Flash Alert: Portfolio News Update

There have been some important developments for stocks and themes recommended in The Energy Strategist Portfolios during the past week. It’s high time for an update. Here’s a rundown:

General Maritime (NYSE: GMR)

I outlined my take on the General Maritime special dividend in the February 23 flash alert Dividends, Earnings And Deals; I won’t reiterate those arguments here because my basic outlook is unchanged. However, there’s been some confusion over the recent action in the stock.

As I outlined before, the stock was expected to drop by the total amount of the dividend on its ex-dividend date. The ex-dividend date is the final date on which shareholders who own the stock can receive that dividend.

In this case, the ex-dividend date was last Friday, March 23. If you owned the stock on Friday, you got the dividend; however, if you bought it Monday, you won’t receive that payment. The stock “dropped” by the full $15.62 to reflect that situation.

Most quotation services adjust the price to reflect that fact; however, not all services adjust immediately. Some financial Web sites and even brokerage sites showed General Maritime opening $15.62 lower on Monday. In all cases that I’ve found, this has since been fixed.

For the record, General Maritime closed Friday at $43.35; netting out the dividend, that’s $27.73. With the stock now trading closer to $28.50, it’s actually up in the past few days.

Bottom line: General Maritime still rates a buy here given its increasingly shareholder-friendly dividend and buyback policies.

Platinum Group Metals (TSX: PTM)

I first recommended this Gushers Portfolio holding in the Dec. 6, 2006, issue of TES, Looking For Some Upside. Although it may seem unusual to be recommending a platinum metals stock in an energy newsletter, these themes are intimately related; it’s all a matter of diesel.

Diesel produces a good deal of pollution. Pollutants emitted from diesel engines include sulphur dioxide, nitrous oxides and particulate matter (basically, soot).

Particulate matter is particularly troubling for diesel cars. In China, burning diesel fuel is one of the main culprits for its major urban pollution problem. The Chinese government has expressed interest in controlling the problem because it’s impacting growth potential.

Most governments are tightening environmental regulations for diesel fuel. This includes producing fuel with ultra-low-sulphur content and imposing limits and regulations covering emissions from diesel-powered vehicles. This isn’t just a developed market story; China and India are also cracking down on diesel pollution.

One of the offshoots of this environmental regulation is that diesel-powered cars and trucks will need to be fitted with special filters that cut down on emissions of these pollutants. The key component of diesel filters: platinum.

Because diesel vehicles get better mileage than gasoline equivalents, diesel is growing quickly as a fuel source worldwide. It’s even starting to make inroads into the US market, where diesel has a bad reputation for historical reasons. (If you’re like me, you probably remember some of those soot-belching, unreliable early diesel cars imported into the US.) But technology has moved on, and diesel is once again becoming a viable, reasonable solution.

At any rate, Platinum Group Metals (PGM) is a small mining/exploration firm in South Africa with a major mine development project located adjacent to Anglo Platinum’s Bushveld mine. Anglo has even partnered with PGM on this project. Because Anglo Platinum is the 800-pound gorilla of the platinum market, its participation is a major endorsement.

Platinum prices have gradually moved higher since I recommended PGM. PGM has also been moving ahead with its pre-feasibility studies on the mine; the company’s resource estimates have been gradually rising. This has helped push the stock up nearly 50 percent from where I first recommended it.

I still like the PGM story, and I can see significant additional upside here. Nonetheless, 50 percent is a big gain in a short period of time and it’s time to take a little cash off the table. I recommend you sell half your position in Platinum Group Metals at a price of CD3 or higher. Make sure to use a limit order because this stock can be thinly traded.

American Commercial Lines (NSDQ: ACLI)

American Commercial Lines operates a fleet of barges that are used to transport goods such as coal, grain and even liquid products around US inland waterways. I first recommended this stock in the July 12, 2006, issue of TES, Beyond Oil And Gas.

Earlier this week, American Commercial touched my recommended stop at $30.50, selling us out of the name with a gain of about 10.5 percent. Although that gain isn’t bad, we had a much bigger gain in the stock just a few weeks ago.

Subscribers who took my recent advice to hedge American Commercial with put options or take some cash off the table have gains significantly higher than that. The stock has been rated a hold since the beginning of 2007.

At any rate, I still find the American Commercial story compelling. The stock is a play on the booming markets for grains of all types and ethanol. All these goods need to be transported around the US; with rail capacity not up to the task, barges are grabbing a serious chunk of the business.

The stock has declined recently for a few major reasons. First, there’s a knee-jerk tendency to sell all the transports when the economy of slowing. In this company’s case, that’s completely ridiculous because grain demand has little to do with US economic growth and everything to do with rapidly rising Chinese demand and US government ethanol mandates.

Second, the spot rates charged for hauling grain up and down the Mississippi River softened a touch in February. The railroads also reported a slight decline in grain volumes year-to-date. This is probably because weather-related issues.

February was an unusually cold month across most of the Midwest where grains are sources; farmers simply delayed shipments. I suspect we’ll see those figures rebound this month because the weather has been, by and large, much better.

Also, specific to the barge industry, a big chunk of the Illinois River froze solid for about three weeks in February. The bitter cold weather made it impossible to clear that ice; barges didn’t move up and down this crucial waterway during this time. So the weather issue was exacerbated for the barge firms.

I suspect we’ll see the improved weather filter through into improved barge volumes and pricing. With American Commercial down so sharply, it’s already pricing in a ton of bad news for its first quarter numbers.

I’m not willing to catch a falling knife here and recommend jumping back in; stay out of American Commercial Lines for now. However, I will be looking for confirmation in the coming weeks that this has been a weather-only problem. If that turns out to be the case, I may well recommend jumping back in.

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