VF Corp. Surges on Strong Sneaker Revenue- Sit Tight on Puts

We will not have any luck with the VF Corp (NYSE: VFC) puts today. The drop in the put price is the brutal face of option volatility where prices can increase or decrease geometrically overnight.

The puts were down almost 90% going into the quarter and are now trading for very little. There are still two and a half months until they expire. With them trading so low, the best option is to hold on to them with the chance that investors become a bit more critical on the quarter.

The stock is up strongly on third-quarter earnings. While I can poke some holes in the performance (significant jump in advertising and marketing expense and a decline in wholesale revenue), investors are focusing on the strength of Van’s sneaker brand.

I also think the exuberance over fourth quarter “bullishness” is misplaced. From my count, the company beat third-quarter estimates by $.11 but increased annual guidance by only $.05. The arithmetic here is that fourth quarter estimates should be lowered by $.06.

The action in the stock is clear that investors are most interested in strong revenue growth, which VFC delivered via Vans and stronger European sales.

This is the painful side of bearish bets. Despite being correct on weak wholesale and North Face revenue, the company has found one strong nugget of growth upon which investors are focusing.

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