The Winter of Asian Discontent

In 2011, the Middle East underwent its so-called Arab Spring. So far this year, we seem to be witnessing an Asian winter. Nonetheless, investors can warm themselves over the Asia-based recommendations below.

Let’s start our regional overview with Thailand. After three years of relative calm, Thailand has been rocked by political protests for nearly two months. This past November, Thailand’s lower house of parliament passed an amnesty bill that could have allowed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to return to the country without serving time in jail on corruption allegations. Ousted in a military coup in 2006, Shinawtra has lived in a self-imposed exile since then, while his sister and current Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has tried to pave the way for his return.

Since the November vote, hundreds of thousands of anti-government protestors have virtually shutdown Bangkok and prompted all of the opposition members of parliament to resign from government. That forced snap elections earlier this week, with protestors forcing the closure of several polling stations and calling the legitimacy of the election into question.

Thai rice farmers are now upping the ante in the protests, threatening to blockade many of the country’s main roads while opposition elements fight the election results in the courts.

The situation has become so serious that the Bank of Thailand is warning that country’s economy is likely to suffer due to the disruptions.

While we don’t have any positions in our portfolio exposed to Thailand’s political tensions, the problems there have been spilling over into Cambodia, where we do.

Since elections this past July, waves of protestors have surged across Cambodia and its capital city of Phnom Penh claiming that the elections were rigged. Garment workers, a major industry in Cambodia, have also been protesting to at least double their minimum wage and violence has been spreading. Pro-government security forces have been making mass arrests, evicting protestors from their staging camps and there have been some reported fatalities among the protestors.

Phnom Penh is relatively quiet now and given the timing of the protests, NagaCorp’s (Hong Kong: 3918, OTC: NGCRF) 2013 results aren’t likely to have been impacted. The company’s earnings announcement on February 12 will probably be unsurprising. But so far this year the Cambodian casino operator’s shares have fallen by 14 percent, as investors worry that tourist arrivals to Cambodia, a major driver of Naga’s profits, will drop off because of the turmoil.

The current problems in Cambodia largely stem from demographics. Thanks to a high birth rate, there’s been a rapid shift in perceptions. Most of the protestors were born in the 1980s, which means few remember the dark days of communism or the Khmer Rouge. Cambodia’s younger generation also tends to be better educated and less circumspect when it comes to challenging authority.

The country’s politicians, on the other hand, tend to be older and are generally seen as out-of-touch with the needs of the younger generation.

The current government has also been in power for decades, accustomed to dealing with armed insurgents on a war footing. Largely peaceful protest movements pose a challenge for the government since it has little experience with them, complicating its response. So far, though, the government’s actions have been relatively restrained with only occasional incidents of violence.

The timing is relatively unfortunate, as the Chinese government continues to implement tougher restrictions on gambling in Macau. To prevent money laundering and currency flight, the government has tightened down on how just how much cash Chinese citizens can move between Macau and the mainland. The government has also implemented table caps which have significantly slowed the growth of Macau’s casinos.

That has been a boon for Naga over the past few years, but competition has been growing across Asia as casinos have been sprouting up from Singapore to Manila. Naga’s competitive advantage of being located in a politically stable country might be tarnished, sending more gamblers to other countries and casinos.

While official government statistics aren’t yet available for the period when the protests began, airline data shows that international tourist entries have been off by at least 10 percent over the past month. However, Vietnamese entries into the country, one of the largest groups thanks to visa-free travel, appear to be holding steady for now, so Naga is likely in the clear for now.

Take advantage of this dynamic and pick up additional shares of NagaCorp, which is now trading well below my target price of USD8.

Beneficiary of the Turmoil

Vietnam, which borders Cambodia and lies east of Thailand, has been extremely stable and calm since the problems began. While the country struggled with high inflation a few years back, the government there has largely gotten a handle on its economic problems, with inflation now averaging about 6 percent.

The Vietnamese dong has also stabilized relative to the dollar, as nominal interest rates in the country have come down, loan growth is picking up and foreign exchange reserves are growing. The dong has traded at around 21,000 to the dollar for the better part of two years now.

The Chinese Communist Party has only recently come to the realization that it must adjust its economic policies to maintain rule, but its Vietnamese counterparts reached that conclusion almost a decade ago. That sparked a monetary and fiscal crackdown a few years ago which, while painful then, has left the country on a healthy growth trajectory and has been attracting a growing tide of foreign direct investment (FDI). After receiving only about USD2 billion in FDI a decade ago, this year the figure is likely to be closer to USD10 billion.

The Vietnamese government has also been busy cleaning up the balance sheets of its banks, which had become bloated with bad debt thanks to the “anything goes” mentality prior to the global financial crisis. As a result, nonperforming loans at Vietnamese banks are believed to have grown to nearly 20 percent of assets just a few years ago.

However, the government stepped in and began purchasing nonperforming loans in exchange for zero-coupon bonds, then allowing banks to borrow as much as 50 percent of the value of the bond from the government. This program has allowed banks to remain solvent while actually growing their loan books.

The government also plans to increase its foreign ownership limit in many of the country’s industries over the coming year, boosting it from the current 49 percent to 60 percent. Not only is the move designed to attract additional foreign capital, it aims to make the country more appealing to manufacturers leaving China due to growing labor costs there.

In that respect, the turmoil gripping Southeast Asia is working in Vietnam’s favor. The country’s political stability and the proactive moves taken by the government to stabilize the economy have already been paying off, attracting higher-end manufacturers.

Vietnam’s export mix has been steadily shifting away from low value-added products such as commodities and cheap export goods to electronics such as smartphones. Over the past three years alone, those higher value-added goods have gone from making up less than five percent of exports to around 20 percent last year.

While Vietnam has its own idiosyncrasies, it should be a top performing market once again in 2014.

So far this year, our position in Market Vectors Vietnam Exchange Traded Fund (NYSE: VNM) has already returned better than 14 percent. That’s largely thanks to the ETF’s exposure to the country’s rallying banking sector (nearly 25 percent of assets) which is finally being recognized for its improving credit quality.

The fund is also heavily exposed to the country’s energy sector, at 19.2 percent of assets. Vietnamese energy commodities have come into high demand in both Russia and China, with each country courting the government for greater access. Indian companies have also been partnering with local energy firms to develop exploration and production projects as well as pipelines and other transportation infrastructure. This ETF provides a solid way to tap into Vietnam’s growing economy and political stability.

Continue buying Market Vectors Vietnam ETF up to 25.

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