The Reemerging Celtic Tiger

Ireland had much more to celebrate this week than St. Patrick’s Day: It’s now officially the fastest growing economy in Europe, and investors are seeing green.

Ireland’s economy grew by 4.8% last year, and it increased exports by 10.5%. The United Kingdom only grew by 2.6%, and the 28-nation EU bloc is only expected to grow 1.7% this year. Speaking to the Irish Times, Goldman Sachs senior European economist Kevin Daly says he expects a similar growth rate in 2015 for Ireland and believes that the economy has the “scope to grow rapidly for some time without overheating.”

Ireland is also benefiting from various trends that we identified several months back when we began devising our European investment portfolio. The strengthening of the dollar and the weakening of the euro is making Ireland’s products more competitive in non-euro countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States, which are Ireland’s two largest export markets.

As we noted in our latest issue of Global Income Edge, we are excited that the world is starting to grow at a marginally faster clip, and after the United States, Europe offers many new potential investment opportunities as its economy continues to recover. 

But investors should understand that this is the beginning of the beginning of a recovery. We still favor investments that have a consumer defensive focus in Europe. Companies that have pricing power such as utilities, healthcare, banks and telecoms will benefit most in the early parts of the recovery which is expected to be choppy for the next few years.

For subscribers, please find firms in our portfolio that will do well from the luck of the Irish.

Portfolio

It may not be surprising, given Vodafone’s (NYSE: VOD) sheer size of 434 million customers around the world, that they also operate in Ireland. And it says it is seeing steady improvement in the region, and “strong data demand and a more stable pricing environment” in Europe.

We believe Ireland’s renewed economic growth – as with other parts of Europe – will benefit telecommunications firms such as Vodafone and lead to higher earnings. Vodafone is Global Income Edge’s #1 Best Buy in its Conservative Portfolio.

The firm can benefit from increased consolidation in the European telecom market; and stimulus from the European Central Bank promises to speed up the region’s recovery and improve the fortunes of firms doing business there. With a 5.6% dividend yield, VOD is a buy up to $39. 

Also, Salmon producer Marine Harvest (NYSE: MHG), another Global Income Edge favorite, has unveiled a 22 million euro investment earmarked for Ireland in the next five years that could create 250 jobs. The company spokesman said the single biggest issue the firm has is that the firm “cannot meet the demand of our product.”  

Marine Harvest operations in Ireland contribute over 15 million euros to the domestic economy annually, while some 800 Irish suppliers are currently doing business with the salmon farmer’s Irish operations, according to the company. We believe this is a win-win, as Marine Harvest is both creating jobs and new customers. Marine Harvest is Global Income Edge’s #2 Best Buy in its Aggressive Portfolio. With a dividend yield of 5.6%, MHG is a Buy up to 16.

As we noted in our latest issue, we believe Europeans such as the Irish will be toasting the economy’s recovery if all goes well with the European Central Bank’s stimulus program. And they may choose to make that toast with perhaps a pint of Guinness, a Tanqueray and tonic, or maybe even a shot of Don Julio tequila.

These come from British consumer beverage brand Diageo (NYSE: DEO), whose spirits, beers and wine are enjoyed on both sides of the pond. We believe investors could see an increase in value in the next 12 months as more and more countries in the European Union have reason to toast the recovery. With a dividend yield of 2.28%, DEO is a buy up to $130.

 

 

Stock Talk

Add New Comments

You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk OR create an account