Job Creation Finally Returns to Australia’s Economy

Australia’s economy appears to have given us a reprieve after last month’s demoralizing employment report.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the country’s economy added 24,100 jobs in October, moderately surpassing the consensus forecast of 20,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate held steady at 6.2%, an 11-year high, though in line with expectations, while the labor force participation rate improved by a tenth of a percentage point, to 64.6%, though it remains near an eight-year low.

Full-time employment rose by 33,400, while part-time employment fell by 9,400. Full-time jobs are considered to be of higher quality, since part-time jobs generally have lower pay, fewer benefits, and higher turnover.

As such, it’s welcome news whenever full-time employment is the driving factor behind the headline number.

Unfortunately, even with these latest data, full-time job creation has averaged just 5,400 positions per month over the trailing year, though it has outpaced part-time job creation, which averaged just 3,300 jobs per month over that same period.

The aggregate monthly hours worked, which can be an important indicator of future labor demand, rose by 1.6% month over month. On a year-over-year basis, however, the number of hours worked is up by just 1.2%.

In his latest statement on monetary policy, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens had a decidedly gloomy outlook on the country’s jobs market. “Although some forward indicators of employment have been firming this year,” he observed, “the labor market has a degree of spare capacity, and it will probably be some time yet before unemployment declines consistently.”

Unfortunately, we can’t fully enjoy October’s welcome respite from Australia’s otherwise weak employment trend.

That’s because the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) revision to its seasonal-adjustment methodology has many wondering whether its data are still trustworthy.

To recap, the government agency decided to revisit August’s blockbuster jobs report, which initially showed that the country’s economy added a whopping 121,000 jobs that month, the highest number on record, blowing past the consensus forecast of 15,000 jobs.

But in reviewing those data, the ABS had second thoughts, and the agency’s statisticians decided to throw out the usual seasonal adjustment for July, August and September, after determining that typical seasonal patterns had not been evident during that period.

Instead, the initial revision to the data showed that the Australian economy added just over 32,000 jobs in August. That’s still a strong result when compared to the country’s typical pace of job creation, but it’s a far, far cry from a gain of 121,000 jobs.

But then that number was revised once more, and now shows a drop of 8,900 jobs for August.

Even worse, September’s labor force survey was a huge disappointment. The number of jobs was initially reported to have fallen by nearly 30,000 that month, though that was subsequently revised to a loss of 23,700 jobs.

Over the trailing year, job creation has averaged an anemic 8,800 jobs per month, compared to 12,800 jobs per month over the trailing five-year period.

In addition to keeping interest rates at historic lows, the RBA hopes that a lower exchange rate will help fix what ails the economy.

Although the aussie hit a new low for this cycle of USD0.856 earlier this week, the central bank said, “The Australian dollar remains above most estimates of its fundamental value, particularly given the further declines in key commodity prices over the course of this year.”

The RBA believes that further depreciation would support demand for Australian producers, with each 10% decline adding a half point to a full point to the country’s gross domestic product over the ensuing two-year period.

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