MICROS’ Massive Moat

To a certain extent, all investors are students of Warren Buffett. Even if your investing style has little to do with Buffett’s approach to stock selection, you’re likely still aware of the types of securities he favors and his rationale for doing so. And that awareness can sometimes manifest itself as a worthwhile form of skepticism.

For instance, I first learned about MICROS Systems (NSDQ: MCRS), which specializes in enterprise software and hardware for the hospitality and retail industries, when looking for the most commonly held stocks among top-performing mid-cap funds. I had created a screen that culled Morningstar’s database for mid-cap funds that beat the market over both short- and long-term periods, without concern for any criteria other than investment performance and management tenure.

I then used Morningstar’s Fund X-Ray to see if there was any overlap among the portfolios of the nine best funds. If multiple funds held the same stock, then that name would presumably be worth researching further. The clear winner was MICROS: The $3.6 billion company is held in seven out of nine portfolios. Nevertheless, I initially felt lukewarm about MICROS because of a nagging suspicion inspired by Buffett’s famous aversion to tech stocks. Buffett typically avoids stocks that operate in industries that are constantly evolving because it’s difficult to project how their business models might change over the long term. In the case of MICROS, I lacked confidence that the company could maintain their moat against competition from mobile devices.

However, upon closer examination, I learned MICROS boasts sufficient market share, particularly among restaurants and hotels, to fend off competitors in this highly fragmented industry for at least another five to 10 years.

For instance, management notes that there are about 6.5 million restaurants worldwide, and that 2 million have invested in a sophisticated software system to manage everything from customer orders to inventory. Of that subset, they estimate that MICROS has a 15 percent to 18 percent market share globally, while it’s an even more dominant 35 percent in the US for table-service restaurants and 25 percent for quick service.

And among chain hotels, the company commands a market share of around 30 percent worldwide. MICROS’ biggest growth opportunity is in retail, where its share of the market is just 3 percent in North America and Europe.

MICROS’ systems can be integrated across the business, so hotels might use their systems for an online reservation platform as well as for managing back-office functions, while retailers use their systems for everything from point-of-sale transactions to analyzing sales productivity. By contrast, most of its competitors offer software that covers just one or two facets of running a particular business.

In MICROS’ fiscal second quarter (ended Dec. 31), hotels accounted for 38 percent of revenue, restaurants came in at 37 percent, and retail was 25 percent. Services, such as installation, maintenance and hosting, accounted for the vast majority of revenue (68 percent), hardware was 21 percent, and software 11 percent.

Revenue is also well diversified geographically, with 38 percent derived from sales in the US and Canada, while 62 percent was from international operations. However, the company does have significant exposure to the flagging eurozone, so that could pose a headwind.

MICROS has 10 to 20 significant competitors worldwide across its various niches (not including proprietary systems developed for internal use by hotels, etc.), but management believes the extent of its network, breadth of products, and ability to provide customized solutions give it a competitive edge over its peers. Additionally, it spends about 5 percent of annual revenue on research and development.

Over the past five years, revenue has risen more than 8 percent annually, while earnings have grown almost 17 percent annually. MICROS’ high margins translate into prodigious free cash flow—roughly $155 million in its most recent fiscal year, about 14 percent of sales. At yearend, MICROS had $632 million in cash on its balance sheet and no long-term debt.

Although earnings are forecast to climb 9.5 percent in fiscal 2013 and 13.2 percent the following year, the stock is down about 23 percent from its 52-week high. So aggressive investors have a rare opportunity to build a position in this mid-cap growth stock.

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