Sapped Sentiment

According to a new study from the investment bank Credit Suisse, Australians are the wealthiest people in the world, with the average citizen worth more than USD225,000 as of June.

Of course, given the country’s booming housing market, a substantial portion of this wealth is tied to real estate, which accounted for about 60 percent of gross assets.

Despite such an enviable status, Australian consumer sentiment remains near a three-year low.

Still, given the recent slide in global equity markets, it could be worse. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment actually rose 0.9 percent over the past month, to 94.8 from 94.0.

That’s a far cry from the positively ebullient sentiment evidenced by an index reading above 110.0 that registered just a year ago. Australians’ optimistic outlook at the time coincided with the conclusion of the country’s federal elections.

But since then, a difficult job market, a contentious federal budget, and worries about the high-flying housing market have sapped consumer sentiment. The latest survey marks the eight consecutive month in which pessimists have outnumbered optimists, as indicated by a reading below 100.

Prior to this year’s doldrums, consumer sentiment had registered above 100 in all but one of the 16 months during that period.

However, the data underpinning the index show some constructive developments. For instance, the government tabled some controversial budget initiatives, which Westpac economists believe could have a correlation with consumers’ improving outlook on household finances.

The component “family finances vs. a year ago” increased by 4.4 percent, while “family finances next 12 months” rose by 1.2 percent. Nevertheless, on a year-over-year basis, these components are down by an average of 5.6 percent.

Australians are also warily eyeing global economic developments, or lack thereof, and are understandably rattled, just like the rest of us. Expectations for “economic conditions over the next 12 months” fell by 5.2 percent.

Interestingly, this contrasts with a five-year economic outlook that actually improved by 5.5 percent. Overall, these components are down by an average of 21 percent from a year ago.

Consumers are also taking a cautious stance toward future spending. The component “whether now is a good time to buy a major household item” fell by 0.4 percent and is down 8.4 percent from a year ago.

Homeowners and prospective homebuyers continue to view the rising housing market with skepticism. Though there is some variation among regional markets, the overall index for “whether now is a good time to purchase a dwelling” increased by 2.3 percent, but remains 12.4 percent below its level of a year ago and 18.5 percent below its level two years ago.

Expectations for home prices have also diminished, with the index that measures price expectations dropping sharply over the past month, down 11.2 percent in October and now 12.8 percent below its level of a year ago. The percentage of respondents expecting house prices to rise fell to 53.8 percent from 66 percent.

At the same time, Australians see better times ahead when it comes to the country’s job market. Unemployment expectations fell by 3.9 percent, which Westpac notes is the lowest reading since November 2013. The index for this component has declined 9.6 percent since its March high.

Despite somewhat gloomy consumer sentiment, Australia’s economy is still expected to outpace the US this year. According to data aggregated by Bloomberg, private-sector economists forecast Australia’s gross domestic product to grow by 3.0 percent, a significant eight-tenths of a percentage point better than projections for the US.

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