MLPs That Operate ‘Virtual Pipelines’

Similar to the situation faced by Canadian crude oil producers and shippers, US energy companies and midstream master limited partnerships (MLP) are increasingly turning to rail to transport landlocked crude from prolific US shale plays to coastal refineries. So even as new technology helps energy producers exploit resources that were previously too difficult or expensive to tap, they’re resorting to old means of transportation to ensure their products get to key markets.

Crude by rail is largely a complement to existing pipeline infrastructure, and while it does provide cost efficiency as well as some flexibility in terms of selecting end markets, it will presumably be supplanted by pipelines as midstream infrastructure eventually catches up with output. But in the meantime, even refiners are investing in railcars to have access to the Bakken’s relatively cheap light, sweet crude.

Analysts with Raymond James recently highlighted 21 publicly traded companies that stand to benefit from the crude-by-rail trend, including four MLPs. This activity had already been going on for much of last year, but it really took off during the fourth quarter.

The analysts focused on MLPs with smaller market caps, since the crude-by-rail trend would have a greater effect on their operations. However, a closer look at the four MLPs specified by these analysts shows that just two experienced sizable jumps in fourth-quarter distributable cash flow (DCF) from a year ago along with meaningful increases in their quarterly distributions—Global Partners LP and Tesoro Logistics LP:

Genesis Energy LP (NYSE: GEL): $3.7 billion market cap; $50.5 million in fourth-quarter DCF, up 35 percent year over year; $0.485 fourth-quarter payout, up 2.6 percent sequentially and 10 percent from a year ago.

Global Partners LP (NYSE: GLP): $960 million market cap; $32.1 million in fourth-quarter DCF, up 95 year over year; $0.57 fourth-quarter payout, up 7 percent sequentially and 14 percent from a year ago.

Inergy LP (NYSE: NRGY): $2.85 billion market cap; $38.9 million in fourth-quarter DCF, down 46 percent from a year ago; $0.29 fourth-quarter payout, unchanged sequentially, but down 59 percent from a year ago.

Tesoro Logistics LP (NYSE: TLLP): $2.4 billion market cap; $19.1M in fourth-quarter DCF, up 102 percent year over year; $0.4725 fourth-quarter payout, up 4 percent sequentially and 30 percent from a year ago.

In this article, we’ll focus on the smaller of the two MLPs that appear to have the greatest leverage so far to the crude-by-rail trend: Global Partners LP.

In addition to a multi-brand portfolio of about 1,000 owned or supplied gas stations, Global Partners is heavily involved in the storage and transportation of energy commodities. In fact, it’s a leader in the logistics of transporting crude oil and other energy commodities from the Bakken via rail, which it first began doing in October 2011. The company moves about 120,000 barrels per day from the Bakken to coastal markets, which accounts for just over 16 percent of North Dakota’s daily production.

Its operations include one of the largest terminal networks in the Northeast, with 10.3 million barrels of capacity, including a terminal in Albany, N.Y., that has a capacity of 160,000 barrels per day of crude and ethanol. It also owns a 60 percent interest in two hubs in North Dakota that handle gathering, storage, and transportation, with a combined capacity of 160,000 barrels per day of crude.

Management partially attributed the MLP’s outstanding fourth-quarter performance to its “virtual pipeline” that connects the Bakken via a single-line haul rail operated by Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd (NYSE: CP). The number of unit trains received at the Albany terminal rose to 87 in the fourth quarter, from 15 a year ago, and management forecasts a further increase to 140 in the first quarter. For the sake of context, a 120-car unit train can transport almost 86,000 barrels of crude.

In the first quarter, Global Partners pursued a number of deals to take advantage of its crude-by-rail logistics expertise. The MLP extended its virtual pipeline to the West Coast by acquiring a transloading facility with 200,000 barrels of storage capacity and a deepwater marine terminal in Portland, Ore., from Cascade Kelly Holdings LLC in a $95 million deal. The West Coast facility is linked to Global Partners’ Bakken assets by the Genesee & Wyoming short line, which is serviced by BNSF Railway.

Global Partners also inked a deal with Tesoro Logistics that connects one of its transload facilities in the Bakken with Tesoro’s High Plains Pipeline System. Crude oil is expected to start flowing to Global Partners’ 100,000-barrel-capacity crude oil storage tank in the third quarter.

Finally, Global Partners signed a five-year transportation and logistics contract with Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) to deliver crude from the Bakken to Phillips’ Bayway, N.J., refinery. The contract’s take-or-pay commitment covers 91 million barrels of crude during that period, or about 50,000 barrels per day.

Global Partners’ management forecasts full-year 2013 EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) to rise to $175 million to $190 million, from $135.8 million in 2012.

Although units of Global Partners are down about 8.8 percent from their 52-week high, they still trade well above our buy target of 30.

Stock Talk

Kent Hopkins

Kent Hopkins

I have been hearing that railway transportation will be the preferred mode of transportation over the pipelines. How will that affect my MLP holdings in midstream pipelines? Are we going to be stuck with MLP’s losing money on the pipelines? Why Mr. Conrad not said anything about this threat? Is this the time to sell out my positions? Your reply would be appreciated.
Kent Hopkins

Guest One

Service

Dear Mr. Hopkins,

I’ve attempted to address some of your questions in my latest article here:

http://www.mlpprofits.com/mlp-profits/articles/17291/mlps-the-economics-of-crude-by-rail

Best regards,
Ari Charney

Kent Hopkins

Kent Hopkins

Dear Mr. Charney,
I never thought my reply would be answered.
Thanks Millions!

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