BJ’s Joins Retail Resurrection, Bullish Call on Autos and more…
August delivered all that could be expected for vacationers and investors. High temps, sunny skies, and rocketing markets. With the S&P 500 up 8.5% year to date and up 3% just in the last month, many seers are worried about the dreaded month of September.
I am too. As I’ve expounded on these pages before, the breadth of the market and the valuation of many sectors make me nervous. I had a bearish trade all teed up for this morning, but due to some overnight action in the targeted stocks, I’m waiting for a better entry point.
All of my trade suggestions are formulated some time in advance of the actual trade alert. Sometimes I’m waiting for a catalyst event; sometimes I’m attempting to enter the trade at the most opportune price. Sadly, some of the trade ideas I’m working on end up in the circular file if the stocks move too quickly.
I did issue a bullish options trade on General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Ford (NYSE: F). This is the beauty of my hedge fund experience; I am accustomed to finding stock situations that will hopefully take advantage of up and down movements in the market.
Luckily, my inventory of ideas is pretty full, and I’ll be issuing more trade alerts shortly.
There are no earnings on tap this week or the next few weeks. Most of the catalysts over the next months will be investor conferences and non-earnings related company news.
Around the Portfolio:
BJ’s Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJ) reported solid results. Earnings and revenue were just slightly above expectations, a result that may have seemed disappointing to some based on the blowout numbers delivered by some of its competitors.
But after a slight dip, investors decided the quarter made steady progress and that the stock is a bargain versus stocks like Costco (NSDQ: COST), which trades for a higher P/E but is growing slower than BJ’s. Part of my bullish thesis on the stock is that as a new IPO it is “under-owned” by funds and will rise as they add it to their portfolios.
The Chemours Company (NYSE: CC) slumped as investors fretted about auto production amidst uncertainty over the fate of NAFTA. Although early reports noted firm deal parameters with Mexico regarding auto tariffs, the countries missed a self-imposed deadline (last Friday) to reach agreement on a NAFTA replacement. Auto stocks fell as well, but I expect all to rebound as the valuations seem to reflect a worst-case scenario.
The call option trades that I suggested today on Ford and General Motors are based on the expectation that sentiment will shift as the U.S., Canada and Mexico come to a resolution on auto tariffs.
Argentina stocks continue freefall as Peso slid to record low vs. the USD as the central bank raised interest rates to 60%. Despegar (NSDQ: DESP) fell along with these stocks. It is dangerously close to my $16.00 stop limit. If the stock closes below $16.00 for two consecutive days, I suggest selling it.
Some subscribers have rightly been wondering what catalyst might move Smart Sand (NSDQ: SND) higher. The stock is the worst performing one in our portfolio. The company reported healthy numbers on August 9th, but the stock’s bounce petered out quickly.
I do not love the company’s pivot to investing large sums in transportation logistics for its sand but still do believe the stock is worth significantly more than its current $5 price. The company presents at an investor conference today (Monday) in the afternoon. I plan on reviewing the transcript for any new information. Other than that, the next firm catalyst is earnings in early November. I will keep subscribers posted on any other newsworthy events.
Steven Madden (NSDQ: SHOO) should see continued strength in sales as its top customers deliver fabulous numbers. DSW Inc. (NYSE: DSW) is the latest retailer to report robust sales. DSW, along with Target (NYSE: TGT), Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) and Walmart (NYSE: WMT), is one of Madden’s biggest customers. DSW management highlighted sandals, athleisure and kids’ sneakers, all categories that Madden supplies to them, as the best performing products.
Systemax (NYSE: SYX) initiated with a Market Perform at William Blair. The analyst highlighted the company’s unique expertise as an industrial distributor, one area without significant online competition. He expects double-digit earnings growth for the next several years.