Target Hits the Bull’s Eye, NXP Semi Makes the Cut and more…

Despite the dog days of summer, the market never sleeps. This constant motion is partly why I continuously monitor four or five lists of stocks that contain a total of roughly 200 stocks. It can feel overwhelming to attempt to follow so many stocks, but it is a critical way for me to stay on top of new opportunities for Profit Catalyst Alert subs.

Our purchase today of NXP Semiconductor (NSDQ: NXPI) derives from one of those lists. This list includes names of stocks I’d like to own, that is, I am impressed by the fundamentals, but the valuations are too high. When there is a jolt from an external event (in this case, the inability for Qualcomm (NSDQ: QCOM) to get its proposed purchase of NXP approved), I can be on alert for a possible trade.

There’s the “short” list of names I’m monitoring for bearish trades. These are stocks where I’ve seen some issue with industry trends or company specific numbers. There’s the value list, cheap stocks where I’m waiting for some sort of catalyst. I also attempt to keep track of names I’ve included in the portfolio in the past (bullish and bearish) but have closed the trade. Once you know a stock well, it’s much easier to get back up to speed for a new trade.

I’ve got a few more great ideas in my pocket that I hope to publish on as soon as the final details are worked through so keep your eyes peeled for trade alerts.

As we enter the holiday weekend, we have just one company reporting earnings this week. It is BJ’s Wholesale (NYSE: BJ). While I believe the earnings should be on track, I’m a bit worried that hopes are riding quite high in retail land. After the blow-out numbers from Walmart (NYSE: WMT) and Target (NYSE: TGT), I fear “whisper numbers” or unpublished hopeful estimates, might be getting ahead of themselves.

I’m not recommending a sale of the stock, but those more inclined to trade than hold for longer-term fundamentals might think about a quick trade.

Tuesday: AM BJ’s Wholesale Club

Around the Portfolio:

Abbvie (NSDQ: ABBV) might see a small pop due to the FDA’s approval of its cancer drug IMBRUVICA, for use in combination with rituximab for the treatment of adult patients with Waldenström’s macroglobulinemia. This particular type of lymphoma is rare, so the impact on revenue is likely to be small. However, any positive interaction with the FDA is a welcome event.

AGCO Corp. (NSDQ: AGCO) will hopefully retrace down some of its upward moves when details of the proposed $12 billion farm aid package are released. I expect that the package will be significantly less robust than initially contemplated. Farm equipment stocks are up on the hope that this package will save the finances of those hit by soybean tariffs. News sources note the details might come as early as today (Monday).

Carbonite (NSDQ: CARB) got a big boost with a Buy rating from Stifel. The analyst’s price target is $44 and is based on the bullish thesis that the company’s transition from consumer to large corporate customers will serve it well. This thesis has been my mantra on the stock since my recommendation 18 months ago. The stock is the biggest winner on the books currently, but estimates continue to rise, allowing my target to move upward.

Stifel believes the dynamics of cloud backup security should enable Carbonite to drive double-digit top-line growth and margin expansion. For these reasons, along with an attractive valuation at ~5x CY20E EV/recurring revenue, they start with a Buy.

Ichor Holdings, Ltd. (NSDQ: ICHR), enjoyed a much-needed bounce when it was added to the S&P SmallCap 600 Index.

The company also announced the authorization of an additional $50 million for buybacks.  Management included this bullish commentary with the news release:

“We expect 2018 will be another record revenue year for Ichor, with revenue growth outperforming the industry, along with increasing gross and operating margins year-over-year, record earnings, and significant free cash flow generation,” commented Chairman and CEO Tom Rohrs. “Earlier this year we announced a $50 million share repurchase program, which we completed in July, purchasing 2.2 million shares at average price of $22.78. Ichor’s management team and board of directors firmly believe in our long-term growth prospects, and we are also committed to efficient capital allocation. Given our continued confidence in the strength of the Company and our outlook for strong free cash flow generation, we have allocated an additional $50 million in capital toward opportunistic stock repurchases.”

Systemax (NYSE: SYX) enjoyed a quick bounce up to $40 on an upgrade to Buy from Neutral at Sidoti. Analyst Anthony Lebiedzinski said the recent selloff in shares is overdone and maintained a $45 price target.

Target hit the bull’s eye with a fabulous earnings release. The company beat revenue and earnings expectations, primarily on a terrific sales number. It reported its best comp sales number (how much sales have grown without the addition of new stores, i.e., a more accurate measure of pure sales growth), in ten years.

Most importantly, traffic, or the number of customer visits, rose 6.4%. I prefer to see retailers beating sales estimates on customer traffic than the level of average purchases as that number can be skewed by price increases.

While the strong economy is partly responsible for the beat, I believe Target’s new merchandisers in its apparel and home goods areas are delivering unique products that resonate with customers and are more likely the impetus for the strong sales.  Citigroup, Barclays, Merrill Lynch and MKM all raised their targets from the $70’s to a range of $90-$99.

Stock Talk

George McMillion

George McMillion

BTO NXPI 100 Call @ $1.66 Debit on TOS

Thank you Linda

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