Big Oil, Major Headaches

In this issue:

 It was another disappointing quarter for the biggest oil companies, as output sagged and debt swelled. We analyze the causes of the malaise and suggest a way forward, while taking the opportunity to unload two European giants after a sharp relief rally.

Many MLPs have proven to be fantastic investments, including one that has produced a better than sixfold return since we bought it. We’re raising the price target on two MLP holdings and adding another to capitalize on the shale drilling boom and the coming wave of gas exports.

Struggling refiners recently caught a break when the Environmental Protection Agency hinted it would relax the ethanol mandate. We have the details.

Based on a recent survey of Energy Strategist readers, we are making some changes in the presentation format. Many readers had requested a summary of top news and recommendations changes at the top, and starting with this issue we’re accommodating. We hope they make our research more accessible and useful.


Portfolio Action Summary


  • Selling Total (NYSE: TOT) from the Conservative Portfolio


  • Selling Eni (NYSE: E) from the Conservative Portfolio


  • Adding EQT Midstream (NYSE: EQM) to the Conservative Portfolio; buy below $51


  • Raising the buy below target on Conservative Portfolio holding Sunoco Logistics Partners (NYSE: SXL) to $67


  • Raising the buy below target on Conservative Portfolio holding Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) to $46


Commodity Update


After the large blowout in 2012 and subsequent collapse this year, the Brent-WTI differential has yet to recover strength. Brent crude for September delivery is $109.03 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is $106.15/bbl for a differential of $3.09/bbl. Natural gas is trading at $3.31/MMBtu, versus $2.77/MMBtu one year ago.


In Other News


  • Integrated oil companies reported broadly disappointing earnings, while domestic shale producers, notably EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG) delivered strong results


  • The refining sector got a bit of good news when the EPA pared back ethanol mandates that had been criticized as being nearly impossible to meet. I will examine this development in more detail below


  • While the Keystone XL pipeline’s future is still very much up in the air, TransCanada is hedging its bets by announcing a new 1.1 million bpd pipeline that would connect the oil sands to Canada’s East Coast


  • Electric carmaker Tesla Motors surprised Wall Street with revenue and profit that greatly exceeded expectations. The share price of the company is up 335 percent year-to-date



  • Tokyo Electric Power Company (OTC: TKECF) has acknowledged that its crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant is leaking radioactive water into the Pacific Ocean.


  • The Obama Administration has approved the third permit for a natural gas export facility. This facility is backed by UK-based BG Group (NYSE: BG) and Houston-based Southern Union, a joint venture between Energy Transfer Equity LP (NYSE: ETE) and Energy Transfer Partners LP (NYSE: ETP).



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