot in Chinese camera company Yi Technology’s, 360-degree virtual reality camera. The camera, the Yi 360 VR, was announced at the NAB conference (National Association of Broadcasters) in Las Vegas last week.

Edgewell (NYSE:EPC) was touted by Barron’s as a potential take-out. I find its argument flawed in several ways. First, the analyst quoted in the article thinks it could be acquired for a price equal to 17 times its EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization- a fancy term for what usually equals the cash flow of a company).

This multiple is well above the most recent price paid and more than double the 7.7 times median paid. Last week Post Holdings (NYSE:POST) purchased Weetabix for 12 times EBITDA, a price investors complained was too high.

Barron’s also tried to defend the health of Edgewell’s razor business. This is hardly true. For the December quarter, Edgewell reported a 2.1% decline in its organic shaving revenue. On top of this, Proctor and Gamble (NYSE:PG) recently announced that its razor sales were the weakest of the year.

P&G’s CFO, Jon Moeller, said consumers are cutting back purchases, aggressively seeking deals and drawing down supplies at home. At the same time, he said, a growing affinity for beards has played a big part in driving down razor sales, which contributed to a 6% organic sales decline for P&G’s grooming unit.

It’s safe to say I’m still quite bearish on Edgewell and think subscribers could add to the May put positions at this level.

Semiconductor equipment maker Ichor Holdings (NSDQ: ICHR) priced a 5.137 million share secondary offering at $19.50  Of the deal shares, 4.5 million were sold by insiders and the balance by the company. As a reminder, shares sold by the company increase the share count but add the proceeds to its cash balance. Insider sales do not change the share count nor do they generate any proceeds for the company.

At the same time, the company pre-announced a very strong first quarter and gave bullish guidance for the second.

Ichor expects revenue of approximately $148.7 million, more than double last year’s level and expects revenue growth of 65% in the second quarter. Profits will be equally brilliant with the company expecting $.57 of earnings in the first quarter versus $.17 last year.

Smart Sand (NSDQ:SND) took a hit last week. I suspect it was due to cautious commentary from Carbo Ceramics (NYSE:CRR). Although Carbo does compete a bit with Smart Sand, its propellants are a much more expensive type used in very deep drilling. The fracking sand sold by Smart Sand is used at a different depth and does not compete directly with Carbo’s products. Also, I think investors were disappointed by Carbo’s continued cash burn. 

Smart Sand, which is profitable and generating cash, will report results on May 11. I expect the company to deliver good news and recommend buying on the dip.

For those that missed the alert, Mueller Water (NYSE: MWA) reported a tough quarter last week. Sales for more traditional hydrants and valves were up just slightly due to customer hesitation over infrastructure bills. Most of Mueller’s products are purchased by municipalities which rely on federal and state funding for their budgets.

Despite the hiccup, the company’s technology products, which detect leaks and measure the health of water infrastructure, appear to be on track. San Jose just announced the largest deployment to date of Mueller’s Echologic leak detection product. Just today the Wall Street Journal reported that the city of Pittsburgh is looking for $1.5 billion in funding to upgrade its water infrastructure.
Like many infrastructure companies, revenue can be lumpy and unpredictable. I like the conservative management at Mueller and its unique product positioning in this space.

Stock Talk

DR083157

DR083157

What about the Kroger short. Are you still feeling strong on this?

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Yes, I do. Kroger just traded a very large block of stock (11 million shares) at $28.50, below the market, typically illustrative of a big holder looking to get out. The company does not report until June 15 but the July puts will capture the move from that event.

Grocery traffic remains weak, particularly in the center aisle of the store, where profits are highest.
Best,
Linda

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Hello subscribers-

For those of you involved in the Spectrum (SPB) or Edgewell (EPC) puts I have a quick update:

Spectrum reported a very soft quarter. The stock is down about 8% and I’m watching for a good exit point for the $130 puts. The expiration is not until July so we have some time and I expect the stock to trade below our $130 strike price.

Edgewell’s quarter was slightly better than expected but guidance was horrible. I think the stock is up because the shave business was not as bad as Gillette had been broadcasting. That said, it is in decline and future quarters look even worse. The company kept annual guidance only after lowering its tax rate estimate and shares outstanding materially. Sales will be worse than expected and profits worse.

Unfortunately, our puts expire in three weeks. I think the stock will reverse some of its move upwards and am closely watching to see if other investors read through the purposely foggy outlook.

Best,
Linda

Guest User

Guest User

can you provide feedback on the CC and IDTI earning report please?

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Hello-
Yes please see my comments below on CC and IDTI:

CC: The Chemours (NYSE:CC) reported a fabulous quarter. Earnings were $.75, 50% higher than the $.50 expected. Adoption of the company’s Opteon low global warming refrigerant is taking off. The stock sold off a bit after the quarter on fears that revenue was boosted by one large customer stocking up.However, management confirmed that demand is stable and inventory in the channel is not stuffed. The Chemours is trading with a P/E of just 11 on 2018 estimates of $3.58. I’m reviewing my own internal estimates but think this stock is a great buy as fundamentals are even better than I had predicted.

IDTI: Despite Integrated Device’s (NSDQ:IDTI) stock dipping on the results, I think the quarter marked a turning point for the company. It’s cloud business, which makes up 36% of sales, grew 5% sequentially and should see stronger growth in the second half of the year.

The automotive business, which I am most excited about, now makes up 11% of revenue. As this segment continues to make up a bigger part of Integrated’s revenue, its success will pull up overall profits.

I acknowledge the stock has been a difficult one as it worked through softness in some of its older chip lines but I think investors will do well holding onto this name. However, I would put a $20 stop loss on half positions to protect yourself if the stock drifts lower.

Craig Telfer

Craig Telfer

Linda, do you have anything to add for ANIP before earnings announcement on Thursday morning?

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Hi Craig,
I apologize, I thought I had already responded to your question. It’s been a crazy week! ANIP was very week yesterday but I think investors are nervous because last quarter was so messy. I do not have access to script data but the company has launched several new products so I expect earnings to be on track. I’ll post another update as soon as I review the numbers. The conference call is at 10:30 so I”ll try to leave a brief update before that.
Linda

Craig Telfer

Craig Telfer

Linda, well I guess it does not matter on ANIP. Not a good day and no insight

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

ANIP reported a decent quarter, not great but I think better than the bears were hoping. Revenue was $3M light but still up 78% and earnings of $.74 were $.02 light. Guidance for the year straddles current estimates of $3.90. The stock is incredibly cheap. Earnings are growing 27% yet the stock trades with a P/E of 13. This doesn’t even take into consideration upside from the company’s corticotropin product. Call starts at 10:30 am but so far I think it’s a great buy on the dip.

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Two updates for subscribers:
CHD reported a better than expected quarter but stole earnings from the second quarter. Delays in promotions helped boost earnings but will now cut into the second quarter as spending starts. The stock is up due to optimism from management about its laundry products, particularly in club stores. The CHD puts do not expire until July so I’m holding on to them as I expect the stock to revert down.

ANIP reported a quarter slightly less than expected but is bullish going forward due to some new products. Most importantly the company gave much more detail regarding its new corticotropin product which it hopes to present to the FDA by year end. This is earlier than anticipated and the company seems to be moving forward efficiently to gear up to production volumes. I think it’s a great buy on the dip from earlier this week.

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