Banking on a Rising Middle Class

Brazil has been something of a basket case lately, with about as much bad news coming out of the country as good. Although that’s turned off some emerging-markets investors, the country still offers many good companies if you’re selective about where you put your money.

But let’s get the bad news out of the way first. With slow growth, inflation and corruption, an economic tug-of-war has been going on in the country. Brazilian GDP grew a surprising 0.3% in the fourth quarter, despite most analysts predicting a contraction, though inflation was running at better than 8% in March.

Despite that, the country is still stable both politically and economically. Although antigovernment protests occur daily in Brazil and relations between Rousseff and the country’s Congress are notably chilly (sound familiar?), life goes on. The growing Brazilian middle class added 6 million households between 2000 and 2010. That middle class is often cited as a prime reason for the growing political turbulence, because citizens with economic skin in the game will tolerate only so many shenanigans.

GIE April 15 Banco graphic

And though major credit-rating organizations downgraded the state-run energy sector, they’re amazingly sanguine about other areas. In February, Moody’s cut state-run oil company Petrobras’s rating to Ba2 but maintained Brazil’s sovereign investment-grade rating. Although Fitch expects 2015 to be a tough year for the country’s financial sector, the credit agency continues to give Brazil’s banks a high rating based on a strong fourth-quarter performance and positive economic indicators.

Insuring the Masses

That’s good news for Banco Bradesco, which is not only a sound bank but, with a current 9.25% yield, also a great stock for income investors. The same growing middle class that is holding the political establishment’s feet to the fire is also driving the bank’s growth.

The nation’s third-largest bank, with nearly 75 million customers and more than 4,700 branches throughout the country, holds about 15% of all Brazilian bank deposits. As poverty declined and a growing number of Brazilians accumulated savings, the bank’s total deposits rose from around $25 billion at the beginning of the last decade to nearly $150 billion today.

Banco Bradesco (NYSE: BBD) has also developed a thriving insurance business to become the largest provider in Brazil, another pleasant side effect of the nation’s improving standard of living. As more Brazilians buy homes, drive cars and have livelihoods to protect, their need for insurance becomes more apparent. Still, less than a third of the bank’s customers—a microcosm of Brazil—have any sort of insurance. With that clear need, it’s little surprise that the bank’s insurance business has been averaging annual growth in the low teens and expects to grow between 12% and 15% this year.

That diverse product mix creates huge cross-selling opportunities, particularly because the bank continues to add new products, such as credit cards, as the financial needs of its customers grow. In the years to come, Banco Bradesco’s revenue mix of 70% from banking and 30% from insurance should continue shifting, with the institution’s bottom line relying less on loan interest. That will increasingly shield the bank from the potentially adverse effects of falling interest rates and shifting political winds.

State Cuts Are Bradesco’s Gains

Speaking of winds, the bank is poised to catch an updraft from the public’s discontent with the government. To ensure her re-election in November, President Dilma Rousseff resorted to increasingly populist measures, one of which was inducing state banks to make incredibly cheap loans. As a result, those state banks issued nearly 75% of new loans in the country over the past few years.

That lending Carnival is coming to an end, though, as the government is forced to rein in its spending. To preserve Brazil’s credit rating, Rousseff has said she will do whatever it takes to meet the country’s 2015 fiscal target. That’s going to involve a huge spending cut, reducing the government’s subsidies to state banks and allowing private banks such as Banco Bradesco to compete more effectively in the new loan market. In fact, the bank expects its loan book to grow between 5% and 9% this year, likely beating last year’s 6.5% growth.

That’s left analysts extremely optimistic about the bank’s prospects. After earning $3.03 per share in 2014, the consensus is for earnings per share of $3.40 this year and $3.78 in 2016. Revenue is expected to grow 11% annually over the next few years, while the dividend should jump from a total payout of $1.01 per share last year to $1.27 next year.

With growth from a combination of traditional banking and an expanding menu of other financial offerings, Banco Bradesco should be a Brazilian cash cow for years to come and rates a Buy up to $14.

Stock Talk

MarthaD

MarthaD

I am enjoying GIE, especially because it gives me some non energy options! Since you are profiling Banco Bradesco does that mean that you will add it to one of your two portfolios? Thanks. M

Robert Frick

Bob Frick

Hi Martha,

There seems to be a glitch in our portfolios online, but Banco Bradesco is officially in our Aggressive Portfolio. You can find it there in the issue proper, and we’ll get it in the online portfolio ASAP.

Thanks!

– Bob

Curtis C

Curtis C

I was excited reading about BBD, but when I added up all the dividends for the last 12 months, I only got a yield of about 4.3% vs. your 9.25%. Did I miss something?

Thanks, CC

Richard Stavros

Richard Stavros

Hi Curtis –
I can confirm it is a 9% dividend yield. But you’re not alone in having initially arrived at two results.

We came across the same problem prior to publication of the BBD piece when we found that 2 different finance sites were reporting two different dividend yield numbers for BBD.

We also did the calculations by hand, had an outside analyst do it by hand, and then discussed the issue with our data providers to see if it was a data error. So, we know how you feel – you didn’t miss anything – it’s something peculiar to BBD in how they also issue special dividends throughout the year is what we concluded.

We found that the difference in dividend yield results in whether you apply the special dividends or not that the firm paid. And our data provider uses twelve month trailing dividend yield – where some market data providers only look at only what’s reported over the last few quarters.

Our data provider Y Charts, Morning Star and various other finance Sites all reflected the same 9 % yield number at the time of publication. I have also just this moment re-checked and our data provider and various finance Sites continue to show a 9% yield.

I hope that was helpful.

All the best –

Richard

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