The Return of Australian Retail

The persistent strength of Australia’s retail sector during the latter half of 2013 and early 2014 was one hopeful sign that the country’s economy was stronger than it appeared. And for the optimists among us, it suggested that another non-mining sector, in addition to real estate, could help drive the economy as the resource boom wanes.

Indeed, from October through January, retail sales not only rose, their pace of growth accelerated with each passing month, finally peaking with seasonally adjusted month-over-month growth of 1.2 percent in January. Thereafter, however, growth was essentially flat for three months, before the outright decline in May.

Falling consumer confidence amid a difficult job market and a contentious federal budget are considered among the possible culprits for this sudden weakness after such a strong run.

But the June numbers show that Australia’s consumer sentiment perhaps had greater resilience than expected–or at least that it doesn’t always flow through to spending.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), retail turnover rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6 percent month over month, blowing past the consensus forecast of 0.3 percent, based on data aggregated by Bloomberg. And the drop in sales initially reported for May was revised to a decline of 0.3 percent from a decline of 0.5 percent.

Economists with Westpac suspect that May’s poor showing was probably weather-related. And while consumers appear to have shaken off some of their aforementioned fears, key areas of discretionary spending, such as sales at department stores (down 0.5 percent), and cafes and restaurants (down 1.0 percent), fell in June, as The Wall Street Journal observed.

Household goods, which are presumably a beneficiary of the rise in housing construction, were among the areas that showed the greatest strength, increasing by 0.3 percent in volume terms. Among the industry subgroups, the strongest performers were electronic goods retailing (up 1.8 percent), furniture and homewares (up 2.2 percent) and hardware and building supplies (up 1.1 percent).

And AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver told the WSJ that rising retail sales in non-mining states such as New South Wales suggest stronger gains ahead for the sector. The WSJ reports that retail sales in NSW grew 8.8 percent year-to-date through June, compared to growth of 1.7 percent over that same period in resource-rich Western Australia.

Overall, June’s performance was also strong enough to lift second-quarter results above economists’ estimates, though they still posted a decline overall. Real retail sales, which exclude the effect of inflation, fell 0.2 percent quarter over quarter versus the consensus forecast of a 0.5 percent decline.

The rebound in retail sales also vindicates the Reserve Bank of Australia, which had predicted that weakening consumer sentiment would not translate into a steep drop in consumer spending.

Even with the usual nitpicking, Westpac sees the June retail report as positive for the economy overall, with the risk of a significant contraction greatly reduced. But it still expects a weak showing for second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

According to data aggregated by Bloomberg, private-sector economists forecast second-quarter GDP growth to decelerate to 3.1 percent, down four-tenths of a point from the first quarter. For full-year 2014, institutional economists project GDP will grow by 3.1 percent, while the Reserve Bank of Australia estimates the economy will expand by 3.0 percent.

Either result would be a huge improvement over last year’s 2.4 percent growth. And for this year at least, that also puts Australia’s economy on track to significantly outperform the US, whose economy is expected to grow by a comparatively anemic 1.7 percent.

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