Flash Alert: The Selloff

Last week’s selloff in global markets was swift and severe. While energy-related names held up better than the market at large, the sector certainly wasn’t immune to the bloodbath.

My broad, longer-term outlook for the stocks and sectors covered in The Energy Strategist is unchanged. However, in globally synchronized selloffs such as those we’ve witnessed in the past week, fundamentals tend to get thrown out the window; all stocks and sectors are touched by the selling. In light of the recent move, it’s time to reiterate some of the defense and hedging mechanisms I recommend in TES.

First, I refer all subscribers to the most-recent issue of TES, All Eyes On Gas. In that issue, I outline two options strategies for protecting gains in big winners. These strategies have proven their worth on countless occasions, including during the big selloff in May/June 2006.

I recommend that all subscribers review the hedging recommendations outlined in last week’s issue. Although some of the options recommended are more expensive now, the recommendations remain valid. I can’t stress enough how important it is to consider using one or both of these options strategies to help protect gains in your winners.

Of course, these strategies aren’t relevant for all stocks recommended in the three TES Portfolios. Therefore, we need other lines of defense.

Be sure to review my recommended stop orders on outstanding positions. After the close of trading today, I’ll update some of these stops to protect our downside and lock in gains on key holdings. I update the Portfolios at least once per week (or more frequently when market conditions warrant); be sure to check back often to ensure that you don’t miss any changes.

Of course, it’s worth noting that some of our biggest winners are stocks included in the uranium and biofuels field bets. (You can find a link to both field bets in the Gushers Portfolio.) I don’t traditionally recommend stops on these picks because they’re designed as long-term plays on my favorite growth themes.

With respect to the biofuels field bet, I recommended several options hedges for plays in this table last week. These stocks are actually holding up reasonably well despite the global pullback. I recommend you use the options outlined last week to hedge these plays.

If you aren’t comfortable trading options but have big gains in these recommendations, I suggest taking partial profits in the following stocks: Mosaic (NYSE: MOS), Potash Corp (NYSE: POT), Syngenta (NYSE: SYT) and Wildcatter Portfolio holding Bunge (NYSE: BG).

I recommend selling out of roughly a third of your holding in each of these stocks. That means if you currently have $12,000 in each stock, sell about $4,000 worth of stock.

My outlook for biofuels and these names isn’t changed, and there’s nothing new fundamentally on any of these stocks. But with the big gains witnessed since September in these recommendations, many long-time subscribers I’ve spoken to now have huge positions in all my biofuels plays. In other words, simply because of the appreciation in these stocks over the past few months, these names have gone from relatively small holdings to major portfolio positions. Selling a one-third position will allow you to book some gains and reduce your weighting in the group to a less-exposed level.

If you’re a new subscriber that either hasn’t jumped into these names or only recently bought the stocks, don’t despair. Remember the core concept of my field bet is to cast a wide net and buy small stakes in a list of relatively aggressive stocks. Instead of just buying one or two high-risk biofuels plays, I recommend placing a smaller amount in five to 10 such companies.

The key is to keep your position sizes small. If you’re not yet in these names, I recommend taking a small position now and looking to add to that position on a further decline of 10 to 15 percent in my recommended field bet names. I can’t stress how important it is to keep your plays small in these field-bet plays.

The same conditions apply to my recommended uranium field bet. Subscribers who bought these uranium plays on my original recommendation last July are now up well more than 100 percent on average. That’s despite the recent sharp pullback in the group.

Once again, I see absolutely nothing to change my outlook for nuclear power. The fact is that, even if the global economy slows, building plans for new nuclear plants are likely to proceed. These are multiyear projects.

Moreover, uranium is a unique commodity; there’s no other commodity on earth with a tighter supply/demand balance. Uranium mine output is still far too low to meet demand: Some 110 million pounds of uranium are mined annually versus demand of more than 180 million pounds. That’s why there’s been no impact on uranium prices recently. In fact, spot prices soared to $85 per pound late last month, up from the low $70s at the beginning of the year.

But although the uranium story is intact, these stocks are vulnerable to a global selloff just like any other sector. Investors simply took some profits off the table. Despite the undeniable fact that some declines in these uranium field bet components have been sharp lately, most of the stocks are still trading roughly even with where they were a month ago.

I see this scenario as nothing new. Paladin Resources (TSX: PDN), for example, has seen two declines of roughly 35 percent since mid-2005. During that same period, the stock is up sevenfold. This is, in short, a vicious correction within a longer-term uptrend, not the beginning of a collapse.

My advice for the uranium field bet is simple: If you got into these stocks from July to November, you’re probably sitting on some big gains and the field bet is now becoming a huge component of your portfolio. To reduce your weighting, consider selling a third of your position in each of the following names: Uranium Participation Corp (TSX: U), UEX Corp (TSX: UEX), SXR Uranium One (TSX: SXR) and Pitchstone Exploration (TSX V: PXP). This is an effort to reduce your overweight in these stocks, not a comment on any change in their fundamental attractiveness.

Also note I haven’t recommended taking profits in all my recommended plays.

If you’re relatively new to the newsletter and haven’t yet entered these stocks, please remember to only commit a small amount of capital to each pick; this is the whole concept behind the field bet. I recommend taking half of your intended position now and using further dips of 10 to 20 percent as an opportunity to buy more. I’ll be updating this outlook in future issues of the newsletter, but any further selling will mark an outstanding buying opportunity.

For those who jumped in more recently, I again caution that your position size in each recommended play should be relatively small. But I still believe that all of the recommended stocks are extraordinarily well placed to benefit from the continued rally in uranium prices; I see the current pullback as only temporary.

These stocks should all see fresh new highs later this year. The recent selloff in the group looks no different than several prior pullbacks witnessed during the past two to three years.

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