Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) is On the Shopping List and Ambarella (NSDQ: AMBA) Dives on Drones

With the absence of earnings releases last week, stocks moved pretty much in sync with their industry brethren. This is good news when enthusiastic investors are eagerly scooping up your shares but pretty rough sledding when an industry suffers an across the board selling sweep.

Such was the case for Smart Sand (NSDQ: SND), which fell more than 20% last week. Smart Sand makes a unique grade of fracking sand used in horizontal oil wells. Like most energy stocks, it is tightly correlated to the price of oil. A selling squall hit oil last week due to disappointment over OPEC’s decision to keep oil production cuts flat.

As with most of the stocks I research, the ones that go down require much more work than those that obediently rise. I’ve yet to uncover a fundamental reason that Smart Sand declined so much. ISI Evercore, a boutique investment firm, started coverage of the stock with an “in-line” rating, the equivalent of a neutral. I don’t have access to this research but do know that Smart Sand has much better economics than any of the other fracking companies.

My best guess is that as the youngest stock in the fracking group (most others have been public for 3-10 years, SND went public last fall), Smart Sand has yet to build up a loyal base of investors.

The stock briefly fell below a $10 stop loss that I suggested to some subscribers. I do not like issuing formal stop losses as I’ve often been washed out of a good stock at the lowest possible point. Stop loss suggestions are for investors who have a lower risk tolerance. If the stock hits a stop loss, I suggest selling half. If I find the fundamentals of the stock have changed, I will sell the stock. This is not the case with Smart Sand, a stock whose fundamentals I like very much, despite its poor behavior.

On the flip side, retail stocks, a group I’ve been more bearish than bullish on, started popping up like daisies. Best Buy, Guess, Ulta, Big Lots and Deckers all roared higher on better than expected numbers.

Retail has been in a house of pain for some time, and this change in stock behavior is an important signal to investors. Although some of the buying is likely due to short covering, I’ve been circling some names in the group that look like terrific values.

Just today I published a buy alert for Gap Inc. Interestingly, I’ve looked at Gap as a possible short in the past and always come away impressed by the company’s robust cash flow. Now that sales are beginning to improve for Old Navy and even traditional Gap stores, the stock should move higher.

I’ve got a few other retail names I’m working on so be on alert for more trade ideas.

News around the portfolio:

Ambarella (NSDQ: AMBA) was hit Monday due to a downgrade by Pacific Crest who believes that Ambarella’s largest drone customer may be using a competitor’s chip in its newest low-end drone, the DJI Spark.

DJI is the company’s most significant drone customer. However, chips for drones accounted for just 10% of revenue last year. This customer set is expected to grow rapidly. DJI is one of the largest, most diverse drone manufacturers in the world and it is not unusual for it to have multiple suppliers for its chips. Buy the dip on Ambarella.

The Chemours Company (NYSE: CC) completed an offering of $500,000,000 in senior notes with a 5.375% interest rate. The debt is due 2027. Mark Newman, Senior Vice President and CFO of Chemours stated, “As previously announced, we intend to use the net proceeds of the offering for general corporate purposes, including our portion of the global settlement of the multi-district PFOA litigation between DuPont and the plaintiffs, if finalized. This offering allows Chemours to enhance its financial flexibility as we continue to strengthen our company.”

Put position Kroger (NYSE: KR): Loop Capital Markets analyst reiterated a Hold rating on Kroger Co with a price target of $32. The analyst sees annual earnings of just under $122 million and an EPS of $2.22 for fiscal 2017. The analyst believes Wal-Mart Stores Inc “has the most meaningful competitive effect on the supermarket industry,” and elaborated in a note on how its gains will lower that of competitors. “Wal-Mart is taking share back from grocers at an accelerating rate,” said the analyst.

Impinj (NSDQ: PI) jumped 10% last week, likely due to Amazon’s shareholder meeting. Although details of the meeting are not publically available, it is quite likely the company’s checkout-less grocery store was discussed. Impinj is rumored to be working with Amazon on the tag technology for this store, but it has not been confirmed as a partner.

Also, the stock jumped due to speculation that it would collaborate with Kaiser, a health care provider. Barrons magazine notes that Impinj sent an email to investors last week inviting them to a conference call on July 19 to discuss the use of its technology in healthcare. I am working on getting the details of this call and will happily share with you when they are in my hands.

Stock Talk

Guest User

Guest User

How low do expect CC to go?

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Hello,

I don’t expect CC to go much lower. I think the stock is down today on news that Trump is leaning towards exiting the Paris Climate agreement. While philosophically this is bad news for the Chemours, the regulation needed to force adoption of its green coolants is already in place. I think it’s a great buy down here.

Best,
Linda

Rick

Rick

I jumped on the GPS July 24 Calls today for $0.34 – a day late was an advantage this time.

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Well done! It’s never easy to pick a stock at the exact bottom. Many retail stocks are acting well in a soft market so I expect GPS to follow suit.
Best,
Linda

Fo

Fo

Linda, do we still think that Gap (GPS) has “juice” for July?

It was up today–a down day.

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Fo-
It’s hard to say. I certainly hope so. Retail, in general, has been a stronger group recently. I’d like to see a bit more pop to the stock. We don’t really need a huge price move to get these calls in the money and get them jumping.
Best,
Linda

Fo

Fo

My path through this trade leaves my current status as 23 strike July calls paid up (in fact with a few dimes per share of profits locked in). I’ll be deciding next whether to stand pat, roll out or sell the calls to exit the trade with a small increment to my small current profit.

I also own 17 strike July puts (currently worthless) which would only come into play should GPS crater in the near term. I hope that doesn’t happen; I hope this trade works out for everyone.

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