MLPs Still Paying, Out in the Cold

Unlike many of the drillers and oil services providers in our portfolios, master limited partnerships have not spoiled investors much of late, their prices checked by stretched valuations, worries about rising interest rates and operating glitches that tend to accompany rapid infrastructure buildouts.

Yet all that shale gas and crude will need to get to the market somehow, and to be processed into marketable fuels, increasingly for export as well as domestic consumption. As suppliers of these essential services, MLPs retain one of the clearest growth paths of any sector of the US economy. And they continue to pay out attractive distributions that are likely to grow as the businesses expand. The latest quarterly results were not without warts here and there, but the bullish overall story remains intact. Here is a rundown of the results reported by some of the MLPs in our portfolios.

Alliance Holdings GP LP
(Nasdaq: AHGP) The unit price declined 3.5 percent over the last month, as the general partner of a coal mining MLP remained the best house on a bad block amid the coal industry’s continuing malaise. (All performance data in this month’s update through Nov. 11.) Still, the partnership AHGP manages, Alliance Resources (Nasdaq: ARLP) managed revenue growth of 5 percent and a year-over-year EBITDA gain of 8 percent, with higher overall production at a lower cost per ton more than offsetting the continuing modest decline in the price of coal. AHGP, in turn, raised its quarterly distribution to $0.8075 per unit, a 2.9 percent increase over the prior quarter and a 12.2 percent hike year-over-year. The new rate works out to a 5.6 percent annual yield at the current year price, especially impressive given the reliably double-digit distribution growth rate, a healthy coverage ratio of 1.55 times and low debt. AHGP is a low-cost low-leverage producer of a commodity that’s poised to rebound as the closure of unprofitable mines curbs supply. Buy AHGP below $68.

Enterprise Products Partners LP
(NYSE: EPD) Although earnings fell just shy of Wall Street’s expectations, distributable cash flow excluding asset sales and insurance proceeds rose 6 percent in a year’s time, providing coverage of 1.5x to the increased distribution and letting one of the largest pipeline partnerships retain $286 million for investment in growth projects. The distribution increased 6.2 percent year-over-year to $0.69 per unit, offering a current annualized yield of 4.5 percent. The unit price ticked up not quite 2 percent in the month through Nov. 11 despite a secondary offering of 8 million common units last week. On Oct. 31, Enterprise and its partners placed into service the new 583-mile Texas Express Pipeline with an initial capacity to transport 280,000 barrels per day of natural gas liquids from mid-continent gathering systems to the fractionation hub at Mont Belvieu, Texas. Separately, an Enterprise executive said on the conference call that the company expects to prevail in the Seaway Pipeline tariff case before the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission,  covered elsewhere in this issue. Given the heavy slate of scheduled pipeline rollouts over the next two years supporting lucrative NGL distribution and export projects, investment -grade-rated Enterprise remains one of the safest bets in the MLP space.  Buy EPD below the raised target of $66.

EQT Midstream Partners LP
(NYSE: EQM) The Marcellus gas gatherer and shipper advanced 4 percent in the last month, though as with many MLPs the price ran out of gas late in the period. Earnings reported Oct. 24 comfortably exceeded expectations, and the partnership said annual EBITDA and distributable cash flow would come in at the upper end of prior guidance. The distribution rose 8 percent sequentially and 23 percent year-over-year to $0.43 per unit, for a 3.2 percent current annualized yield. Continue buying EQM on any dips below $51.

MarkWest Energy Partners
(NYSE: MWE) MarkWest’s disappointing third-quarter results might as well have been titled “A Series of Unfortunate Events.” Though rapidly growing gathering volumes in the Marcellus boosted distributable cash flow 11 percent in a year’s time, that wasn’t nearly enough to offset the 25 percent increase in the unit count as well as 4.9 percent year-over-year increase in the unit payout, resulting in a distribution coverage decline to 0.92x, from 1.09x a year ago, when MarkWest was able to increase its payout by 11 percent. The partnership attributed the $14 million shortfall in operating income relative to its expectations to several temporary drags, including costly resort to third-party processing services in the Marcellus pending the rollout of additional in-house capacity, delays on a third-party pipeline project in the region as well as a landslide that took one of its gas processing complexes offline for two months. Some of these factors will still take their toll in the current quarter, leading the partnership to trim its annual forecast for distributable cash flow and causing the unit price to drop 10 percent in a day as a result. The plunge reversed the considerable gains made by MWE over the last three months. But next year’s outlook is much stronger, even as MarkWest invests billions in the infrastructure buildout its customers demand. Investing in MLPs often requires one to take the long view, and from that perspective MarkWest continues to offer some of the best growth opportunities. Disappointment with the latest results has bumped the annualized yield based on the newly announced payout to 5 percent. Buy MWE below $77.

Mid-Con Energy Partners
(Nasdaq: MCEP) had the same up-and-down quarter as other drillers among MLPs, rallying early only to fade in the stretch as crude prices pulled back. The waterflooding specialist boosted its quarterly distribution 6 percent year-over-year to an annualized $2.06 per unit, for an 8.5 percent current yield. But while acquisitions boosted year-over-year output 32 percent, it slipped 3 percent sequentially as some previously producing wells were injected to refresh the recovery rate while other newly drilled ones awaited completion.  The distribution hike amid slowing production lowered the coverage ratio to a still healthy 1.19 times, and management cast its decision to take some of the wells offline as an investment in their future. But the decision will limit fourth-quarter output as well, and management didn’t provide much clarity on when the current injections might start to pay off, beyond intent to raise distributions next year. The partnership is also working on a near-term acquisition to spur growth, according to management. The unit price got hit, though, as Raymond James downgraded MCEP from Outperform to Market Perform. This is an opportunity, not a trap, though waiting for the acquisition news would be prudent. Buy MCEP below the reduced target of $24.
 

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