Spring Cleaning Claims NuStars, Genesis, SemGroup

Change is the only constant, but a company striking out in a new direction should give investors pause, especially if it’s buying its way in. Was the move prompted by deteriorating business conditions? How badly could management screw up on unfamiliar terrain? Will the expected future returns justify the cost of an acquisition?

All of these questions are very relevant to Tuesday’s announcement that NuStar Energy (NS) will spend nearly $1.5 billion to acquire a crude gathering system in the Permian Basin. ““We expect that the purchase price, when coupled with modest future growth capex to build out the system, will result in a high single digit multiple as volumes ramp over time,” the partnership noted in the press release.

Translation: the Navigator Energy Services assets in question are probably changing hands at a mid- to high teens current EBITDA multiple, befitting its location in the “core of the core” of the Midland Basin section of the Permian.

The drilling revival underway in this region is hardly a secret, and the private equity fund acting as the seller has undoubtedly not been taken advantage of by a master limited partnership thirsty for growth and spending largely other people’s money.

In fact, NuStar is clearly paying a higher multiple than its own equity currently enjoys, leading Moody’s to warn that the deal would likely result in rising debt leverage and diminished distribution coverage. The credit agency placed NuStar’s rating on review or a possible downgrade.

Incentive distribution rights owed to the general partner NuStar GP Holdings (NSH) are likely to further dilute the long-term return on this transaction, even though NSH has agreed to a subsidy of up to $22 million in forfeited incentives from the newly issued equity over the next three years.

I worry that the principal motivation for the deal was the dim outlook for NuStar’s crude storage assets as a result of the development slowdown in the Eagle Ford, the only shale play where it has operated until now.

I’m recommending the sale of any NS and NSH stakes today.  In a further bit of portfolio spring cleaning, SemGroup (SEMG) will also be exiting stage left as an underperformer reliant on storage revenue at a time of generally declining crude inventories. While the NuStar recommendations resulted only on modest losses over the last two years, the same can’t be said of the NuStar position, which has produced a loss of more than 40% since we mistimed our entry in June 2014 at triple-digit oil prices.

In contrast, Genesis Energy (GEL) has returned more than 200% including distributions since it was added to the portfolio in 2009. But several of its operating niches have been squeezed hard and in general Genesis now lacks the strategic assets, pricing power or compelling value proposition I prefer to see in the portfolio.

Effective today, we’re rating NS, NSH, SEMG and GEL as Sells.

 

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