Next Wave Portfolio—Qlik in View

Qlik Technologies (QLIK) is a leading provider of business intelligence (BI)/analytics solutions for the enterprise market. The company’s software allows users to visualize data from multiple sources in an effort to gain meaningful insights into what’s going on at a departmental level, with the goal to increase collaboration, improve overall operating efficiencies and reduce costs.

For 2015, visual data discovery tools are expected to grow 2.5 times faster than the rest of the BI market, according to research firm IDC.

Last year, there was an elevated level of concern about Qlik’s ability to execute ahead of the major launch of its newest data visualization offering. We know customers often defer purchases of existing solutions if they know something new is set for imminent debut. While Qlik promised a fluid, stepped launch, new product cycles often prove to be tricky to pull off without a hitch.

Qlik’s latest product cycle got off to a good start in last year’s June quarter. Part of the company’s recent outperformance can be attributed to generally strong underlying enterprise demand for BI software. For example, Ford Motor Company now deploys Qlik solutions to gain better insights from many disparate data sources. The main objective is to help the company optimize its supply chain, according to Qlik CEO Lars Bjork. With QlikView, Ford’s manufacturing plants are connected to suppliers, allowing all involved to leverage the platform to access the same information to drive improved operating results.

Qlik in June introduced Qlik Sense Desktop (available as a free download), the initial piece of the new visualization offering (the main Server edition came out in September), which aims to make BI tools easier to use for a wider variety of enterprise employees. The Server edition features server-side deployment, a mobile-first focus, collaboration and expanded enterprise capabilities.

According to Bjork, the company is bringing “BI out of the back office and into the front lines of business.” He sees Sense Desktop as a lead-generation source for the company because it’s expected to seed demand for Server.

With Qlik Sense, users can create simple drag-and-drop dashboards to help them better analyze and understand Big Data flowing across an organization. No Qlik-specific skills are needed, even for users who want to create their own apps.

More sophisticated users will be able to tap into the skills of a huge group of Web developers to build out more complex visualizations, according to Bjork. Qlik partner Deloitte was actively engaged with the Qlik Sense R&D team to help make the solution more compelling. A key feature: open APIs that will bring advanced Web development capabilities to industry-specific analytics applications.

The company’s core QlikView solution, a platform for guided analytics applications, will remain a key part of the portfolio. No one will be forced to move over to Qlik Sense Desktop/Server, meaning Qlik now has a two-product focus.

While QlikView will remain the solution of choice for Qlik analytics gurus, the new Sense visualization offering expands the company’s reach to a greater pool of potential buyers—those who want to quickly get up and running with an easy-to-use BI solution that’s capable of being accessed solely from a smartphone or tablet.

One important feature of the new solution is Storytelling, which allows users to go beyond static pictures to share their data visualization insights with others. Storytelling brings data visualization to life, enabling a live conversation between the creator of the story and the audience. Those viewing the story are able to interact with the prepared narrative, question the supporting material and help guide the decision-making process surrounding the data, says Bjork.

In Q3, Qlik’s revenue rose 26% to $131.3 million, coming in well above the consensus estimate of $124 million and the high end of the guidance range of $122 million to $126 million. License revenue growth accelerated to 24% from 11% in Q2, a positive indication that the new Sense offering is not disrupting business for the core QlikView product. Gross margin rose 70 basis points year over year to 86.3%.

Qlik ended the September quarter with more than 33,000 customers. Channel partners in Q3 generated about 52% of license and first-year maintenance revenue, while 48% came from the direct sales channel. The company continues to build out its internal sales force and improve overall sales execution

For 2014, Qlik maintained its revenue guidance range of $545 million to $555 million; the consensus revenue estimate of $554.1 million indicates growth of 17.8%. The 2015 consensus revenue estimate of $637 million represents growth of 15%.

Qlik shares recently traded at $29.25, down a bit from the 52-week high of $32.15 set last month. With the market cap at $2.64 billion, Qlik has a forward revenue multiple of 4.1 based on the consensus estimate.

Given Qlik’s large exposure to Europe (representing 52% of total revenue for the first nine months of 2014), I want to wait to hear the company’s outlook for the year ahead (it reports Q4 results in the middle of next month) before deciding whether to add it to the Next Wave Portfolio. Conservative 2015 guidance could lead to more of a pullback in the stock, setting up a better entry level.