As upstream MLPs twist on the hook with their oxygen supply — meaning access to affordable capital — choked off, their debt and equity hitting new lows every day, it’s getting harder and harder to summon up the bargain-hunting enthusiasm I felt 12 days ago for Memorial Production Partners (NASDAQ: MEMP) and Vanguard Natural Resources (NASDAQ: VNR).

So I have to keep reminding myself that the ongoing crash is getting close to getting backstopped by book value, cash flow and sheer exhaustion of selling momentum.

If you believe that every last upstream MLP will be denied debt and equity financing forever more, if you think crude’s not going to see $80 a barrel again for  decade, or if your risk tolerance is not gargantuan, then you should definitely steer clear.

Also, understand that no price is impossibly low in the near term and that the lower it goes the harder it becomes to raise capital.

Other than that, this could yet prove a profitable speculation since there’s definitely blood in the streets. I expect some upstream MLPs to outlast the bear market, and Memorial and Vanguard appear best placed to do so.

The most attractive feature of Memorial Production Partners is the partnership’s hedge book, which provides it with the most thorough and lasting protection against low oil prices of any upstream MLP.

Between 89% and 95% of recent crude output is hedged for the next four years at prices ranging from nearly $91 a barrel next year to nearly $84 in 2018. For 2019, MEMP has already hedged nearly half of its targeted 2014 production at more than $85 a barrel. Crude accounted for just over 30% of third-quarter production by volume but more than 60% of the revenue, but should be closer to 30% of forward sales.

Natural gas, which accounted for just over half recent production volumes but only a quarter of the revenue will be a more proportional contributor in the near future, and 96% of the recent volume is hedged next year well above the current market price, the recent hedge position gradually declining to 62% of recent output in 2019.

Source: Memorial Production Partners presentation

Another source of relative comfort is the $1.1 billion recently available on the partnership’s credit line, which will allow it to keep growing (thereby maintaining its depletion tax shield) even if it’s unable to access capital markets for new funding for the next year or so.

MEMP has some less flattering attributes, among them a trailing debt/EBITDA ration above 5 and recent operating glitches that left third-quarter distributable cash flow covering just 81% of the most recent distribution.

On the Nov. 5 conference call following the third-quarter results, the vice president of finance said he expected MEMP to fully cover the expected 2015 distributions even if crude fell to $70 a barrel and natural gas to $3 per thousand British thermal units (MMbtu). Crude’s a lot lower now, but natural gas remains considerably higher. And MEMP’s hedge book means cheap oil is a major risk only if the discounts persist for several years.

Source: Memorial Production Partners presentation

The other drawback to keep in mind is that the partnership will pay out a growing share of future distributions to its general partner and private equity backers as incentive distribution rights, representing 15% to 25% of future growth in per unit payouts.

So MEMP only makes sense as a trade, not a long-term investment. But it is delivering a well-hedged 18% yield at the current price, and there are good reasons to believe that might seem attractive again down the line if and when oil prices stop plunging.

Aggressive speculators can buy MEMP for a trade below a reduced maximum of $15.

Vanguard Natural Resources is not quite as well hedged. It’s locked in 70% of next year’s anticipated production at $92 a barrel, but has sold puts that will significantly reduce the effectiveness of those hedges should crude remain below $70. And only 31% of Vanguard’s 2016 oil production is hedged.

Crude accounted for 16% of recent output by volume but for 44% of third-quarter revenue before hedging gains. Natural gas accounted for 71% of output volume but brought in slightly less revenue than crude. Vanguard has 81%, 62% and 36% of its expected gas production hedged annually over the next three years, in that order. Natural gas liquids, which made up 13% of recent volume, are largely unhedged.

The bottom line is that Vanguard’s probably set to cover 70% or so of its current distribution next year at current commodity prices. Then again it’s trading at an effective yield of more than 18% just like Memorial Production Partners. So if Vanguard can sustainably cover 70% of its current distribution that would equate to a yield of 12% for that reduced payout.

Management has said it will reduce capital spending rather than risk unsatisfactory returns as a result of low commodity prices. It does have access to $635 million on its credit line, and benefits from the lowest operating costs among upstream MLPs.

Source: Vanguard Natural Resources presentation

Other pluses are the absence of incentive distribution rights and the tilting of the acquisitions over the past three years toward natural gas rather than oil. After struggling to fully cover its distributions in the first half of the year, Vanguard finally reported sufficient distributable cash flow in the third quarter, albeit with the aid of two backdated acquisitions. Long-term debt is at 4.8x recent annualized EBITDA.

Crude prices will need to recover at least into the $70s next year or natural gas prices meaningfully increase for investors to feel confident about the current distribution level. The current unit price entirely discounts that possibility, yet Vanguard claims it has the wherewithal to deliver.

Aggressive speculators should buy VNR below the reduced maximum of $16. Vanguard’s perpetual preferred units are also worth a look. Series B (NASDAQ: VNRPB) now trades at a 35% discount to face value and at an effective yield of 11.8%.