When Almost Even Sounds Good

What a difference three weeks make.

That’s how much time has elapsed since the S&P 500 was back to even for 2014, while the Alerian MLP Index was nursing losses of more than 2 percent.

MLPs haven’t exactly set the finance world on fire since; the Alerian is still down 1.65 percent year-to-date. But with the S&P now off 5.25 percent over the same span, down 1.65 percent feels almost like winning. (All figures in this story through Feb. 5)

The MLP Profits portfolio has performed a bit better than that: the 30 holdings other than the trio added this week have slipped just 0.4 percent this year on average. Time will tell whether this is anything more than random noise. But in tight spots like these even the odd bit of dumb luck is most welcome.

Our best performers since the calendar turned are unsurprisingly, the beneficiaries, direct or otherwise, of the rallying prices of natural gas and natural gas liquids.

EQT Midstream (NYSE: EQM) tops the list with a gain of 7.6 percent so far in 2014. EQM’s prime Marcellus gathering and transmission infrastructure is looking that much more valuable with natural gas trying to carve out a new base above $5 per mmBtu. Having the backing of a leading regional producer helps, insurance for the rapid growth investors crave even if it comes with what is now a yield of just 2.9 percent.

Atlas Resources Partners (NYSE: ARP) is so far 7.3 percent in the black on the year, an encouraging start for this Jan. 4 portfolio addition. Atlas is primarily a natural gas and liquids producer, and as such benefits directly from the higher spot prices. Its recent distribution increase (along with a shift to monthly payouts) puts Atlas well on its way to exceeding the low end of its annual guidance, which would amount to a yield of 10.9 percent at the current price. That implies a healthy dose of skepticism about this guidance and ARP’s long-term profitability, skepticism we simply do not share.

Alliance Holdings (NYSE: AHGP) is up 6.1 percent in 2014, and it too is rooting for sky-high natgas prices. In Alliance’s case that’s because gas in the main competition to the thermal coal mined by its operating affiliate, Alliance Resource Partners (NYSE: ARLP). The cold winter has increased coal demand, and the fact that Alliance reported strong numbers and once again appears to have much of this year’s production pre-sold at above-market prices also hasn’t hurt.

On the opposite side of the ledger we have Western Refining (NYSE: WNR), down 11.7 percent year-to-date but still clinging to a (barely) positive return over the last two months as the Arctic winter inflates the cost of crude it buys. CVR Refining (NYSE: CVRR) has shed 5.6 percent this year and in its case we were less lucky with our entry point. But both refiners are cheap enough relative to peers and throw off enough cash for us to preach patience. They have the added benefit of constituting  a natural hedge to upstream MLP crude producers.

Crestwood Midstream Partners (NYSE: CMLP) is down nearly 8 percent on the year, surrendering a comparable rapid gain in the second half of December. The yield on this diversified midstream logistics player and gatherer is up to 7.3 percent, and while management still has plenty to prove following last year’s takeover of Inergy, it’s risen up to the challenge in the past.

That’s also true of MLPs as a group, of course, and their relative resilience so far this year warrants notice. We’ll be even more enthused if operational results prove strong enough to overshadow interest rates when it comes to MLP performance. We’re not there yet. Then again, these are the early days.

 

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