Flash Alert: Friday’s the Day

This Friday, oil services giant Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) reports its third quarter earnings. Given Schlumberger’s global reach and management’s tendency to offer long, detailed conference calls, this is a key report to watch.

I don’t currently recommend Schlumberger in the TES Portfolios; we took some profits off the table in the stock a few weeks ago. (See the July 20, 2007, flash alert, Schlumberger and Hedges.)

However, this has been one of my favorites during the past few years and has been a big winner for us. It remains bar none the best-positioned oil services name. My only concern with Schlumberger right now is that it’s seen an impressive run this year and is already pricing in a lot of good news.

There’s also the potential for weaker-than-expected results in North American operations to pressure the stock in the short term. If that happens, we’ll have an excellent entry point on any dip; for now, however, I recommend standing aside. I’ll have more to say about Schlumberger after the call.

In addition to the Schlumberger call, there have also been some other important tidbits of news released since my last two flash alerts on Oct. 5, Buying the Dip, and Oct. 10, That Time of Year, Again. Here’s a rundown:

W-H Energy Services (NYSE: WHQ)–Services firm W-H warned last week on its third quarter earnings; the company expects earnings in the range of $1.06 to $1.10, down from management’s previous estimates for $1.23 to $1.28.

W-H isn’t a recommended TES Portfolio holding, but the report does offer an early take on the state of the energy industry.

Specifically, W-H cited weakness in its coiled tubing business for the majority of the weakness. Coiled tubing is a sort of flexible steel pipe that’s used to perform a variety of services on wells that have already been drilled. The list includes installing equipment used to filter out sand, removing debris from the well and removing scale buildup that affects production from older wells.

Most of W-H’s business is in the US and Gulf of Mexico. And almost all of the company’s coiled tubing business is in the US.

W-H had hinted that pricing power in coiled tubing may start to deteriorate because of an oversupply of equipment in the industry. That appears to be happening; this is another sign of a weakening North American drilling and services market in general.

The market apparently had expected W-H to remain resilient in the face of North American weakness because its services apply mainly to more technologically advanced wells. This is another reason to steer clear of any North American-leveraged names unless they’re trading at highly attractive valuations. I continue to like Nabors Industries (NYSE: NBR) but would avoid companies like Halliburton, Patterson-UTI and BJ Services.

Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU)–Wildcatters Portfolio holding Peabody Energy announced the long-awaited and anticipated spinoff of its Appalachian operations into a new company to be called Patriot Coal. Existing Peabody shareholders will receive one share of Patriot for every 10 shares of Peabody owned; Patriot will trade under the symbol PCX once the spinoff occurs on Oct. 31.

As I’ve noted before, I see this as a positive for Peabody because it makes the company a purer play on the fast-growing Powder River Basin (PRB) and Australian coal operations. Peabody Energy rates a buy under 55; I recommend holding onto the shares you receive in Patriot Coal after the spinoff is completed.  

US Geothermal (TSX: GTH, OTC: UGTH)–US Geothermal is an alternative field bet play now up 187 percent since my recommendation in April. The stock soared recently after announcing that it’s begun trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) rather than the Toronto Venture Exchange.

The TSX has stricter listing requirements than the Venture Exchange, so this is a vote of confidence. With the stock soaring, however, I’m now cutting US Geothermal to a hold.

Metabolix (NSDQ: MBLX)–I just added Metabolix to the biofuels field bet in the Sept. 19 issue, Down on the Farm. The company announced the results of an independent study showing that its natural, biodegradable plastics result in major greenhouse gas and pollution emissions reductions compared to the manufacture of conventional plastics.

The stock posted its biggest ever one-day gain. Metabolix remains a buy.

FMC Technologies (NYSE: FTI)–Subsea equipment maker FMC Technologies reported a big $200 million contract with Petrobras. The stock is now up 125 percent since my Jan. 5 recommendation. FMC remains attractive; however, the scale of the recent run-up means that there’s little room left for the company to beat analysts’ lofty expectations.

If you haven’t already done so, book half your profits in FMC Technologies to lock in gains; hold the rest for now. I’m also raising my recommended stop to lock in incremental gains.  

Nuclear field bet–Spot uranium prices ticked higher this week for the first time since the June top, and the stocks are beginning a seasonal run higher. The temporary, highly misunderstood reasons for the market’s correction this summer are now dissipating, and it’s time to start rebuilding positions in my favorite uranium plays. See the July 18 issue, Yellow Fever, for details.

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