British Columbia Finally Blinks

It’s amazing what a “drop dead” deadline can do when slow-moving politicians are in danger of losing a tax-revenue windfall. That was the case with British Columbia’s foot-dragging on various tax and regulatory decisions for the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Asia.

Petronas CEO Shamsul Abbas, whose firm is the lead stakeholder in the USD10.2 billion Pacific NorthWest LNG venture, has repeatedly chastised the province for its glacial policymaking and regulatory process.

Most recently, Abbas warned in early October of a potential 15-year delay for the project if certain approvals were not secured by year-end.

And that was no idle threat. Given the role that long-term contracts of 20 years or more play in the global LNG market, there are relatively brief windows of time during which it’s advantageous to pursue development of such projects.

According to Business in Vancouver, the last time B.C. dawdled, which was in the 1980s, the three export plants proposed during that period were tabled. As energy consultant Hank Petranik told the weekly newspaper, “That Canadian market went to Australia. This is generational. This is not a case where, if we don’t do this one it will happen next year or the year after. The risk you run is that it’s another 25 years.”

So with Petronas set to make its final investment decision by year-end, the prickly province got into gear.

As we reported in late October, B.C. provided long-awaited clarity on its two-tiered tax regime for LNG exporters, which included a major concession by halving one of the two taxes to 3.5% from an earlier proposed rate of 7%.

And this week, the province finally gave Petronas the green light by issuing environmental assessment certificates for the company’s LNG export terminal along with TransCanada Corp’s (TSX: TRP, NYSE: TRP) USD4.5 billion, 900-kilometer Prince Rupert Gas Transmission pipeline, which will feed it.

Although Chevron Corp’s Kitimat LNG project had previously received environmental approval from the province, Petronas’ Pacific NorthWest LNG project is widely considered to be the frontrunner in the race for first export among Canada’s 18 proposed LNG terminals.

To win approval, each company proposed a number of significant route or design changes to minimize the project’s impact on the environment.

While approval from federal regulators is still pending, with a decision not expected until as late as mid-2015, in contrast to B.C.’s thorny process, the imprimatur from the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency (CEAA) feels more like a formality.

That’s because the regulator is headed by a Conservative member of parliament appointed by Prime Minister Stephen Harper, whose government is keen on diversifying the country’s export markets. And perhaps the CEAA will move to expedite its own process now that B.C. has approved the project.

Of course, there’s always more red tape, including various permits as well as eventual compliance with the eight social and environmental conditions upon which the province based its approval, but this latest decision was indeed a key threshold.

Still, it remains to be seen whether Petronas does indeed decide to proceed with construction of the project at this juncture. The state-owned Malaysian energy giant has previously characterized the economics of this project as “marginal,” owing to the high cost of skilled labor for construction and operation in Canada’s energy sector.

And that brings us to the other part of the equation, which B.C. likely found as compelling as Petronas’ deadline: the recent bear market in crude oil prices. In addition to the impact of softening crude prices on energy producers’ portfolios, the price of LNG has long been linked to crude oil due to the absence of a global benchmark. So crude’s decline could pinch potential LNG exporters such as Petronas on two fronts.

Assuming that Petronas ultimately moves ahead with the project, then construction could commence as early as next year, with first export in 2019, according to the company’s timeline. Hopefully, the economics still prove compelling.

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