China’s Deflategate: Not a Big Worry

Despite aggressive efforts by Chinese authorities to halt the slide, the Shanghai Composite Index is more than 27% off its mid-June peak. So far regulators have taken about every imaginable option to stop their over-inflated market from collapsing like a hot air balloon that’s low on propane.

They’ve bought shares, halted trading in wide swaths of the market, loosened lending rules, suspended new initial public offerings and even banned selling. None of which has actually stabilized the market. They may as well try to stop the tide from rolling in.

That’s a big problem for a government that has essentially made it un-Chinese not to buy stocks. But while its central planning apparatus may get a black eye, the Chinese economy is still doing fine.

For one thing, the Shanghai index is still up 74% over the trailing year. Stocks also account for a relatively small share China’s economy, with the value of shares available for trade amounting to only about one-third of the country’s gross domestic product, a far cry from the more than 100% in most developed economies.

And despite the government’s efforts to encourage more of its populace to invest, only about 6% of Chinese are actually in stocks, and they have less than 10% of their savings in the market. By way of comparison, more than half of Americans have some investment in stocks.

Given the still relatively small size of the Chinese stock market, a strong case can be made for the government to simply back off—let the market finish shaking out the excesses. Committing to support share prices is an expensive proposition that could lock the government into years of interventions.

At the same time, loosening lending standards and basically compelling financial institutions to offer cheap margin accounts just allows more excesses to build up, potentially exacerbating the problem down the road.

Propping up a flagging market to maintain credibility with Chinese investors is also harmful to China’s long-term goal of attracting more foreign investors. Not only are foreigners an important source of capital, opening up the country’s financial markets is a critical step in making the Chinese yuan a global currency. In fact, the International Monetary Fund is considering adding the yuan to its Special Drawing Rights basket, which would effectively make the yuan a global reserve currency.

Foreign investors are understandably leery of getting involved in markets prone to government intervention though, since it can be a fickle thing. That support could go just as easily as it comes, which adds another layer of uncertainty and risk to a market already criticized for weak accounting and transparency. The Economist recently called it a “casino,” “with share prices bearing little connection to underlying economic conditions.”

 It is estimated that $225 billion of capital left the country in the second quarter alone.

It’s also one reason why we generally avoid Chinese equities, favoring high-quality companies with firm pricing power and economies of scale. Truly global businesses that aren’t over dependent on any one country are much better able to weather out these times of high volatility. The two Chinese companies we do have in our portfolios also happen to meet those criteria.