Canadian National Railways: Strong Buy

Canadian National Railways recent drop in price has increased its position in our portfolio and the stock is now a strong buy. The railway (TSX: CNR, NYSE: CNI) is arguably the top railroad operator in North America with an almost impossible to replicate 20,000 miles of rail track stretching from North to South and East to West across the continent. The business is well-diversified, transporting a broad range of goods which mitigates the risk of a cyclical decline in any particular sector.

The company ticks all the boxes on our Dividend Champion checklist including a sound balance sheet, abundant free cash flow, excellent dividend payment track record, large dividend cover and good growth prospects. The company is our number one rated Dividend Champion stock in terms of quality.

We included the stock at a fairly low weighting of 2.5% in the initial Dividend Champion portfolio issued in early May 2015 with the intention to increase the holding in the case of price weakness. The current price of $60.94 reflects a decline of 19% from the February peak and a 2015 dividend yield of 1.7%. In addition, the company recently declared a dividend of CAD0.3125 for which investors will qualify until it goes ex dividend on 5 June.

The most recent results again reflected the strength of the franchise with an increase in profits of 30% compared to the same quarter a year ago. The CEO mentioned that the business was on track to increase profits by more than 10% in the current year and the dividend was increased by 25% compared to the same quarter one year ago. Investors should also note that the dividend payout ratio is less than 30% and that the company intends to gradually increase the dividend payout ratio over time. Reuter consensus estimates indicate that the dividend could grow by 20% per year until 2018.CNI graph

For dividend investors, the dividend yield on the stock may seem to be relatively low but to my mind compares well with the yields available on cash or government bonds, especially when the attractive dividend growth profile is taken into account.

The Dividend Champion portfolio increased its weight in Canada National Rail this morning from 2.5% to 4.0% with a trading price of CAD74.50/USD61.00.

Happy investing

Deon Vernooy

Stock Talk

Geoffrey Deering

Geoffrey Deering

It would appear that the dividend is around the Canadian inflation rate. So in the unlikely event that the stock doubles, it might just be worth considering. How is this a ‘Dividend Champion’?

Ari Charney

Ari Charney

Hi Geoff,

That might be true if the payout remained static. But Canadian National Railway has grown its dividend by 15.6% annually over the past five years, which is certainly strong enough to merit Dividend Champion status.

Best regards,
Ari

Linda C

Linda C

Morning,

Is this a good buy for excellent short term growth as well?

Ari Charney

Ari Charney

Hi Linda,

Canadian National Railway’s earnings per share have grown by an average of 14.5% annually over the past five years. And analysts currently forecast growth in adjusted earnings per share of 14% for full-year 2015 and 11% in 2016.

That strong growth has also translated into share-price appreciation. The stock has returned 17.6% annually in U.S. dollar terms over the trailing five-year period.

Best regards,
Ari

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