Looking Ahead After Our Pre-Spring Cleaning

It’s been a pre-spring cleaning here at Profit Catalyst Alert.

Over the past few weeks, I’ve scrutinized every holding in our portfolio, selling out of positions where I think our near-term upside is limited. Last week, that meant clearing out four retail holdings that are likely to see some near-term downside due to the polar vortex shutting down shopping across large areas of the country.

I feel good about where the portfolio stands right now, so let’s put down the dust rag and focus on what’s left. Below is a quick review of our remaining holdings, each with strong upside potential over the next 6 to 12 months.

Around the Portfolio:

Air Transport Services Group (NSDQ: ATSG): This stock still ranks as one of my favorites in the portfolio. It has a wide moat (a fleet of perfectly sized freight delivery planes). I expect the company to report a continuation of steady growth via its partnership with Amazon when it reports earnings on February 26th.

Masco (NYSE: MAS): As with my original recommendation, I expect Masco to outperform housing supply stocks due to its exposure to the remodeling market. A hiatus in interest rate increases should help the group. Expectations for mid-teens earnings growth may be too low and if earnings beat, the stock’s P/E will expand dramatically.

NXP Semiconductor (NSDQ: NXPI): This one has been tough to love. Just after I recommended it, almost every semiconductor stock blew up due to weak demand from China. I expect a slow and steady ramp up by NXP, which is more closely correlated to automation in the auto industry than traditional tech stocks.

PayPal (NSDQ: PYPL): This one is my second favorite stock in the portfolio. I believe its first-mover advantage with Venmo will cement its status as the “must-use” person to person payment app. It also makes the company an acquisition target for any big bank that is not gaining traction in the fastest growing sector of banking.

Smart Sand (NSDQ: SND): I expect a slow and steady recovery in this name. If oil chugs higher, the stock will respond accordingly. If oil falters, I believe the stock is as low as it will get. The company has built up an attractive delivery network for its high-quality sand and should see cash flow rebound as it benefits from that investment.

Steelcase (NSDQ: SCS): This small cap is in its own little orbit. It is a distributor of office related furniture and equipment that has inoculated itself against Amazon threats via expert customer service and unique design. It trades at just 13 times next year’s earnings and has a 5% free cash flow yield.

Synchrony Financial (NYSE: SYF): The valuation on Synchrony reflects fears about consumer debt levels and their ability to pay off credit card bills. My recommendation on the stock rests on the company’s focus on limited but high credit quality growth. I expect it to move higher as investors recalibrate the risk premium on the stock.

Systemax (NSDQ: SYX): This small cap is yet another that has flown under Amazon’s radar. Its specialty is government requisitioned office supplies. Believe it or not, the expertise required to deal with government orders is fairly high. The stock should continue to march higher based on mid-teens earnings growth.

The Chemours Company (NYSE: CC): This stock trades like a cyclical company with little unique capabilities. Nothing is further from the truth. Chemours is one of two suppliers of a coolant that will replace one outlawed by the government. It has been battered due to its exposure to European and Chinese auto production via its auto paint chemical segment. As auto production stabilizes and sales continue to grow from the government mandate I expect the stock to move higher.

Stock Talk

John N

John N

Looks like SND is finally making its slow comeback! SYX is also finally making a more positive move.
I will miss this service the most of the three that got canned. 🙁



totally agree about missing the service the most of those canned.

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