A Recap on Facebook, ANI Pharma Tees Up its Big Drug and More…

Turbulence returned to the market last week.

Monday and Friday bookended the week with small gains with the middle stuffed with losses. The net result was a 2% drop in the S&P 500. This assault broke the somewhat calm we’ve seen in the market since the early February meltdown.

I expect more tantrums in the future. The problem, of course, is that these squalls are unpredictable. The stock market feeds on expectations. When data is humming along as expected, whether it be positive or negative, the direction of the market is easier to anticipate.

Like a toddler throwing a fit in the grocery store, the market craves a consistent schedule. The current problem is that despite some solid economic data, curveballs are coming left and right from Washington.

The market can handle administrative issues and even some legislative turmoil. But don’t mess with its economic data. When trade tariffs and higher interest rates start being tossed into the mix, a toxic brew can result. Slower growth is not in anyone’s model right now and both of these issues can strangle growth.

As you know, I added two put positions recently and have more to offer soon. The timing, as always, is critical. I’m doing my best to time them to stock specific events so I cannot always promise a uniform schedule of new trade alerts.

Which brings me to the late alert many of you received for the sale of the Facebook (NYSE: FB) puts. I posted the alert to the PCA site mid-morning. However, the text and email alerts were delayed to Mother Nature.

The main offices at Investing Daily who handle the text and email alerts lost power Friday due to the East Coast storm. This is why your alert came in so late.

The Facebook puts don’t expire until April and I don’t think the weakness we’ve seen in the stock is over. See my update below on the company’s presentation last week. The stock is tied into so many program trades that it is very tightly correlated to any sell-offs. Watch the puts closely but I expect you’ll have more opportunities to sell them at a terrific profit before the April expiration.

Around the Portfolio:

Air Transport Services (NSDQ: ATSG) reported fourth quarter EPS of 30c, 3c higher than consensus. Revenue was $323 million, $51 million higher than expected. Joe Hete, President, and CEO said, “Our 2017 results reflect substantial gains in the operational effectiveness and expanded flight schedules of our airlines during peak season, strong contributions from our other businesses, and growth in our leased freighter fleet, including external leases covering fifty of our sixty-one Boeing 767s.”

The company sees earnings increasing 16% in fiscal 2018 with ten more 767-300 planes coming into service. “Our outlook for 2018 is very positive,” Hete said. “We have firm customer commitments for all six of the 767 freighters we expect to deploy in the first half, and strong interest from customers for the others. We expect that as e-commerce retailers come to rely even more on air express networks to satisfy their customers’ need for speed, demand for the unique blend of aircraft assets and services that ATSG provides will remain strong.”

ANI Pharma (NSDQ: ANIP) reported an in-line quarter and gave guidance for a better than expected 2018. Most importantly management confirmed that re-commercialization efforts for its Cortrophin gel continue to progress in cadence with its internal timeline.

They went on to note that In the fourth quarter of 2017, the company successfully completed the manufacturing of 3 intermediate-scale batches of purified corticotropin powder, the active pharmaceutical ingredient and plans to initiate commercial-scale manufacturing in early 2018. This drug is the reason I have suggested ANI as a core holding and I’m quite excited to see this terrific progress for a very hard to make drug.

Big Lots (NYSE: BIG) reports Friday, March 9 before the market opens. The conference call is at 8AM and can be accessed via the investor relations portion of the company’s website. I expect weak guidance for the March quarter due to soft furniture sales, particularly mattresses, which have been driving sales.

Celgene (NSDQ: CELG) continues to inflict pain, dropping 6% last week on bad news from the FDA regarding a new drug filing. The filing is for Ozanimod, a treatment for multiple sclerosis. The filing was rejected by the FDA due to insufficient data in certain sections. This does not mean the drug will not eventually get approved but is a costly and embarrassing mistake for a company of Celgene’s size and experience.

I have been very frustrated with the stock but believe its current product portfolio is in good shape. I am reviewing some of the sales assumptions for all of its products to decide if we bunt this one out of the portfolio or keep it with a limit. The company’s earnings and balance sheet are really quite strong and I think investors are sick of being burnt by big pharma stocks and losing patience with bad news and ignoring its solid current earnings.

Jazz Pharmaceuticals (NSDQ: JAZZ) reported Q4 adjusted EPS $2.95, consensus $3.01 and revenue of $436.4M, slightly less than consensus due to supply issues of one of its smaller drugs. The quarter was pretty bland but guidance for 2018 is better than analysts had hoped.

After the earnings release it announced that the FDA has accepted for filing with standard review the company’s New Drug Application (NDA) seeking marketing approval for solriamfetol, an investigational medicine for the treatment of excessive sleepiness in adult patients with narcolepsy or obstructive sleep apnea. The FDA is required to make a decision on the approval of this drug for this particular indication by December 20, 2018.

Analysts currently expect 18% earnings growth from Jazz this year, a very feasible expectation. Yet the stock trades with a P/E of 11 times, an incredible disconnect in value.

Facebook CFO David M. Wehner and COO Sheryl Kara Sandberg presented a Morgan Stanley conference last week. Although both were bullish on Facebook’s long-term prospects, Sandberg admitted that 2018 would be a difficult year for the company as it devotes resources to vetting out news stories and changes the dynamics of news feeds. CFO David Wehner specified that revenue growth last quarter included a tiny 4% increase in the number of ads delivered. The rest of the growth came from price increases. Based on the weakness Facebook has seen in its user base and the number of hours spent on the site, maintaining super high revenue growth might be troublesome.

Target (NYSE: TGT) reports Tuesday before the market opens. As a reminder, I am bullish on Target due to the new designers and brands it launched in apparel and housewares. The company’s curbside pick-up for online orders should be firing up its e-commerce sales.

Be on the lookout for a possible sell alert on the Target call options that day.

Stock Talk

Stanley

Stanley

Hi Linda,
Barons had a nice article Sunday on TGT. We may see a bump this morning.
Stan

George McMillion

George McMillion

Thanks for the updates.

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