LNG Plus MLPs: a Match With Long-Term Benefits

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is a hot commodity around the world and one of the hottest growth trends in the energy sector.

Natural gas is cheaper than oil and much less polluting than coal, and this has led many governments to endorse it as a bridge between fossil fuels and renewables, one that can help mitigate the risks of climate change in additional to producing savings for consumers.

The problem is that many of the new natural gas fields developed recently are located a long way from the sources of growing demand in Asia and elsewhere in the developing world. And natural gas is a tricky commodity to transport, requiring costly infrastructure to compress and liquefy it for loading onto specialized tankers and more infrastructure to process it back into combustible gas at the other end of the shipping route.

This infrastructure is costly but getting built out all the same as companies seek to profitably link the gas producers with far-off consumers. Master limited partnerships will play a big part in supplying capital for such ventures and then profiting from their operation.

Although US natural gas prices crashed to $2 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last year as technologies like horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing extracted natural gas from shale formations, prices have subsequently doubled as the price slump curbed output and investment.

But liquefied natural gas is selling for up to $16 per MMBtu in Asian markets, so there is still plenty of profit in exporting US natural gas across the Pacific; only the necessary infrastructure is lacking. The same holds true for other recent gas finds in Canada, Australia and eastern Africa. 

That should change over the next few years as companies build LNG export facilities like the Sabine Pass terminal under construction by Cheniere Energy (AMEX: LNG) on the Gulf of Mexico at the Louisiana/Texas border.

Cheniere has already lined up customers for long-term supply contracts that will come into force once Sabine Pass goes online in 2016. And it has created a master limited partnership, Cheniere Energy Partners (AMEX: CQP), to operate the LNG terminal and offer investors a direct play on that business.

Cheniere Energy retains a 56.4 percent stake in Cheniere Energy Partners, and Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX), an investment firm, holds 30 percent. The other 13.6 percent is owned by the public. 

Cheniere Energy Partners plans a $1.70 distribution to unit holders this year, good for an annual yield of 6.2 percent at the current price. Eventually, the distributions will be supported by 20-year offtake contracts generating $2.3 billion per year from the first four trains (LNG processing units) to be built, with trains 3 and 4 due to come online by 2017. Plans for trains 5 and 6 are now in the permitting stage.  

Investors averse to risk should be cautious about buying large positions in Cheniere Energy and Cheniere Energy Partners as both entities are still investing hundreds of millions of borrowed money into capital projects that will take years to pay off.

Still, Cheniere is currently the only company authorized by the US Department of Energy (DOE)  to build a LNG export facility and the Sabine Pass terminal is a hugely valuable asset, one that could eventually turn Cheniere Energy into a takeover target.

In queue behind Cheniere are at least 19 utilities and oil companies with their own permit applications to build LNG facilities here in the US, but approvals for those could take years if they come at all.

The huge demand for LNG is an opportunity for shippers with enough LNG tankers, because these specialized vessels are in relatively short supply at a time when the shipping industry is plagued by a glut of other cargo ships.

Lease rates for LNG tankers have held up much better than for other large ships, and while they’ve dropped a little over the last six months they are finally starting to increase again thanks to continuing growth in Asia and elsewhere.

Even recession-mired Europe has economic incentives to diversify its natural gas supply away from Russia, while Japan is still deciding whether or not it will bring any nuclear power plants back online post Fukushima and will remain a major LNG customer even if it takes that risk.

Unlike oil tankers and container ships, which can sit idle for months at a time, every LNG tanker is booked solid many years in advance, and that includes new tankers currently being delivered to Golar LNG (NSDQ: GLNG) and Teekay (NYSE:TK).

Their affiliated master limited partnerships, Golar LNG Partners (Nasdaq: GMLP) and Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) will benefit as well, and TPG has already delivered big for MLP Profits subscribers.

Unlike TGP, whose long-term contracts somewhat insulate it from the vagaries of the spot LNG shipping market, GLNG has had a rougher go of it over the last six months, dropping more than 20 percent while TGP gained 12 percent. But GLNG’s management remains enthusiastic about the longer-term outlook.

Expect more master limited partnerships focused on LNG to come on line in the near future, given the industry’s big financing needs and the popularity of solid yields. We’ll keep you posted.

 

 

Stock Talk

Add New Comments

You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk OR create an account