Canada’s Jobs Trend Is on the Mend

One month does not a trend make, as the old adage goes, but what about two months? For the second month in a row, job creation in Canada’s economy has blown past expectations.

According to Statistics Canada (StatCan), employment jumped by more than 43,000 in October, trouncing the consensus forecast of a drop in 5,000 jobs, based on a survey of economists by Bloomberg.

The latest result also finally ends the tendency of job gains in one month to be followed by job losses the next, a frustrating pattern that had persisted for nearly a year.

Equally important, September’s stellar number, which was initially reported as a gain of 74,100 jobs, survived StatCan’s customary revision intact.

October’s numbers were strong enough to lower Canada’s unemployment rate by a substantial three-tenths of a percentage point, to 6.5%, the lowest level since the onset of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).

The labor force participation rate held steady at 66%, in line with expectations, though at a 13-year low. The participation rate measures the number of people employed, as well as those who are actively seeking work. This number may seem discouraging at first glance, but there could be structural factors at play, particularly the ongoing retirement wave among baby boomers.

The fact that it’s taken so long for the country’s unemployment rate to drop to pre-GFC levels underscores the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) observation that the period since the downturn has been more akin to a post-war recovery than a typical cyclical rebound.

At the same time, when viewing data for the unemployment rate over a much longer-term period, it’s clear that the period that preceded the Great Recession makes for an exceedingly tough comparable–and one that may not be all that instructive.

That’s because, according to economists with BMO Capital Markets, the only other time during the past 40 years in which the unemployment rate was at or below its current level was during the three-year period between late 2005 and late 2008, amid that era’s global commodities boom. Given this context, Canada’s job market may be doing better than it seems.

There were also promising developments below the headline numbers. October’s results were largely driven by full-time employment, which rose by 26,500, while part-time employment was up 16,500. Full-time positions are considered higher quality than part-time jobs, owing to the lower pay, fewer benefits and higher turnover characteristic of the latter.

Despite the impressive increase in full-time employment over the past two months, there’s more work to be done on the job-quality front.

Employment over the trailing year has still largely been driven by growth in part-time jobs. During that time, the number of full-time jobs has grown by just 0.6%, or 81,000 positions, with the entirety of that gain occurring in just the past two months. Meanwhile, part-time jobs grew by 3.0%, or 101,000 positions.

And overall job growth over the past year has been a tepid 1%, while the number of hours worked, an important indicator of future labor demand, has risen by just 0.4%.

Wage growth has also been sluggish, up just 1.9% year over year for full-time employees, slightly below the rate of inflation.

For investment themes, we like to monitor which industries are enjoying the strongest jobs growth over the trailing year.

While the resource-oriented industries in the goods-producing sector have understandably pared their hiring in the wake of falling commodities prices, job growth in the manufacturing sector is up 2% year over year.

This suggests that, just as the BoC has hoped, a lower exchange rate is finally flowing through to the country’s beleaguered export-oriented manufacturers. Of course, a resurgent U.S. economy is the other key factor here.

In fact, BMO’s chief economist Doug Porter notes that, with surpluses posted in six of the past eight months through September, the trade balance appears on track to post a surplus for the full year.

And Export Development Canada, the country’s export credit agency, believes a low loonie and a growing U.S. economy will be a boon for Ontario’s export industries in the coming year, particularly in the areas of industrial machinery, chemicals and plastics.

That’s evidenced by the sudden surge in jobs in the manufacturing-oriented province. Companies domiciled in Ontario boosted payrolls by 37,000 in October, causing the province’s unemployment rate to drop six-tenths of a point, to 6.5%, from the prior month.

In the service sector, the transportation and warehousing industry continues to be one of the top hirers, with employment up 2.5% year over year, further evidence perhaps of the strength in cross-border trade.

So even with the downturn in the resource sector, Canada’s economy is showing that the country is more than just a commodities play.

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