Australia’s Central Bank Takes Cautious Tone Toward Further Easing

The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) August meeting, in which it decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to an all-time low of 2.5 percent, were finally published this week and offer some insight into the central bank’s future actions.

Naturally, parsing the language of a central bank’s communications regarding monetary policy is a favorite pastime of economists and financial media alike. In particular, central bank watchers have noted the past year’s evolution of RBA Governor Glenn Stevens’ phrasing from “ample scope to ease policy further” to just “scope” with no qualifier, and in more recent months to “some scope.”

In the RBA’s August statement regarding monetary policy, that wording had been further moderated to convey the bank’s intent to lower rates “as needed,” based on its assessment of economic data. This makes sense given that this latest rate cut was the eighth cut in the central bank’s current easing cycle, which began back in November 2011 when the cash rate was at 4.75 percent.

In the RBA’s announcement earlier this month regarding its decision to cut rates again, the central bank’s policymakers were keen to avoid contributing to the notion that yet another rate cut is a foregone conclusion. The minutes note that members of the Reserve Bank Board agreed “that the Bank should neither close off the possibility of reducing rates further, nor signal an imminent intention to reduce rates further.”

Regardless of the RBA’s cautious pronouncements, most economists and traders expect another 25-basis-point rate cut by the end of the year. Indeed, Westpac Chief Economist Bill Evans is predicting another rate cut in November followed by a subsequent rate cut in early 2014.

One of the goals of the RBA’s monetary policy has been to remove support for the Australian dollar, which has remained stubbornly high relative to other currencies, and therefore posed a major challenge to the country’s economy. But it wasn’t until early May, when US Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke signaled that the Fed was considering how to curtail its extraordinary stimulus, that the Aussie began to sell off in earnest.

Since then, the currency has been on a protracted decline, dropping below parity with the US dollar and falling as low as USD0.89 earlier this month. That’s given the Aussie the dubious distinction of being the worst-performing currency in the Group of 10 so far this year.

Interestingly, although the Aussie is down about 14.8 percent, near USD0.90, from its high of USD1.06 back in early January, the RBA still considers the exchange rate high by historical standards.

The currency’s decline has been further exacerbated by recent weakness among its regional peers in developing Asia. The Aussie’s relative liquidity means that many traders treat it as a proxy for some of the less-liquid currencies in the region.

Of course, as we’ve noted previously, these are all developments that should ultimately bode well for the Australian economy. But while a lower cash rate translated almost immediately into lower mortgage rates, a lower exchange rate will take longer to flow through to the economy. And that’s what will likely keep the RBA on an easy-money trajectory.

The Roundup

Here’s when AE Portfolio Holdings will report their next sets of financial and operating numbers. Some have “confirmed” dates, while for others we’ve provided an “estimate.”

For most, this will cover the full fiscal year ending June 30, 2013. We’ve noted for others that report on a different schedule the period to which the announcement pertains.

Conservative Holdings

  • Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Fund (NYSE: FAX)–N/A (fund, reports holdings on a quarterly basis)
  • AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGK, OTC: AGLNF, ADR: AGLNY)–Aug. 28, 2013 (confirmed)
  • APA Group (ASX: APA, OTC: APAJF)–Aug. 21, 2013 (confirmed)
  • Australand Property Group Ltd (ASX: ALZ, OTC: AUAOF)–Aug. 15 Down Under Digest
  • Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ, OTC: ANEWF, ADR: ANZBY)–Oct. 29, 2013 (confirmed)
  • Cardno Ltd (ASX: CDD, OTC: COLDF)–Aug. 20, 2013 (confirmed)
  • CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL, OTC: CMXHF, ADR: CMXHY)–Aug. 14, 2013 (confirmed)
  • Envestra Ltd (ASX: ENV, OTC: EVSRF)–Aug. 22, 2013 (estimate)
  • GPT Group (ASX: GPT, OTC: GPTGF)–Aug. 12, 2013 (2013 H1, confirmed)
  • M2 Telecommunications Group Ltd (ASX: MTU, OTC: MTCZF)–Aug. 26, 2013 (estimate)
  • Ramsay Health Care Ltd (ASX: RHC, OTC: RMSUF)–Aug. 29, 2013 (estimate)
  • SMS Management & Technology Ltd (ASX: SMX, OTC: SMSUF)–Aug. 15, 2013 (estimate)
  • Telstra Corp Ltd (ASX: TLS, OTC: TTRAF, ADR: TLSYY)–Aug. 7, 2013 (confirmed)
  • Transurban Group (ASX: TCL, OTC: TRAUF)–Aug. 1, 2013 (confirmed)
  • Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES, OTC: WFAFF, ADR: WFAFY)–Aug. 15, 2013 (confirmed)

Aggressive Holdings

  • Amalgamated Holdings Ltd (ASX: AHD, OTC: None)–Aug. 23, 2013 (estimate)
  • Ausdrill Ltd (ASX: ASL, OTC: AUSDF)–Aug. 28, 2013 (confirmed)
  • BHP Billiton Ltd (ASX: BHP, NYSE: BHP)–Aug. 20, 2013 (confirmed)
  • GrainCorp Ltd (ASX: GNC, OTC: GRCLF)–Nov.15, 2013 (estimated)
  • Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN, OTC: MALRF)–Aug. 16, 2013 (estimate)
  • Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM, OTC: NCMGF, ADR: NCMGY)–Aug. 12, 2013 (confirmed)
  • Oil Search Ltd (ASX: OSH, OTC: OISHF, ADR: OISHY)–Aug. 20, 2013 (2013 H1, confirmed)
  • Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG, OTC: OGFGF, ADR: OGFGY)–Aug. 22, 2013 (confirmed)
  • Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO, NYSE: RIO)–Aug. 8, 2013 (2013 H1, confirmed)
  • Spark Infrastructure Group (ASX: SKI, OTC: SFDPF)–Aug. 26, 2013 (2013 H1, confirmed)
  • Woodside Petroleum Ltd (ASX: WPL, OTC: WOPEF, ADR: WOPEY)–Aug. 21, 2013 (2013 H1, confirmed)
  • WorleyParsons Ltd (ASX: WOR, OTC: WYGPF, ADR: WYGPY)–Aug. 14, 2013 (confirmed)

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