The Goods on Canada’s Services

With crude oil officially in a bear market, it’s important to remember that there’s more to the Canadian investment story than just resources. The country’s service sector actually dwarfs its goods-producing sector. And the service sector is growing in relation to its better-known peer.

Services are easy to overlook when it comes to Canada because the two global commodities booms that have occurred since 2000 have kept investors fixated on the country’s resource riches. The service sector accounted for 70% of Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) in August, while the goods-producing sector accounted for the rest, according to Statistics Canada.

Of course, the two operate hand in glove, with the wealth generated by energy and mining flowing through to other areas of the country’s economy. Even so, the global financial crisis appears to have caused a moderate realignment in favor of growth of the service sector’s share of the economy.

For example, as August GDP figures show, the service sector’s trailing-year output has grown by 2.5% year-over-year versus 1.5% for the goods-producing sector.

But don’t let the resource sector’s boom-and-bust cycle get you down. Instead, turn to some of the service sector–oriented plays in our Conservative Portfolio to lower the commodity risk from the holdings in our Aggressive Portfolio.

Logical Buys

For example, in the service sector, the transportation and warehousing industry continues to far outpace its peers, with trailing-year growth of 5.8%.

And recent hiring suggests this growth will be sustained. The industry expanded its payrolls by 2.5% year-over-year through October, which has it tied for first in employment growth among Canada’s subsectors.

Conservative Portfolio holding TransForce Inc. (OTC: TFIFF, TSX: TFI) has been one beneficiary of this trend. Analysts forecast that the transportation and logistics company’s adjusted earnings per share are on track to rise 28% year-over-year in 2014 and then jump 34% in 2015.

Retail trade has been another surprisingly strong area of the economy, with growth up 3.7% from a year ago. Although Canada’s consumers carry a significant amount of debt, that hasn’t stopped them from continuing to open their wallets.

Their spendthrift ways likely stem in part from the wealth effect of Canada’s housing boom. The real estate industry has also been one of the top performers in the country’s service sector, with growth up 3.1% year-over-year.

Conservative Portfolio holding RioCan REIT (TSX: REI-U, OTC: RIOCF) provides investors with exposure to both areas. RioCan is not only Canada’s largest real estate investment trust (REIT) by market capitalization, it also boasts the country’s largest portfolio of malls and shopping centers, with nearly 40 million square feet across 277 income-producing properties.

The REIT typically has a high occupancy rate, recently at 97% during the third quarter, which keeps cash flows stable over the long term.

With RioCan, slow and steady wins the race. Analysts forecast that funds from operations (FFO) per unit, the relevant measure of a REIT’s profits, will rise by 4% year-over-year in 2014, and they expect that growth rate to be sustained through 2015.

Crude Concerns

Although the latest data for Canada’s national accounts are only available through August, investors are understandably concerned that crude’s decline could take a significant bite out of GDP.

But economists with the Royal Bank of Canada believe that the resulting bump to U.S. GDP growth resulting from lower energy prices could mean greater demand for Canadian exports, thus offsetting the harm of a sustained decline in crude prices.

Still, it remains to be seen if the historically strong relationship between rising U.S. economic growth and higher Canadian export activity will fully reassert itself and prop up the goods-producing sector. A lower exchange rate will certainly help. But for now, it’s all about the services sector.

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