Why Carbonite Jumped and Vulcan Sagged and more…

The market continues to suffer from an identity crisis. Bull? Bear? Turtle? It’s a muddling period that makes investors jittery and some retreating to their shells.

Although I’ve been encouraged by the breadth and share volume of rising stocks, the sharp drops reserved for any disappointing news show me the bear’s claws have not been dulled.

As a reminder, I am always looking for stocks that are undergoing a secular shift. This is a trend that will specifically help or hurt (in my bearish bets) this stock or a group of stocks.

For example, Carbonite (NSDQ: CARB), which I discuss below, is a benefactor of the shift of data to online storage. The company is also succeeding in shifting its customer base to more profitable corporate customers from consumers.

Ichor Systems (NSDQ: ICHR), is another secular play focusing on the demand for the semiconductor production equipment needed to make the next generation of chips. New chips required for OLED screens drive demand for new wafer fab equipment, for which Ichor produces components.

The idea is that stocks with robust drivers that are not dependent on a bull market should move higher regardless of the market direction. Obviously, in huge swoops down like we saw earlier this month, there are few spots to hide. But over time stocks with solid growth based on a unique circumstance should perform well.

I suggested selling the Emergent BioSolutions (NYSE:EBS) call option on Friday for a 39% gain. The group has had a hard time staying up and as many of you know, I like to book any notable options gain when it arrives.

In case you missed it, I also issued a bullish trade alert for Target (NYSE: TGT) (long the stock and long calls) and a bearish one on Big Lots (NYSE: BIG) via a long put position.

Stay tuned for more trade alerts this week. I am putting the finishing touches on a few that I am very excited about.

Around the Portfolio:

Carbonite leaped 30% last week. While the move coincided with the company’s earnings release, it was future guidance and the acquisition of a major competitor that was likely behind the big move.

Earnings for the quarter came in as expected but revenue was a few million dollars light. This was forgiven for two reasons. The first is that Carbonite is acquiring Mozy, a significant competitor currently owned by Dell. Mozy will contribute $52 million in revenue and $.25 in earnings this year.

Mozy’s business is focused on the corporate end of the spectrum with 85% of revenue from business offerings. This is super important to Carbonite who is transitioning away from its more volatile consumer products.

In addition, guidance for 2018 increased by $.50, half from Mozy and half from improved company numbers. Based on these new numbers I am increasing my Carbonite price target from $23 to $37.

Celgene (NSDQ: CELG) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays. The analyst says the current valuation largely reflects the risk regarding the company’s concentration of sales from Revlimid. He notes Celgene’s risk/reward profile based on his net present value analysis yields an “attractive upside case.”

Revlimid is Celgene’s largest (60% of sales) drug. It is a cancer drug recommended for multiple myeloma. It is covered by patents until at least 2022 but investors fear Celgene won’t have enough new drugs to replace lost sales from generics in the future. The company is using the huge profits generated by Revlimid to deliver new drugs, like Otezla, an ulcer-related drug. An approval for plaque psoriasis is helping drive Otezla sales which grew 26%, to $1.2 billion last year. The company’s purchase of Juno is part of the plan to help fill that hole.

Celgene will be at an investor conference this week on Feb. 21. I’ll be reviewing the transcript for any new information but think the stock looks like a tremendous value at this level.

Ichor Holdings rebounded a bit last week but I expect it to be stronger based on the super bullish commentary from Applied Materials (NSDQ: AMAT) last week. Applied Materials is a 46% customer of Ichor’s and it reported strong earnings. In its commentary, it specifically noted increased momentum in demand for semiconductor equipment. Ichor supplies unique components to Applied for these machines.

The stock was upgraded to Strong Buy from Buy at Needham and announced a $50M stock repurchase program.

Steven Madden (NSDQ: SHOO) enjoyed some bullish commentary from an analyst at Canaccord who recently met with management. Analyst Camilo Lyon came away positive on the company’s late summer/early fall deliveries and the momentum the company currently carries into 2018.

Vulcan Materials (NYSE: VMC) reported a solid but not fabulous quarter last Friday. The stock sagged 6%. Although demand continues to be strong, profits have been crimped by higher transportation and fuel expenses.

CEO Tom Hill is optimistic about private demand and believes 2018 will mark an inflection point for several years of sustainable demand for the company’s aggregates which are used in building and road construction.

I still like the stock but am lowering my target to $150. I am researching some other names that may offer better value in the sector.

On earnings this week we have Pra Health Sciences (NSDQ:PRAH) and Masonite (NYSE: DOOR) reporting Feb. 22 before the market opens. I will keep you updated on how those come in.

Stock Talk

Biotech Rick

Biotech Rick

I was in Juno when it was acquired by CELG and booked an over 64K profit, then rolling everything over to CELG. A screaming buy at these levels to be sure! CAR-T is the next generation of cancer drugs with CELG having a collaboration agreement with BLUE as well. They too could be acquired. In short, BLUE seems (at this point) to have better results while JUNO has noticeably better safety overall. CELG plans to launch 10 potential blockbuster drugs over the next 5 years. Folks, we’re talking about somewhere in the neighborhood of 15B per year in annual sales. The hiccup of 2017 has not slowed them down. The future is bright for them to be an absolute earnings monster!

Stanley

Stanley

Hi Linda,
I also feel Celegen is oversold at this price as are other drug stocks
I just picked up April 85/90 puts with $1.16 credit.
Thanks

Jeffrey Shultz

Jeffrey Shultz

Linda,

Should I be at all hopeful about something good happening to my SAIA March 16 100 calls or do you think I should eat the loss? (It’s down over 80% from my 1/29 purchase so I don’t know if it’s got enough room to recover or it’s simply decided to die a slow short-term death as a personal favor to me, no doubt to soar beginning the next trading day.)

Edward Getchell

Edward Getchell

Linda, RE: your comment, ” I am increasing my Carbonite price target from $23 to $37. ” I find it helpful if you include a new limit price when you modify the target price.

I am baffled as to why the transportation stocks are swooning ….. SAIS, WERN, ODFL. as the economy seems to be thriving. (ATSG hasn’t shown much life either.) Do you have any idea why these ground transportation stocks have stalled?

Ed

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Edward,
Thanks for the comment. In the flurry of news, I forgot to include that information.
On CARB new target $37, buy limit $28
On VMC new target $150, buy limit $120
I am equally baffled and frustrated by the weakness in the shippers. It could be a case of running up too much in front of the numbers but the stocks look like great bargains to me.
I’ll be sure to post if I find any other news, I’m scouring the industry trade rags for info.
Best,
Linda

Skippie2000

Skippie2000

Any good news from Smart Sand? The stock has not done very well lately.

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Skippie,

Smart Sand (NSDQ: SND) got hit yesterday coincident with a poor outlook from competitor U.S. Silica (NSDQ: SLCA). While most of the profit pressure Silica suffered from seems due to a recent transportation acquisition it made, it also warned of weak sand demand in January.

Management noted that orders have picked up in February and that they believe the dip was due to extreme weather.

Smart Sand won’t report its fourth quarter until mid-March but we might get some insight from a presentation by management at a brokerage conference on Feb. 28. I have some calls into my industry people to get a sense if there is a bigger problem in the industry.

I’ll keep everyone in the loop with any new information I uncover.

Best,
Linda

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