Facts and Figures Over Fears

That’s more like it. The Alerian MLP Index is up almost 9% since Jan. 13, taking its cue from the recent bounce in oil prices. It also hasn’t hurt that most MLPs have now reported quarterly results — and mostly provided forecasts demonstrating their relative resilience.

MLPs have now mostly erased the losses suffered in the first two weeks of the year, which in turn reversed the late December gains after the tax-loss selling dried up.

There’s no better antidote for fear of the unknown than having the specifics, and the avalanche of quarterly and annual results has helpfully obliged. This month’s comprehensive Portfolio Update has news on every one of our recommendations. That’s a total of some 8,000 words on 45 different investments.

The bottom line in almost every case is that distribution growth has slowed either not at all or (in a couple of cases) modestly, and most infrastructure projects are proceeding without delay and with full commitment from the energy producers paying the freight.

A growing proportion of our portfolios has, in fact, been devoted to downstream plays that tend to see business pick up and margins expand when energy prices drop. This month’s New Buys adds more downstream exposure via refinery logistics specialist PBF Logistics (NYSE: PBFX), a recent IPO offering a sturdy yield secured by long-term, inflation-indexed contracts with its sponsor.

We’ve added several such names in recent months, while more recently purging the portfolio of its two remaining upstream picks and sole coal miner. While U.S. energy producers have been hit hard by recent declines in crude, coal and natural gas prices in recent months, there are reasons to believe the world still needs U.S. energy, and it is the midstream and downstream sectors that are best placed to supply it.

We have two In Focus pieces analyzing the current state of play, one dealing specifically with the resurgent Brent/WTI crude spread and the other more generally with the current domestic crude glut.

All that oil isn’t going to be of much help to U.S. drillers, but will do wonders for owners of the increasingly scarce storage capacity. For any given level of energy prices, there will be winners as well as losers. You just have to know where to look. 

Portfolio Action Summary

  • Alliance Holdings (NASDAQ: AHGP) downgraded to Sell in Aggressive Portfolio
  • PBF Logistics (NYSE: PBFX) added to Growth Portfolio. Buy below $28 
  • Buckeye Partners (NYSE: BPL) upgraded to Buy below $83 in Aggressive Portfolio
  • DCP Midstream (NYSE: DPM) upgraded to Buy below $42 in Growth Portfolio
  • Oiltanking Partners (NYSE: OILT) dropped from Conservative Portfolio after merger with EPD
  • Plains All American (NYSE: PAA) buy limit reduced to $58 in Conservative Portfolio
  • Plains GP Holdings (NYSE: PAGP) buy limit reduced to $30 in Growth Portfolio
  • Shell Midstream Partners (NYSE: SHLX) downgraded to Hold in Growth Portfolio
  • Teekay Tankers (NYSE: TNK) buy limit increased to $7.50 in Aggressive Portfolio
  • TransCanada (NYSE: TRP) buy limit reduced to $52 in Conservative Portfolio

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