Australian Retail Remains a Bright Spot

Australia’s retail sector continues to be one of the few bright spots for the country’s economy as the resource boom comes undone.

And while the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that retail sales fell short of economists’ consensus forecast in November, sales still managed to eke out enough growth to sustain a six-month streak of positive results.

According to the ABS, retail turnover rose 0.1% month over month in November, following a rise of 0.4% in the prior month.

The consensus forecast had called for growth of 0.2%. Economists had expected that lower prices at the gas pump along with the wealth effect from the country’s rising real estate market would help boost spending. But sales may have finally succumbed to weak consumer sentiment, at least for one month.

In seasonally adjusted terms, food retailing rose 0.6%, while cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services climbed 0.8% and household goods retailing was up 0.6%. Sales at department stores were flat, while clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing fell by 0.7%.

Economists interpret the latest numbers as indicative of the need for additional monetary stimulus from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

In fact, based on futures data aggregated by Bloomberg, a majority of traders are now betting the central bank will cut its short-term cash rate by at least a quarter point at its April meeting, while a still-substantial 42% believe a rate cut could happen as soon as the March meeting. The RBA has held its benchmark cash rate at an all-time low of 2.5% since August 2013.

At the same time, we find it remarkable that retail sales have held up so well amid a challenging job market–unemployment hit a 12-year high of 6.3% in November–that’s sapped consumer sentiment.

Although the Westpac-Melbourne Institute’s Consumer Confidence Index suffered a sharp drop over the past year as euphoria following the country’s federal elections in September 2013 quickly faded, retail sales managed to achieve positive growth in all but one month last year.

During 2014, retail sales growth averaged 0.4% per month year to date through November, compared to 0.3% per month over the trailing five-year period. Still, the near-term trajectory is downward, though presumably we’ll learn that the holiday season provided a lift when those data eventually become available.

Indeed, according to The Australian, J.P. Morgan senior economist Ben Jarman notes, “Retail industry reporting suggests late December/early January was better overall.”

And The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Deutsche Bank analysts said discussions with unlisted retailers suggested that while the lead-up to Christmas was relatively slow, the final days before the holidays and the last week of 2014 seemed to have been strong.

“The last week of December was a record week for a number of apparel retailers we spoke to, with some reporting December like-for-like growth in the high-single digits, notwithstanding sales that were flat at best in the first three weeks,” Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Simotas said.

Even so, sales growth could be somewhat pinched after the sluggish period leading into Christmas prompted frantic discounting during the final week.

Economists still expect falling prices at the pump will eventually flow through to consumer spending. Mr. Jarman says lower oil prices offer “clear support for disposable income and discretionary spending near-term” despite consumers’ anxiety about the economy’s effect on their personal finances.

But he cautions that consumers are “hamstrung by soft income growth, which limits some of the benefits to retail spending from lower fuel prices.” Growth in real wages was negative during the third quarter.

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia estimates the average household will have an extra AUD70 per month, compared to mid-2014, if gas prices remain at current levels. The SMH says Citi analyst Craig Woodford characterized this as akin to a rate cut of 50 basis points.

And that effect could be compounded by a further easing in lending conditions if the RBA comes through with another rate cut or two.