Let’s Make a Deal

Portfolio Action Summary:
  • MWE added to Growth Portfolio; buy below $77 (see Best Buys)
  • WMB added to Growth Portfolio; buy below $39 (see Best Buys)
  • CMLP (the former NRGM) upgraded to Buy below $25
  • DPM upgraded to Buy below $51

Alliance Holdings GP LP (Nasdaq: AHGP) skidded 5 percent lower in the last month amid a broad coal-industry selloff sparked by proposed Environmental Protection Agency rules limiting carbon dioxide emissions for new power plants.  (Monthly numbers throughout this update are through Sept. 10.) Other coal stocks have fared much worse. The rules, opposed by a variety of business groups, would require the use of expensive carbon capture and storage technology in new coal plant designs, likely making them uncompetitive with natural gas plants. The regulation is expected to be finalized early next year and would then have to survive a court challenge. Looming beyond that are regulations aimed at limiting carbon emissions from existing coal plants, due next summer. In the meantime, coal prices are up slightly over the last month and coal use by utilities up from last year’s nadir owing to the more expensive natural gas. The partnership AHGP manages, Alliance Resources LP (Nasdaq: ARLP) general partner, did blame low coal prices on Sept. 27 in announce the closure of its Pontiki mine in Kentucky as early December, with layoffs likely for the mine’s 142 workers. But the mine was a minor contributor to the Alliance’s sales and profits, and its closure is not expected to have a material effect on the annual targets, according to the partnership. Quarterly earnings are likely to be released the morning of Oct. 25. At the current price, the prospective yield is up to 5.1 percent, and the distributions are likely to continue growing rapidly as the partnership brings online new and more profitable  mines. Buy AHGP below $68.

Boardwalk Pipeline Partners LP (NYSE: BWP) ticked up 2 percent on the month, and now offers a forward annual yield of 7 percent as it pursues customers for the Bluegrass Pipeline that would ship natural gas liquids from Pennsylvania’s Marcellus Shale to new processing and exporting facilities on Louisiana’s Gulf Coast. On Oct. 1, Boardwalk and its Bluegrass Pipeline partner Williams Companies (NYSE: WMB) announced joint venture agreements for a liquefied petroleum gas in Lake Charles, La., not far from a fractionation plant that would separate mixed Marcellus and Utica NGL’s into purity products like propane and butane. The Bluegrass Pipeline still faces opposition from landowners in Kentucky as well as potential competition from a rival project proposed by Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) and MarkWest Energy (NYSE: MWE). MarkWest’s CEO has said the market will only support one pipeline. More details on Bluegrass should be forthcoming after earnings scheduled before the Oct. 28 opening bell. BWP remains a Hold.

Buckeye Partners LP (NYSE: BPL) dropped 6 percent in the last month, with roughly half of the decline coming on Oct. 10 after the operator of fuel pipeline and crude and fuel terminals announced what would ultimately become a 7.5 million unit secondary offering. The funds raised will go toward the $850 million the partnership has just agreed to pay to Hess (NYSE: HES) for 20 fuel terminals in the Northeast, the Southeast and the Caribbean.  The deal, motivated by Hess’s determination to raise cash under pressure from an activist investor, will increase Buckeye’s fuel and crude storage capacity by more than 50 percent. It will also dramatically boost its presence in and around New York harbor, allow it to enter Florida and give it a major crude storage terminal just off the coast of South America. Buckeye expects the acquired assets to generate more than $100 million of annual EBITDA after a one-year integration process. We’re optimistic that this deal will eventually look like a bargain. Earnings are scheduled to be released before the market open on Nov. 1. Buy BPL below $70.

Crestwood Midstream Partners (NYSE: CMLP) is the former Inergy Midstream LP (NYSE: NRGM), trading since Oct. 7 under its acquirer’s name and ticker. The unit price rose 4 percent over the last month, and the yield is now at 7.1 percent. Crestwood is targeting annual distribution growth of 6 to 10 percent in the long run. On Oct. 10, Crestwood announced the acquisition of Arrow Midstream for $750 million, buying 150 miles of crude gathering lines, 160 miles of natural gas gathering pipes and 150 miles of water pipes in the heart of the fast growing  Bakken shale basin. The deal will be accretive to distributions as of next year, and will allow the partnership to process 18 percent of the Bakken’s crude production, according to Crestwood. We believe Crestwood’s management is an improvement on the former Inergy leadership, as does Wells Fargo, which upgraded the units to Outperform on Oct. 11. We are upgrading CMLP to a Buy below $25.

CVR Refining (NYSE: CVRR) The refinery operator was the biggest loser in our portfolios over the last month, dropping 15 percent as low crack spreads and diminished crude differentials scared off investors. But those trends have been in place for quite some time, and nothing that’s happened  in July should jeopardize the revised forecast the Carl Icahn-backed partnership issued at the time for annual distributions of at least $4.10 per unit. Based on the current share price, that puts the 2013 yield at 18 percent. The price should rally so long as CVRR stands by its forecast after the earnings report set for the morning of Nov. 5. Buy CVRR below $28.

DCP Midstream Partners LP (NYSE: DPM) slipped 2 percent in the last month ahead of an earnings release set of Nov. 5 after the closing bell. Strong recent growth got the partnership ranked as the top gas and natural gas liquids processor in the US in an industry survey released last month, and the scheduled opening of a new processing plant near Denver last month should strengthen that position. The partnership continues to aim for distribution growth of 6 to 8 percent this year and 6 to 10 percent in 2014. The units’ 19 percent decline from a record high after a big rally in the spring and summer has pushed the yield back up to 6.1 percent, quite rich given the solid growth prospects. After downgrading it to a Hold closer to the highs we’re back in shopping mode at these levels. Buy DPM below $51.

El Paso Pipeline Partners LP (NYSE: EPB) dipped 2 percent in the last month. Amid the controversy that followed the (pretty thoroughly debunked) Hedgeye claims about parent Kinder Morgan’s (NYSE: KMI) accounting, Kinder Morgan’s chief operating officer bought 18,000 El Paso shares for $757,000 on Sept. 10. He also spent some $200,000 apiece on shares of Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE: KMP) and Kinder Morgan Management (NYSE: KMR).  Management subsequently explained the drop in maintenance capital spending since El Paso was acquired by Kinder Morgan item by item, noting in particular the greater share of routine maintenance reported by Kinder Morgan as operating expenses. The prospective yield is up to 6.1 percent ahead of earnings due the evening of Oct. 16. Continue to hold EPB.

Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) gained more than 4 percent over the last month and have now returned nearly 16 percent since we recommended their purchase in June. Investors have warmed to the prospect of strong distribution growth (approaching 15 percent or so in a couple of years) as ETE harvests incentive distribution rights from its subsidiary partnerships’ growth  projects. These include plans to export liquefied natural gas from the Trunkline LNG terminal in Lake Charles, Louisiana in a joint venture with the UK’s BG Group (NYSE: BG). On Oct. 1, the partners said they’ve finalized commercial arrangements among  themselves. Pending final project approvals, construction would start in 2015 and LNG exports of up to 15 million metric tons annually by 2019. Energy Transfer will own the three planned liquefaction trains, and supply the output to the BG Group under a long-term tolling agreement. The strong recent gains have driven down the yield to 3.9 percent ahead of earnings due after the market close on Nov. 6. Continue buying ETE below $69.

Energy Transfer Partners LP (NYSE: ETP) continued lagging behind general partner Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE), slipping 1 percent over the last month. While it’s up 20 percent year-to-date, ETE has rallied more than 40 percent over the same span. The yield is up to 6.9 percent, and while investors may be worried about the drag from ETE’s incentive distribution right, at this point these worries appear to be priced in. On Sept. 11, a director bought shares valued at more than $1 million at roughly the current price. Earnings are due the evening of Nov. 6. Continue to Hold ETP.

Enterprise Products Partners LP (NYSE: EPD) traded flat for the month, the prospective yield holding at 4.5 percent ahead of earnings scheduled for Oct. 31 before the market open. The partnership continues to prepare for the flood of natural gas liquids coming to the Gulf Coast from new domestic shale plays. On Sept. 17, it announced the completion of the seventh fractionator at its Mont Belvieu, Texas complex, boosting that hub’s NGL processing capacity by 85,000 barrels per day to 570,000 bpd.  The next week EPD said it would again expand its liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) export terminal in the Houston Ship Channel to handle an additional 1.5 million barrels a month, bringing the total capacity to 9 million barrels a month by early 2015. And the following week the partnership announced plans to build a new LPG terminal at a yet-to-be-selected site in Texas or Louisiana with the capacity to load at least 6 million barrels a month by the end of 2015. It also filed notice of a $1.25 billion secondary offering. EPD’s strong position in Gulf Coast NGL processing and many high-return growth projects are among the reasons it remains one of the most secure MLP investments.  Buy EPD below $66.

EQT Midstream Partners LP (NYSE: EQM) slipped less than 1 percent over the month, but remains one of the biggest MLP winners over the longer run with a gain of nearly 60 percent year-to-date. The gas gathering and processing partnership is benefiting from rapid output gains in the Marcellus Shale by sponsor EQT Resources (NYSE: EQT) as well as other producers. On Sept. 30 Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $59 price target, citing the strong growth and cash flow and the clean balance sheet, among other positives. The yield is a modest 3.2 percent ahead of earnings due the morning of Oct. 24, but given the rapid growth the yield is icing on the cake. Continue buying EQM below $51, while supplies last.

Genesis Energy (NYSE: GEL) slipped less than 1 percent in the last month, the yield holding at 4.1 percent. A dip at the beginning of the period in response to a 5 million unit secondary offering was quickly bought.  On Oct. 9 Genesis raised its quarterly distribution to $0.5225 per common unit, the 33rd consecutive quarterly hike representing an increase of 10.6 percent year-over-year and 2.5 percent sequentially. That bumped the current annualized yield up to 4.2 percent ahead of earnings scheduled for the morning of Oct. 31. Buy GEL up to $55.

Icahn Enterprises LP (NYSE: IEP) gained 8 percent in its first month in the portfolio, and paid out the first quarterly dividend at the raised $1.25 rate on Oct.9, for a prospective annual yield of 6 percent.  Majority owner Carl Icahn kept up a hectic pace of investing and lecturing, supping with Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) CEO Tim Cook to lobby for a bigger share buyback, taking an activist stake in Canada’s Talisman Energy (NYSE, TSX: TLM) and reaching a peace accord with another corporate target and activist investor Nuance Communications (Nasdaq: NUAN), which will add two Icahn nominees to its board. He also found a time to merge his closely held railcar leasing business with IEP’s, freeing up more than $600 million while boosting IEP’s cash flow at a reasonable price. Earnings should hit the morning of Nov. 4.  Buy IEP below $83.

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (NYSE: KMP) slipped 2 percent in the last month, and while that seems like a modest hit in light of Hedgeye’s scaremongering, the unit price is also down 7 percent in the last year even as other MLPs have forged big gains. Meanwhile, the partnership continue to deliver on the promised growth for a variety of expansion projects, including the recent launch of operations at its new oil terminal in the Houston Ship Channel and the announced expansion of its pipeline deeper into the Eagle Ford shale play following an agreement with a large producer. The prospective yield is up to 6.7 percent ahead of earnings due Oct. 16 after the market close. General partner Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI), which lost 5 percent in the last month despite thoroughly debunking Hedgeye’s allegations, now yields 4.5 percent and remains one of the best deals in the space. CEO Richard Kinder bought shares worth nearly $18 million on Sept. 9, bringing the value of his stake to nearly $8.2 billion. Continue buying KMI below $42 and KMP below $86.

Legacy Reserves LP (Nasdaq: LGCY) gained 3 percent in the last month, bringing the yield down to 8.4 percent ahead of earnings due the evening of Oct. 30. At a recent presentation, the CEO highlighted the partnership’s origins as a family business and the alignment of the insiders’ interests with those of the limited partners via their 18 percent stake in LP units and the absence of incentive distribution rights. Legacy targets annual distribution growth of 3 to 6 percent and looks to reinvest up to 30 percent of cash flow in production from the wells it buys, mostly in the endlessly productive Permian Basin of West Texas. Management’s shopping and operating acumen has produced a lengthy track record of attractive returns, one reason the units continue to trade at a premium to other upstream MLPs. Buy LGCY below $29.

Magellan Midstream Partners LP (NYSE: MMP)  moved up 2 percent in the last month. The partnership announced the retirement of its CFO effective March 31, 2014, and plans to boost the capacity of its Longhorn Pipeline linking the booming Permian Basin with the refineries in and around Houston by 50,000 barrels per day to a total of 275,000 bpd. It has secured firm customer commitments for the added capacity. The $55 million project is due to be completed by the middle of next year and Magellan will add a new point of origin as well by early 2015 at a cost of $25 million. The yield stands at 3.7 percent ahead of earnings due the morning of Oct. 31, and the distribution is expected to grow 16 percent this year and 15 percent in 2014. With strong distribution coverage funding ample growth opportunities, Magellan remains one of the cleanest MLP stories.  Buy MMP below $60.

Mid-Con Energy Partners LP (Nasdaq: MCEP) gained less than 2 percent in the last month, and now offers a prospective yield of 8.7 percent ahead of earnings due after the closing bell on Nov. 6. The mid-Continent waterflooding specialist remains a value play based on its relatively low leverage and low production costs, which leave it with much more cash flow per barrel of oil produced than its peers. Buy MCEP below $24.

Navios Maritime Partners LP (NYSE: NMM) treaded water over the last month despite incurring a 4.5 percent hit on Sept. 20 after a follow-on offering of 5 million units. After the recent delivery and charter newbuild capesize carrier, its fleet has 22 ships and is 48 percent booked for 2014. Navios has committed to maintaining its current dividend through at least the end of 2014, which would preserve a prospective current yield of 12.3 percent. Earnings are due Oct. 24 before the market open. Buy NMM below $15.50.

Oaktree Capital Group, LLC (NYSE: OAK) advanced 7 percent in the last month ahead of results expected the morning of Nov. 6. At a recent investor conference, Oaktree Chairman Howard Marks suggested the markets were no longer as cheap as they were for the distressed assets specialist after the financial crash, but not so expensive as to punish prudent risk-taking. He also stressed the group’s superior long-term investing track record and its stellar client roster, including 100 of the top 300 global pension funds, 75 of the 100 largest US pension funds, 38 states, 10 sovereign wealth funds and 300 universities, endowments and foundations. Earnings over the next six month should be up impressively from a year ago but will likely trail the first half of the year, which was boosted by the disbursement of profits from an especially large and lucrative fund. Buy OAK below $56.

Oiltanking Partners LP (NYSE: OILT) was the biggest monthly winner in the portfolios, rallying 12 percent. There was no news to credit for the jump, beyond the general expectation for continued strong growth as the partnership capitalizes on the flows of continental crude to the Gulf, which lacks sufficient storage capacity. Those prospects turn the current yield of 3.1 percent into merely a bonus rather than the main attraction. Earnings are due nov. 6 after the closing bell. Continue buying OILT on any dips below $50.

Regency Energy Partners LP (NYSE: RGP) dropped 8 percent over the last month, the entirety of the decline coming on Oct. 10 after Regency agreed to buy PVR Partners (NYSE: PVR) for $5.6 billion including the assumption of $1.8 billion in debt. PVR Partners unitholders are in line to receive 1.02 Regency units for each of their PVR units in addition to a $40 million aggregate cash payment, netting a 26 percent premium based on the Oct. 9 close. We, of course, booted PVR from our portfolio in August after the latest disappointing results, and now it comes back like a bad penny in a takeover that has sliced the price of another portfolio holding. But RGP’s management does have a point in highlighting PVR’s presence in some of the fastest growing shale plays, and MLP investors are clearly chasing growth. RGP units now yield 7.1 percent ahead of earnings due after the Nov. 6 market close. Continue to hold RGP.

Spectra Energy Partners LP (NYSE: SEP) gained nearly 4 percent in the last month. The partnership announced increased shipping commitments for the Express-Platte pipeline bringing crude from Alberta, Canada to US refineries in the Rocky Mountains. The average contract length jumped from 1.5 to 11 years, and the Express pipeline in now expected to generate annual Ebitda of $160 million, up from the prior forecast of $144 million. The partnership also sold $1.9 billion of senior notes to finance the massive $12 billion asset dropdown by sponsor Spectra Energy (NYSE: SE) announced in August. The prospective yield of 4.6 percent reflects planned distribution growth of approximately 9 percent. Earnings are due Nov. 4 before the market open. Continue to hold SEP.

Sunoco Logistics Partners LP (NYSE: SXL) advanced 3 percent over the last month despite a Sept. 27 downgrade to Neutral by Credit Suisse. The yield is down to 3.6 percent, but the growth opportunities presented by the rapid development of the shale basins served by the partnership’s crude and refined products pipelines remain attractive. The distribution has been increased by 5 percent in each of the last three quarters. The next earnings report is due Nov. 6 after the market close. Buy SXL below $67.

Targa Resources Partners LP (NYSE: NGLS) shares slipped 2 percent in the last month ahead of earnings due Nov. 4 after the market close. An investor presentation released last month highlighted strong growth prospects in gathering and processing within the Permian and Bakken basins, among others, as well as in fractionation and logistics along the Gulf coast. The partnership is targeting distribution growth of 10 to 12 percent this year, and the current yield is at 5.7 percent. Buy NGLS on dips below $44.

Teekay LNG Partners LP (NYSE: TGP) shed 4 percent over the last month, reversing gains notched in the first half of the period. On Oct. 1, the partnership announced a 3 million share secondary offering to fund a purchase and lease of a new LNG carrier to a Norwegian partner at an attractive long-term return rate. With a 6. 3 percent yield and the prospect of high demand for its ships and the many LNG export projects around the globe ramp up in the coming years, the partnership remains an excellent long-term investment. Earnings are scheduled for Nov. 4. Buy TGP below $46.

Vanguard Natural Resources (Nasdaq: VNR) inched up 1 percent in the last month, leaving the prospective yield at 9 percent ahead of earnings due the evening of Oct. 30. A recent company presentation stressed conservative capital spending and hedging policies. Buy VNR below $28.

 

Stock Talk

Add New Comments

You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk OR create an account