Additional Opportunities in Wearable Tech

While the consumer side of wearable technology gets most of the attention these days, the components and enterprise segments look to offer solid growth opportunities as well.

Cowen & Co. estimates that the wearable technology market is on track to top $100 billion in five years (on its way to $170 billion in 2020), up from around $10 billion this year.

The firm forecasts that between now and 2020 the fastest growth will take place in components and the enterprise. Today, it’s estimated that the consumer segment  (made up of fitness and lifestyle/entertainment) represents just over 60% of the market, while components make up around 29%. Healthcare and enterprise are at 9% and 1%, respectively.

By 2020, components (driven in part by solid demand on the consumer side) could account for as much as 35% of the wearables market, with the enterprise segment, boasting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 132%, expanding to 8%. The consumer share is expected to drift down to 50% of the market, while healthcare stays relatively stable.

One company well positioned on the components side is NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), one of the early pioneers of Near Field Communication (NFC), the short-range communication technology that allows mobile phones and reception devices (other mobile phones, wearables, payment terminals and ID readers) to “talk” to each other within a distance of about four inches.

With the wave or tap of a smartphone or wearable, users are able to make a payment, read information tags, access secured environments and exchange contact information. NFC chips can hold financial information, gift cards, loyalty cards and coupon subscriptions. For 2014, research firm Gartner predicts shipments of NFC-enabled smartphones alone will hit 550 million, up 83% from last year. The iPhone 6 and 6 Plus are expected to include NFC chips from NXP.

NXP is the dominant leader in providing solutions for secure mobile transactions, with a roughly 80% share of the market for contactless security chips used for consumer banking cards, government-issued IDs and passport programs. In 2013, revenue from the company’s ID unit (chips for smart cards, tags, labels and readers) represented 28% of total product revenue.

Following the recent data breaches at several large retailers, a broad movement is taking shape to transition to more secure EMV (chip card) technology from traditional magnetic stripe cards. While the cost to issue an EMV card can be 10x higher compared to mag stripe cards, a recent survey of financial institutions showed that 70% are currently looking into EMV, with 40% of the respondents actively planning to shift to the new technology.

Morgan Stanley predicts chip-based payment cards (contact and dual interface) will grow at a 20% CAGR, hitting $1.1 billion in 2018. With faster EMV adoption in the U.S. and a solid pricing environment, the firm believes the CAGR could hit 26%.

For NXP’s ID unit, Morgan Stanley is forecasting double-digit revenue growth over the coming years, reaching 30% of total revenue in 2016 from just 15% in 2010, thanks to low penetration rates in markets such as banking and NFC.

Always a good sign: Earnings estimates for NXP Semiconductors are on the rise. For 2014, the consensus EPS estimate over the past 60 days has advanced to $4.65 from $4.41, while the 2015 consensus has gone to $5.39 from $5.04.

Recently around $71.35, NXP Semiconductors shares trade at 13.2 times the 2015 consensus, below the expected growth rate of 15.9%. So far this year, the stock has increased 55%. With the excitement surrounding the debut of the iPhone 6, the shares are up 14% just since the end of July. The stock looks extended over the short term; NXP Semiconductors would be more attractive on a pullback into the mid $60s.

The enterprise segment of wearable technology is closely aligned with the Internet of Things (IoT), which involves objects interacting with each other and their environments. It’s the combination of sensors, actuators, distributed computing power and wireless communications on the hardware side integrated with applications and big data analytics on the software side.

By the end of 2020, the installed base of “things” could top 200 billion worldwide, including some 30 billion installed autonomous things, largely driven by intelligent systems that will be collecting data across both enterprise and consumer applications, according to research firm IDC.

In the enterprise analytics piece of the IoT trend, Splunk (SPLK) will be a major beneficiary, as its solutions are used to collect and analyze machine data, the fastest growing piece of the big data pie. The company’s name might sound funny, but Splunk has been putting up some serious growth numbers, with revenue in fiscal Q2 (July) advancing 52% to $101.5 million. Deferred revenue was up 62% to $206.9 million.

All processor-based systems (think handsets, wearables, GPS devices, RFID tags, automobiles, airplanes, medical devices, HVAC controllers and smart meters) continuously generate machine data, both structured and unstructured. Splunk’s software platform enables organizations to gain operational intelligence by sorting through all of this data.

The software collects and indexes data at massive scale, regardless of the format or source. Customers are able to quickly and easily search, correlate, analyze, monitor and report this data in real time.

The company’s solutions are designed to accelerate adoption and ROI for customers; users can download and install Splunk software in a matter of hours. Once up and running, users connect to the relevant machine data sources and begin gaining insights. The company’s solutions don’t require customization or involve long deployment cycles and extensive professional services commonly associated with traditional enterprise applications.

Customers can deploy apps on top of Splunk’s core data engine to provide additional functionality in the form of pre-built data inputs, searches, reports, alerts and dashboards. Splunk and a number of third-party developers have put together hundreds of apps (many of them available for free) covering specific use cases and verticals. The company also offers a select number of packaged solutions targeting a specific end market or use case, including Splunk for Enterprise Security and Splunk for PCI (aimed at the payment card industry).

Splunk has been adding 400 to 500 customers a quarter and now has an installed base of more than 7,900 accounts, up 32% from a year ago. Customers tend to be happy, as the company’s maintenance renewal rate is 94%. Most customers start out with a small purchase, then add from there. About 70% of Splunk’s license bookings each quarter come from existing customers.

As Splunk expands its presence across the enterprise, deal sizes are getting bigger. In fiscal Q2, the company had 226 transactions worth more than $100,000 each, a gain of 39% year over year and up 35% sequentially. The company has 226 sales reps (60% of which have at least 12 months of tenure), up 20% from the year-ago level.

The one sticking point with Splunk: With the stock trading around $60.50, the market cap of $7.2 billion is 16.8 times the fiscal 2015 (Jan.) consensus revenue estimate of $428 million and 12.6 times the fiscal ’16 consensus of $570 million.

I will keep an eye on Splunk, as it’s one of those names that can grow into a more reasonable valuation. If the overall market pulls back, Splunk shares would be subject to a sharp correction, potentially setting up a much better entry level.