Betting on Scale and Yield

Last year’s Best Buys outperformed the MLP sector by so much they’ve certainly earned an encore. And yet reluctant as we are to mess with what’s been working, we know that the market doesn’t stand still and that too much success appreciated too widely can turn a golden goose into a sitting duck.

So while most of the mainstays from last year’s rankings have returned, we’re seasoning the new edition with a couple of recent portfolio picks that look like bargains on the heels of recent selling. These newcomers don’t need crude back above $60 to do well; they just need to keep on keeping on and distributing their attractive yields.

1. Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD)

One of the largest and most conservatively managed MLPs, Enterprise has been hurt by worries that lower crude prices will erode the profits it earns from processing natural gas liquids and exporting the resulting liquefied petroleum gas. But its long-term service contracts provide plenty of protection, its Gulf export terminal is booked solid with guaranteed traffic for the next two years and a large pool of retained and reinvested earnings secures the distribution. The Oiltanking buyout ensures that the partnership will remain a key player in Gulf energy exports. Buy EPD below $42.50.

2. Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE: MMP)

The crude and refined products shipper shares many of the best qualities of EPD, with plenty of excess distribution coverage to see it through any short-term commodity bumps and ownership of its general partner, which avoids the drain of incentive distribution rights. Historically high levels of refining activity play into its strengths, as does the continued development of low-cost Texas shale. There’s a reason the unit price held up so well during the recent turmoil. Buy MMP below $90.

3. Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE)

As general partner of the largest and most diversified MLP family, ETE has minimal exposure to low oil prices, which in fact work to the advantage of the large and growing fuel distribution and retail operations owned by affiliates Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP) and Sunoco (NYSE: SUN). The diversified stream of incentive distribution rights supports a modest but growing yield in excess of 3%, which should get another boost if the big Lake Charles LNG export terminal gets the final go-ahead from ETE and venture partner BG Group (LSE: BG) this summer. CEO Kelcy Warren has proven himself as the shrewdest dealmaker in the industry. Buy ETE below $66.

4. Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP)

Trading the bulk of its incentive distribution rights in Sunoco Logistics (NYSE: SXL) for ETP units held by ETE has given this diversified MLP plenty of excess coverage to support its current 6.1% yield and improved growth prospects.  LNG exports from Lake Charles and via pipeline to Mexico should meaningfully boost gas transportation profits over time, and ETP will also benefit from the success of the filling stations it owns directly and via its interest in Sunoco. Buy ETP below $70.

5. Williams (NYSE: WMB)

After buying full control of Access Midstream Partners (NYSE: ACMP) and engineering its pending merger with its Williams Partners (NYSE: WPZ) affiliate, Williams is transitioning to a pure general partner reaping incentive distribution rights from investments financed on the cheap by MLP limited partners. Its pipeline footprint gives it lots of upside as the leading shipper of Marcellus and Utica gas to fast-growing Southeast, and the recent restart of the Geismar olefins plant damaged by a 2013 explosion offers a near-term profit boost. Buy WMB below $59. 

6. Targa Resources (NYSE: TRGP)

Like Williams, Targa started 2014 as a Best Buy and then moved off the list in the nick of time after a big gain in the first half of the year. The share price has certainly suffered a beating since topping $150 on the disclosure of (the ultimately unsuccessful) takeover approach by ETE, but Targa’s positioning as a key provider of midstream services to drillers in many of the lowest-cost shale plays remains, as does its strategically valuable LPG shipping terminal near Houston. The buyout of the midstream interests of Atlas Energy (NYSE: ATLS) and the imminent merger of their respective MLP affiliates will provide cost savings and a tax shield for a Targa dividend expected to increase another 30%+ this year. Buy TRGP below $135.

7. Capital Products Partners (NASDAQ: CPLP)

The owner of a fleet of fuel and (a few) crude tankers boasts a 10.4% current yield more than fully covered by current income from the recently tight market tanker market, and should be announcing a restart of distribution growth in the near future. The current contango in the crude and fuel markets rewards the storage of cheap oil and gasoline, adding to demand for storage, including floating storage. At the same time, low energy prices should stimulate both demand and seaborne traffic, while lowering operating costs. The pick has already returned 15% since joining the Aggressive Portfolio last month. Buy CPLP below the increased price target of $10. 

8. Global Partners (NYSE: GLP)

The Northeast fuel distributor and filling station operator has lost ground since we recommended it a two months ago, likely on concerns about the impact of the oil slump on its logistics business sourcing crude from North Dakota. Over the longer haul, that business should do fine because the world still needs North Dakota’s oil and its drillers will still need to move their product to markets. And if globally traded Brent crude regains some of its recently surrendered premium to the domestic WTI, Global’s “virtual pipeline” to the East Coast will face less competition once again. As is, the partnership pays a well-supported 7.2% yield growing at roughly 8% annually. Buy GLP below $50.  

9. Delek Logistics (NYSE: DKL)

The refinery logistics partner derives the bulk of its revenue from long-term, fixed-price contracts with its sponsor, which operates two refineries and a chain of filling stations in the South. A crude pipeline linking northeast Texas to the Gulf is an additional and increasingly important source of profits. The  distribution offers a current 5.6% annualized yield, and the partnership aims to increase it by 10% or more annually. This is another “downstream” business poised to benefit from the higher fuel demand likely as a result of low prices. Buy DKL below $42.

10. CVR Refining (NYSE: CVRR)

Most refiners’ margins have been squeezed by the recent slump in fuel prices paralleling the crash in crude. But there’s no justification for the disproportionate losses inflicted on CVRR, which operates two efficient, highly profitable refineries near the Cushing, Oklahoma crude hub. The next set of quarterly results is likely to prove lackluster but not disastrous, as the market price action might imply. The time to buy a variable distribution MLP like this operating in an industry with highly volatile margins is when those margins are weak, as is now the case. Over the longer run, the partnership sponsored by Carl Icahn should be able to generate annual yields of 15% or more based on the current price. Buy CVRR below $26.

This year, we’re also rolling out several thematic lists based on the attributes commonly sought out by MLP investors. The lists are culled from our current recommendations, and should help readers find investment ideas matching their inclinations.

High Yield

Vanguard Natural Resources (NASDAQ: VNR) – 19%

CVR Refining (NYSE: CVRR) – 15.2%

Navios Maritime Partners (NYSE: NMM) – 13.8%

Capital Products Partners (NASDAQ: CPLP) – 10.4%

Memorial Production Partners (NASDAQ: MEMP) – 13.7%

UBS ETRACS 2xMonthly Leveraged Long Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index ETN (NYSE: MLPL) – 12.2%

Exterran Partners (NASDAQ: EXLP) – 9.6%

Regency Energy Partners (NYSE: RGP) – 8.7%

DCP Midstream (NYSE: DPM) – 7.5%

Targa Resources Partners (NYSE: NGLS) -7.1%

Global Partners (NYSE: GLP) – 7.1%

Hi-Crush Partners (NYSE: HCLP) – 7.0%

AmeriGas (NYSE: APU) – 6.8%

Do keep in mind that higher yields typically come with higher risk. In particular, see “The Nicest Yields in Hell” before buying VNR or MEMP.

High Distribution Growth

Targa Resources (NYSE: TRGP)

EQT Midstream Partners (NYSE: EQM)

Sunoco Logistics (NYSE: SXL)

Hi-Crush Partners (NYSE: HCLP)

SemGroup (NYSE: SEMG)

Williams (NYSE: WMB)

Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE)

Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE: MMP)

Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI)

Delek Logistics Partners (NYSE: DKL)

Just be aware that a tiny but fast-growing yield may never catch up to, or return as much, as a larger yield increasing more slowly.

Scale and Diversification       

Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE)

Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI)

Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD)

Williams (NYSE: WMB)

Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP)

Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE: MMP)

TransCanada (NYSE: TRP)

Spectra Energy (NYSE: SE)

Sunoco Logistics (NYSE: SXL)

Plains All American Pipeline (NYSE: PAA)

These midstream infrastructure players fill essential roles and provide plenty of longer-term security.

No K-1’s

Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI)

Williams (NYSE: WMB)

Spectra Energy (NYSE: SE)

TransCanada (NYSE: TRP)

Targa Resources (NYSE: TRGP)

Navios Maritime Partners (NYSE: NMM)

Capital Products Partners (NASDAQ: CPLP)

GasLog Partners (NYSE: GLOP)

Scorpio Tankers (NYSE: STNG)

Teekay Tankers (NYSE: TNK)

EnLink (NYSE: ENLC)

SemGroup (NYSE: SEMG)

Western Refining (NYSE: WNR)

UGI (NYSE: UGI)

EQT (NYSE: EQT)

Exterran Holdings (NYSE: EXH)

All of the names above pay dividends rather than partnership distributions, and while the former tend to be taxable in the year received they are often eligible for the reduced rate on qualifying dividends. These recommendations are also more suitable for tax-advantaged retirement accounts.  

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