The Luckiest Bank in a Lucky Country

With no recession in more than two decades, Australia is often called “The Lucky Country.” While most of the world muddled through the Great Recession, Australia rode the global resources boom—that was luck. The country’s banks also dodged the housing crisis by maintaining tighter lending standards than their American or European peers; the Royal Bank of Australia lifted interest rates in 2003, when the rest of the world cut them. Those two moves were just good policy.

A stable economic environment produces plenty of winners, but banks are probably the biggest, especially in Australia’s market of limited competition.

The country’s oldest financial institution, Westpac Banking Corp., is one of only four major banks in Australia and New Zealand. Its dominant market share gives Westpac, which offers retail and business banking as well as investment management and lending services, incredible pricing power as well as economies of scale.

GIE Westpac GraphicThanks to strong growth over the past decade, the bank’s net income rose 11.4%, on average, while earnings per share grew 6.5%, on average, boosting the bank’s annual dividend from 72 cents in 2005 to $1.35 today. With shares currently yielding 5.5%, Westpac’s (NYSE: WBK) dividend will continue growing as the bank expands its footprint at home and abroad.

A History of Growth

Four major players may dominate Australia’s banking market, but a host of smaller banks also operate there.

In 2008, Westpac merged with St. George Bank in what was then the biggest transaction in the history of Australia’s banking industry, making the combined entity the largest financial institution based on its stock market value. At the time, new CEO Gail Kelly had been at the helm less than a year. The deal swelled the bank’s customer base to more than 10 million and beefed up the number of Westpac’s branches in Australia to more than 1,200. It also boosted the bank’s share of the home-lending market to 23% from 13% when Kelly started.

Under Kelly’s leadership, the bank also expanded its presence in Asia. Last year Kelly announced that the bank planned to increase Asian revenue sevenfold, up to $750 million within five years. That goal isn’t nearly as ambitious as it sounds; the bank’s revenue in the region shot up 33% in 2013, with a similarly strong performance last year as Westpac expanded its operations in China, Fiji and Papua New Guinea.

That’s an impressive performance from a woman who started out as a South African bank teller in the late 1990s. Although Kelly retired last month, new CEO Brian Hartzer is pushing ahead with the Asian expansion strategy.

What Lies Ahead

Even as the bank continues to flourish, it’s attractively valued because Asian economic worries have hit Australian banks hard. With China’s economy slowing after a decade-long hot streak, many prognosticators worry Australia’s economy will hit the skids  as demand for commodities lags.

Australia’s mining industry has slowed down significantly over the past two years, particularly because slumping iron ore prices dragged down earnings at many of the nation’s mining companies. Still, Westpac consistently prospered throughout it all, thanks largely to its expanding Asian presence.

Although it’s unlikely, the bank could fall victim to an Australian mortgage crisis if the domestic economy continues slowing, for precisely the same reasons Westpac weathered the Great Recession so well. Although Australian home prices have been rising for several years now, banks such as Westpac stuck to solid underwriting standards so that loan-to-value ratios are relatively low. The mortgage market down under also differs from the U.S in that lenders can make good on any losses, so an apples-to-apples comparison isn’t really possible. And, in Westpac’s case, key measures of bank health, such as operating expense ratios and delinquent loans as a percentage of assets, are still robust.

Even with the potential economic weakness in Australia baked in, analysts still forecast the bank’s earnings per share to grow nearly 7% this year to $2.58, and that estimate has been rising over the past few months. 

The forecast for 2016 is similarly bullish, with earnings growth of at least 5% to $2.71, leaving plenty of upside for fatter dividends over the next few years.

So although the Australian economy faces some headwinds, Westpac’s commanding position in the region and its growing Asian footprint still make it the luckiest bank in a lucky country.

Buy Westpac Banking Corp. under $34.

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