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Dr. C
Linda,
Please comment on CRTO and it’s continuous decline. I love the Co., but what is happening to the stock it has dropped continuously since you recommended it. Is there a reason for the decline? What’s your view. If it can’t hold 34 the stock is shot technically, well it was shot technically a long time ago…but??????
Linda McDonough
Dr. C.,
The weakness in Criteo is indeed frustrating. Morgan Stanley lowered its long term growth rate and estimates on the company this week. It appears due to some assumptions regarding the company’s recent acquisition. I have reviewed the filings and have a call into the company to get more information but the numbers I have reviewed confirm the story is in tact. I will come back with more information when I hear back from management.
Best,
Linda
You have not recomended that many positions, but I get the feeling you don’t follow them very carefully after the initial recommendation??? ANd that’s ok, some analyst are really good at finding new opportunities and stick to that process, others follow their recommendations very closely, and can tell you what time they take out the garbage. As a subscriber I just need to know the your style. CRTO for example is not a company that I follow, so I was counting on current research and you’re keeping up with the fundamentals. Maybe it would be helpful if you can just share with us what your process is to recommend a position and then your process between the time you make the recomendation and the time you recommend a sale. Also, I asked you to comment on how the issue will trade as a US ADR trading on the CAC??
Linda, I would send these questions to you directly and would be happy if you want to send me an email with the reply rather than publishing my question. I just don’t see a mechagnism to email you directly.
Thanks,
Curtis
Linda McDonough
Dear Curtis,
Thank you for the questions. I prefer to answer them on this thread as I would love to share my process with all subscribers. In fact, my process involves incredibly in depth analysis. On Criteo I have published 12 updates since my initial recommendation on March 8. (you can find them by searching the ticker on PCA site). These include reviews of the company’s quarters, earnings calls, competitor products and filings and conversations with the company’s management. I am sorry that you feel I have not covered the stock in depth as I pride myself on following my portfolio stocks incredibly closely. I also have a quarterly model of earnings, balance sheet and cash flow statements including relevant metrics for each company to make sure the numbers are moving in the right direction.
My first newsletters in January and February 2016 have detailed descriptions of my stock picking process. Basically I look for company’s that are undergoing important changes in their businesses. I then analyze those for strong earning’s potential and solid balance sheets. While it may not be evident from my smaller sized portfolio I review about 100 stocks a week in order to find those that I choose for PCA.
The stocks that I have sold due to poor performance have had issues that were not predictable and not issues that crept into their numbers. I am being more conservative in cutting stocks from the portfolio that are under performing but hate to sell a stock if the weakness is due to a one quarter blip. I have sell stops on all the names in the portfolio which will be included in the table going forward.
While I do intend to add more names more quickly to give subscribers more stocks to choose from I will not cut corners on my analysis. I speak to every management team possible, research competitors, speak to industry experts and as I mentioned above create very detailed financial models on every single stock.
Please do post any other questions or let me know if I haven’t answered these in full. I appreciate your subscription and want all subs to know as much as possible about my process.
Best,
Linda
Hi,
I acquired some STS based on one of your articles for PF (I believe) and the stock got hammered on Friday and today following what appeared to be pretty good numbers during their conference call – can you dig deeper and let me know if I should stick with it? Thank you
Linda McDonough
Hi RJ-
Supreme was in the Growth Stock Strategist portfolio but was sold on September 20th. The stock was up 50% since my original recommendation. Unfortunately the weakness in large truck orders that has been hurting the bigger trucking companies leaked down into Supreme’s business. The current quarter was okay but backlog, an indication of future orders, was down 22%. The stock looks cheap but I need to get more comfortable with current estimates before recommending it as a buy.
Best,
Linda
Melody, Brunswick (NYSE: BC) reported third quarter earnings today. Despite meeting analysts’ estimates and increasing the low end of expectations for the year, the stock dropped 7%. Analysts focused on management’s comment that global boat unit demand would be at the lower end of the 3-5% range this year. The company is seeing weaker than expected demand from international markets. Although this guidance for boat growth does not change estimates materially, investors in Brunswick are hypersensitive to demand trends for boats.
That said, the company is on track for earnings for this year and next. The balance sheet is in good shape with receivables from customers flat from last year and inventories down a bit. Both of these metrics illustrate a healthy customer base. I expect the stock to rebound as I don’t see a material change in the trends and estimates have held firm at $3.45 for this year and $4.00 for 2017.
Best,
Linda
Linda, thank you for your update. I saw the earnings for BC as well. I am just concerned for my portfolio as so many of the stocks you offered up are near break even or down. I have been with you for since you started so getting concerned. My portfolio is down quite a bit overall from your stock picks.
I am hoping we see a turn-around soon.
Linda McDonough
Melody, I share your frustration. This really feels like a trader’s market. Most of our names have been up at least 20% at one point in the year but I held on to them thinking they could move higher with strong fundamentals. Experience has shown me that eventually strong fundamentals support higher prices but I appreciate the time horizon many are working with. I’m adding more bearish options to take advantage of the dips and will be more likely to sell if a name isn’t living up to my expectations. Thank you for sticking with me- I do appreciate your subscription.
Best,
Linda
Stock Talk
Dr. C
Linda,
Please comment on CRTO and it’s continuous decline. I love the Co., but what is happening to the stock it has dropped continuously since you recommended it. Is there a reason for the decline? What’s your view. If it can’t hold 34 the stock is shot technically, well it was shot technically a long time ago…but??????
Linda McDonough
Dr. C.,
The weakness in Criteo is indeed frustrating. Morgan Stanley lowered its long term growth rate and estimates on the company this week. It appears due to some assumptions regarding the company’s recent acquisition. I have reviewed the filings and have a call into the company to get more information but the numbers I have reviewed confirm the story is in tact. I will come back with more information when I hear back from management.
Best,
Linda
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Dr. C
You have not recomended that many positions, but I get the feeling you don’t follow them very carefully after the initial recommendation??? ANd that’s ok, some analyst are really good at finding new opportunities and stick to that process, others follow their recommendations very closely, and can tell you what time they take out the garbage. As a subscriber I just need to know the your style. CRTO for example is not a company that I follow, so I was counting on current research and you’re keeping up with the fundamentals. Maybe it would be helpful if you can just share with us what your process is to recommend a position and then your process between the time you make the recomendation and the time you recommend a sale. Also, I asked you to comment on how the issue will trade as a US ADR trading on the CAC??
Linda, I would send these questions to you directly and would be happy if you want to send me an email with the reply rather than publishing my question. I just don’t see a mechagnism to email you directly.
Thanks,
Curtis
Linda McDonough
Dear Curtis,
Thank you for the questions. I prefer to answer them on this thread as I would love to share my process with all subscribers. In fact, my process involves incredibly in depth analysis. On Criteo I have published 12 updates since my initial recommendation on March 8. (you can find them by searching the ticker on PCA site). These include reviews of the company’s quarters, earnings calls, competitor products and filings and conversations with the company’s management. I am sorry that you feel I have not covered the stock in depth as I pride myself on following my portfolio stocks incredibly closely. I also have a quarterly model of earnings, balance sheet and cash flow statements including relevant metrics for each company to make sure the numbers are moving in the right direction.
My first newsletters in January and February 2016 have detailed descriptions of my stock picking process. Basically I look for company’s that are undergoing important changes in their businesses. I then analyze those for strong earning’s potential and solid balance sheets. While it may not be evident from my smaller sized portfolio I review about 100 stocks a week in order to find those that I choose for PCA.
The stocks that I have sold due to poor performance have had issues that were not predictable and not issues that crept into their numbers. I am being more conservative in cutting stocks from the portfolio that are under performing but hate to sell a stock if the weakness is due to a one quarter blip. I have sell stops on all the names in the portfolio which will be included in the table going forward.
While I do intend to add more names more quickly to give subscribers more stocks to choose from I will not cut corners on my analysis. I speak to every management team possible, research competitors, speak to industry experts and as I mentioned above create very detailed financial models on every single stock.
Please do post any other questions or let me know if I haven’t answered these in full. I appreciate your subscription and want all subs to know as much as possible about my process.
Best,
Linda
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RJ
Hi,
I acquired some STS based on one of your articles for PF (I believe) and the stock got hammered on Friday and today following what appeared to be pretty good numbers during their conference call – can you dig deeper and let me know if I should stick with it? Thank you
Linda McDonough
Hi RJ-
Supreme was in the Growth Stock Strategist portfolio but was sold on September 20th. The stock was up 50% since my original recommendation. Unfortunately the weakness in large truck orders that has been hurting the bigger trucking companies leaked down into Supreme’s business. The current quarter was okay but backlog, an indication of future orders, was down 22%. The stock looks cheap but I need to get more comfortable with current estimates before recommending it as a buy.
Best,
Linda
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Melody Pfingsten
Can you explain BC downward spiral?
Linda McDonough
Melody, Brunswick (NYSE: BC) reported third quarter earnings today. Despite meeting analysts’ estimates and increasing the low end of expectations for the year, the stock dropped 7%. Analysts focused on management’s comment that global boat unit demand would be at the lower end of the 3-5% range this year. The company is seeing weaker than expected demand from international markets. Although this guidance for boat growth does not change estimates materially, investors in Brunswick are hypersensitive to demand trends for boats.
That said, the company is on track for earnings for this year and next. The balance sheet is in good shape with receivables from customers flat from last year and inventories down a bit. Both of these metrics illustrate a healthy customer base. I expect the stock to rebound as I don’t see a material change in the trends and estimates have held firm at $3.45 for this year and $4.00 for 2017.
Best,
Linda
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Melody Pfingsten
Linda, thank you for your update. I saw the earnings for BC as well. I am just concerned for my portfolio as so many of the stocks you offered up are near break even or down. I have been with you for since you started so getting concerned. My portfolio is down quite a bit overall from your stock picks.
I am hoping we see a turn-around soon.
Linda McDonough
Melody, I share your frustration. This really feels like a trader’s market. Most of our names have been up at least 20% at one point in the year but I held on to them thinking they could move higher with strong fundamentals. Experience has shown me that eventually strong fundamentals support higher prices but I appreciate the time horizon many are working with. I’m adding more bearish options to take advantage of the dips and will be more likely to sell if a name isn’t living up to my expectations. Thank you for sticking with me- I do appreciate your subscription.
Best,
Linda
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